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  • #16
    Re: bolt, blake in london 2012

    Originally posted by ATK
    Over that past 4 years I think Bolt has reached a lever of comfort where no one is putting pressure on him and he can just relax and push hard.
    If you are talking about the 100, you must have seen a different final than I did. Bolt lost it because he did not have that comfort level and needed to get a better start than he had gotten in the last 24 months.

    If you are talking about the 200, 19.19 ~ 19.27; 0.08 seconds across two different races is not a clear indication of dominance. And, which athlete is likely to make more progress over the next ten months?

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    • #17
      Re: bolt, blake in london 2012

      Originally posted by 26mi235
      Originally posted by ATK
      Over that past 4 years I think Bolt has reached a lever of comfort where no one is putting pressure on him and he can just relax and push hard.
      If you are talking about the 100, you must have seen a different final than I did. Bolt lost it because he did not have that comfort level and needed to get a better start than he had gotten in the last 24 months.

      If you are talking about the 200, 19.19 ~ 19.27; 0.08 seconds across two different races is not a clear indication of dominance. And, which athlete is likely to make more progress over the next ten months?
      Only speaking on the 200, and Im confused on what you talking about with dominance and progression.
      Avante said put someone next to Bolt and no telling what he can run, as in Bolt has never been challenged in his 200's so when he is he will run faster.
      Im saying that since he broke out in 2008 he has never been challenged in a 200m and he is in a comfort zone now where no one is around him going down the straight. If Blake was to be in front of him off the curve, Bolt would be out of his comfort zone, and I think that he would actually loose focus instead of blow past him. Just my thought though. Its never happened to the new Bolt.

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      • #18
        Re: bolt, blake in london 2012

        OK, I see what your meaning is and I was taking it a little bit differently. Thanks for explaining.

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        • #19
          Re: bolt, blake in london 2012

          Originally posted by Cam9412
          Originally posted by vip
          I'm sure 2012 will find a way to disappoint all of us by encouraging these sprinters to duck and dodge each other as much as possible. You know, like every year.
          And hopefully no one will get injured. I'm kind of ready to see Tyson back and running again along with others.
          Me too! I hope that his surgery fixed the hip problem that he was having.

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: bolt, blake in london 2012

            nicest person wrote:

            "What exactly was ValleyRunner's reasoning/rationale for why he thinks Ryan Bailey is the best American threat to Bolt/Blake?"

            I think its more from his potential to step up to the elite level with a Bolt and Gay and now Blake. Bailey is fastest ever 21 and under runner at 100 meters.

            From what I know, Bailey ran his 9.88 and 20.10 coming off surgery that delayed his training start prior to the 2010 season and he made some major technical improvement over the course of the season but his fitness and strength levels were not near his potential. Bailey suffered a couple of injuries this past winter and spring, hammy and serious sprained ankle so I don't think

            Bailey is also joining Dix in LA with John Smith. He has always been a small team, group or on his own kind of guy so this will be interesting to see how he does with the likes of Dix and Thompson to train with.

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            • #21
              Re: bolt, blake in london 2012

              Blakes 21

              9.82 & 19.26

              Bolt 21

              9,69 & 19.67

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              • #22
                Re: bolt, blake in london 2012

                Originally posted by Gordon18
                Blakes 21

                9.82 & 19.26

                Bolt 21

                9,69 & 19.67
                Bolt was 21 when he ran 19.30s (-0.9m/s).

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                • #23
                  Re: bolt, blake in london 2012

                  Helps me even more.

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                  • #24
                    Re: bolt, blake in london 2012

                    Yea, I dunno Valley, first of all, as Gordon and Loetse pointed out, both Blake and especially Bolt were already much faster than Ryan Bailey as age 21 and under, that claim of yours was just incorrect.

                    I do agree that this Ryan guy seems to have decent potential to be a fast sprinter in the future, but, I just don't agree that he's on the same level of talent as guys like Usain Bolt or Yohan Blake, and I don't think he ever will be (just my personal opinion).

                    That said, I think people are overestimating what Yohan Blake will be able to do in the 100 meters a bit. As soon as he ran his 19.26, people started saying how they couldn't wait to see Yohan blast a 9.5x in the 100m next season. In my opinion, Blake is just plain better at the 200m than he is at the 100m. As in, it's not an issue of him just needing a few more 100m races to bring his 100m time down to be equivalent to his 200m performance. Nah, I think he's just plain way better at the 200 than he is at the 100, just like Michael Johnson was way better at the 200 than he was at the 100 (albeit blake is better at the 100 than MJ was, but, in terms of discrepency between 100m and 200m performance value, you know what I mean).

                    To me it seems like, Blake will probably improve, slowly, a little bit, in the 100m, just as he has been, and inch down into the 9.7's (or if he gets a big tailwind maybe get off a lucky 9.6-high but still 9.7x-basic when converted for wind type of performance), but, I don't see it necessarily being the case that he'll suddenly be dropping 9.5x-basic bombs all up in this just because he ran a sicko 200m dash.

                    From what I can tell, it seems like Blake has always, for over a year now, had the ability to be a 19-flat 200m guy, you could see it in his straightaway performance in his 19.78 run, where he turned one of the slowest, most jerky, off balance, garbagy curve runs of all time into a whopping 19.78, when in all seriousness it looked like it was going to be about a 20.5 run coming off the curve, and then he did basically the exact same thing, except ran the curve a little better, for his 19.26 run, and ran the straight maybe slightly faster as well, but mainly just improved his curve a bit from how awful his curve was in his 19.78 run.

                    That said, he still has a lot of room for improvement in his 200m curve, since his curve was still fairly shitty even in his 19.26 run. So, I think he can go 19-flat, or even a little faster, as he improved his curve, but, I don't think that that means he will be running 9.5-basic 100m times just because of that, given that the main reason for his incredible 200m times is the SECOND HALF of his 200m runs (the straightaway), where he simply holds much better speed endurance than any of the other 200m runners. It's not his blinding top speed through the curve the way it was for Tyson Gay/Usain Bolt, it's his lack of deceleration during the deceleration-phase of the race in the final 80 meters of the race where he exploits his edge. During the curve, he's still just a mediocre guy, it's only on the straight that he turns into superman.

                    So, that's why I don't think he will necessarily be anywhere near as big of a superstar in the 100m as he will be in the 200m. He's not about raw top speed. Bolt is. Rather, instead, he's about unrivaled speed endurance, which he is able to exploit in the 200, not the 100, which is why his 200m times are so much better than his 100m times.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: bolt, blake in london 2012

                      So, that's why I don't think he will necessarily be anywhere near as big of a superstar in the 100m as he will be in the 200m. He's not about raw top speed. Bolt is. Rather, instead, he's about unrivaled speed endurance, which he is able to exploit in the 200, not the 100, which is why his 200m times are so much better than his 100m times.

                      ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~

                      The 200m is all about speed endurance just ask....

                      Xavier Carter...44.53
                      Usain Bolt...45.3 as a teenager
                      Wallace Spearmon...45.2-ish
                      Emmett Taylor...NCAA 200m champ, a 400m guy.
                      Tyson Gay...sub 45.00
                      Kenteris...converted 400m man
                      Adolph Plummer...a National 200m champ. a 400m guy.
                      Mike Marsh...45.05
                      MJ...WR400
                      Henry Carr...WR 4X4 anchor
                      George Rhoden...NCAA 200/400 champ.
                      LaShawn Merritt...sub20.00, a 400m guy.
                      Tyree Washington ...20.0?, a 400m guy.
                      Danny Everett...20.0ish, a 400m guy.
                      Pitero Mennea...Oly 4x4 anchor
                      Roy Martin ....sub 45.0 split in HS
                      John Regis...Great Britian 200m record holder...43.5r
                      Tommie Smith...WR400
                      Yohan Blake...sub 46.00split as a HSer.
                      Bryshon Nellum...Cal State 200/400 record holder
                      Allyson Felix!

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: bolt, blake in london 2012

                        It's uncontroversial to say that 100m guys that can run a good 200m are likely to run a better 400m than 100m guys that can't run a good 200m.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: bolt, blake in london 2012

                          nicest person ever wrote:

                          "Yea, I dunno Valley, first of all, as Gordon and Loetse pointed out, both Blake and especially Bolt were already much faster than Ryan Bailey as age 21 and under, that claim of yours was just incorrect."

                          Actually nicest using the standard for age determination "end of the year age on 12-31" such as with Juniors both Bolt and Blake were 22 when they ran those marks. Blake's best LAST year when compared to Bailey at the same age is inferior to Bailey in the 100. A friend of mine also reminded me that Bailey had to miss all of last fall and winter recovering from a major wrist surgery from a fall he suffered in the spring of 09 when he was unable to train until Jan 2010.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: bolt, blake in london 2012

                            I mean, Bolt ran a 19.93 as a 17 year old lol... and he ran a 9.69, turning his body completely sideways before the finish line, with no tailwind... as a 21 year old... and he ran a 19.30... into a headwind... as a 21 year old... you can't honestly tell me you think that Ryan's performances have outclassed that, all technicalities aside, it's just not even remotely close. Bolt is like a level above a level above a level above a level above Bailey.

                            That said, Bailey is very talented and may end up being a top sprinter some day, I just don't see him being a serious threat to Bolt in London next year. Unless Bolt is injured or grossly out of shape or something. If Bolt is in true Bolt form, then I mean, unless Ryan Bailey can run 18.8 or 9.4 or something, I don't see him being all that huge of a threat. At least, not within the next 12 months.

                            ::shrugs::

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Re: bolt, blake in london 2012

                              9.88 Ryan Bailey 7808 days
                              9.82 Yohan Blake 7925 days
                              9.76 Usain Bolt 7926 days
                              9.72 Usain Bolt 7954 days
                              9.69 Usain Bolt 8031 days

                              Worth mentioning if Yohan Blake had been born six days later than he was his marks of 10.11 in 2007 and 9.93 in 2009 would be hugely superior to the world bests for youths and juniors. Obviously he ran those times at a younger age on the calender than some athletes whose performances are eligible. Meanwhile Bolt is the age group record holder at 200m from 15 to 18. It's a spurious argument to say Bailey ran faster than the Jamaicans at a younger age. Alonso Edward ran faster as a 19 year old than Bolt did too. So what. He still lost the race by six metres. This year Rakieem Salaam became the youngest American to break ten seconds. Is it even significant? Jeff Demps shares the world junior record at 10.01. By the logic of this thread he ought to be a threat to Blake. Is he?

                              Youngest Americans to 10.00

                              10.00 Travis Padgett 19 years 200 days
                              10.00 Carl Lewis 19 years 320 days

                              9.97 Tim Montgomery 19 years 113 days (not ratified)

                              9.97 Carl Lewis 21 years 317 days
                              9.97 Justin Gatlin 21 years 186 days
                              9.97 Mookie Salaam 21 years 66 days
                              9.96 Travis Padgett 21 years 149 days
                              9.95 Ryan Bailey 21 years 138 days
                              9.93 Walter Dix 21 years 128 days
                              9.88 Ryan Bailey 21 years 138 days

                              The marks by Carl Lewis in 1981 and 1983 are clearly superior to times run two or three decades afterwards.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Re: bolt, blake in london 2012

                                Ryan Bailey, the mystery man. A 9.88 guy, a world ranking in the 200m. If he's healthy and still wanting it in 2012....hmmm?

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