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Kenya pre-picks Oly team - What if USA did?

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  • tm71
    replied
    Re: Kenya pre-picks Oly team - What if USA did?

    excellent mental exercise. will it happen ?

    this year's pre selected on the us team, wild cards based on the 2009 world titles
    men's 400 m - merritt - SILVER
    men's 400 h - clement - eliminated in semis
    men's LJ - phillips - GOLD !
    men's SP - cantwell - 4th
    men's deca - hardee - GOLD
    so 3/5 men won a medal, two of them repeated their gold medal performence

    women's 200 m - felix - BRONZE
    women's 400 m - richards-ross - 7th
    women's LJ - reese - GOLD
    so 2/3 women won a medal, one of them gold.
    overall 5/8 won a medal and three of them gold, not a bad return.

    even though it totally makes sense to guaraentee a spot (barring injury) to this year's nine individual world champions the us had in deagu, it will not happen for next year's olympic games.

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  • Marlow
    replied
    Re: Kenya pre-picks Oly team - What if USA did?

    [quote=Master Po]
    Originally posted by "Bruce Kritzler":a5lm0btq
    I'd say the method currently used worked very well this year.
    Agree -- One good piece of evidence for this is Centrowitz. Would anyone have "pre-picked" him for the WC team? I acknowledge it's only one piece of evidence, but it is a good one.[/quote:a5lm0btq]
    You missed the point. He would NOT have been pre-picked, but as the Trials winner, he CERTAINLY would have been on the team! Not every event would have a pre-picked athlete, and certainly there wouldn't be more than one per event (my initial post notwithstanding), so that leaves two spots open for the New Stars.

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  • DrJay
    replied
    Re: Kenya pre-picks Oly team - What if USA did?

    Oliver would have been a shoo-in. He got 4th in Daegu. Well, 5th, but for the DQ. That is to say, he disappointed. I think many pre-selected athletes would be ones we'd expect to medal.

    It would be instructive for someone without an encyclopedic knowledge of who won every event at the OG and WC to go back, review the pre-OG/WC season and Annual edition, pick the ones they'd give a pass for the next year, then see how that pick really did the next year. Might take a bit of time to do it.

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  • Master Po
    replied
    Re: Kenya pre-picks Oly team - What if USA did?

    Originally posted by Bruce Kritzler
    I'd say the method currently used worked very well this year.
    Agree -- One good piece of evidence for this is Centrowitz. Would anyone have "pre-picked" him for the WC team? I acknowledge it's only one piece of evidence, but it is a good one.

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  • Bruce Kritzler
    replied
    Re: Kenya pre-picks Oly team - What if USA did?

    I'd say the method currently used worked very well this year.

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  • Marlow
    replied
    Re: Kenya pre-picks Oly team - What if USA did?

    Originally posted by polevaultpower
    No way would I pre-pick Brad Walker. He hasn't been up to par for years now.
    Except for the fact that he's our only serious threat right now. Sure he could no-height (as usual this year), but he could also pop a big one, which right now our other top jumpers can't. He's a high-risk/high-reward guy and we can certainly afford to 'waste' one of the spots on him, since whoever the other two are (top 2 at the OT) most probably have no shot at a medal anyway. If we were flush with 5.80-5.90 jumpers, I'd agree with you, but we're NOT!

    Here's the sad reality of USA mPVing this year

    5.84 19-2 Brad Walker
    5.72 18-9¼ Derek Miles
    Scott Roth
    Jeremy Scott
    5.65 18-6½ Jack Whitt
    5.63i 18-5½ Mark Hollis
    5.55 18-2½ Nick Mossberg
    5.52 18-1¼ Jacob Pauli
    5.51i 18-1 Jason Colwick
    Paul Litchfield

    Leave a comment:


  • polevaultpower
    replied
    Re: Kenya pre-picks Oly team - What if USA did?

    No way would I pre-pick Brad Walker. He hasn't been up to par for years now. But I'd be OK with pre-picking Jenn Suhr. At this point, she's our only serious medal contender in the men's or women's PV.

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  • Marlow
    replied
    Re: Kenya pre-picks Oly team - What if USA did?

    Originally posted by 72
    we tried preselected athletes as I recall a long time ago;it did not find favour generally and was scrapped.
    The USA has not done it for 50 years at least, so it's worth a shot now. If we don't like it, scrap it for the next Olympiad.

    Originally posted by 72
    As for trusting athletes, blimey, I dont do trusting sentimentality about athletes, whose ambitions, egos and general all round high competitiveness is not something that I would trust as far as objective selection for the National Team is concerned.
    It is precisely because they DO have "ambitions, egos and general all round high competitiveness" that I DO trust them to be in the best shape possible for the Games. It's in their own best interest!

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  • 72
    replied
    Re: Kenya pre-picks Oly team - What if USA did?

    we tried preselected athletes as I recall a long time ago;it did not find favour generally and was scrapped.

    As for trusting athletes, blimey, I dont do trusting sentimentality about athletes, whose ambitions, egos and general all round high competitiveness is not something that I would trust as far as objective selection for the National Team is concerned.

    Leave a comment:


  • Marlow
    replied
    Re: Kenya pre-picks Oly team - What if USA did?

    Originally posted by 72
    as for "fitness", no sir, too many possibilities of athletes playing silly buggers re lack of form; athletes are not the most objectively honest about themselves and their condition when selection issues come up.
    Here's a wild thought, but since anyone pre-selected would already be world-elite to begin with, wouldn't it be in their best interests to be fully fit at the Olympics? So, if they have achieved a 'show-fitness' mark, maybe we could, oh I don't know, TRUST them to know what they're doing, since they've done it before?

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  • 72
    replied
    Re: Kenya pre-picks Oly team - What if USA did?

    kamikaze is correct.
    Marlow' s arguments are full of holes( aren't I brave?) and I am not repeating the good sense talked by Kamikaze; we have tried various forms of pre-selection in the UK years ago; always seemed to cause fierce arguments; as for "fitness", no sir, too many possibilities of athletes playing silly buggers re lack of form; athletes are not the most objectively honest about themselves and their condition when selection issues come up.

    With vastly less elite quality athletes than the USA, we have tried in the UK all systems over the last 50 years except the first 3 at OT and they all have had supporters and opponents with some great rows involving athletes, officials and media.

    The current rules for UK athletes for selection for the London OG are "political", committee- led and complex and still people are chosen who do not truly meet their own rules with special rights given to the Chief National Coach for dispensations; with athletes performing till the last hours before the legal time runs out and then shouting about they should be selected even if they were NBG at the required meet and time.

    Also quoting Churchill, "the system( referring to parliamentary Government) is poor but show me something better". That applies to the USA system of first 3 past the post on the allotted days.

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  • lonewolf
    replied
    Re: Kenya pre-picks Oly team - What if USA did?

    Originally posted by DrJay
    Had to re-read it a few times--maybe I'm just slow today-- but I think dj's post was subtle tongue-in-cheek. The "meet" sounds like the OT (or USATF for WC years.) Quite good dead-pan post.
    Thats the way I read it also.

    Leave a comment:


  • Marlow
    replied
    Re: Kenya pre-picks Oly team - What if USA did?

    Originally posted by kamikaze7
    A lousy idea for any country
    A know it's anti-American to suggest this proposal, but to paraphrase Winston Churchill:
    Pre-selection is the worst form of picking a team, except for the fact that's it's better than all the other forms.
    "Three-past-the-post" picks the best 3 THAT day - unfortunately the Olympics are NOT that day. If you want 3 with the best chance on the day of the Olympics, you have to pick the best ones OVERALL. Pre-selection is fair because the athletes had to have already performed superbly on the BIGGEST stage (the Trials are NOT the biggest stage).

    The obvious problem with pre-selection is that they probably won't compete at the Trials, which then dilutes the meet, but do we want the best TRIALS we can have or the best TEAM we can have? I believe there will still be tremendous interest in the Trials because of all the spots that would still be open.

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  • kamikaze7
    replied
    Re: Kenya pre-picks Oly team - What if USA did?

    A lousy idea for any country

    1. This is a sport where an athletes form can vary significantly from one season to another: Alonso Edward, Renny Quow, Daniel Bailey etc can attest to this. Therefore selection must be based on current form,

    2. Some runners will loose motivation if they are not required to maintain their form prior to the Olympics.

    3. Some runners will hide injuries and go to the Olympics at the expense of a fitter athlete

    4. Runners will cry foul if exluded at the expense of another runner whose form is iffy. Do you remember Jon Drummond versus Carl Lewis in 1996 ? I can see Monzavous vs Tyson Gay in 2012 if your proposal is ever used.

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  • Marlow
    replied
    Re: Kenya pre-picks Oly team - What if USA did?

    Originally posted by gm
    Just one question, Marlow -- who the heck is JRR? JR Rider?
    That's SRR's twin sister, Jandra (married Ross's twin brother!). She's in all of Sandra's races, but is completely overshadowed by her sister, which is probably why you've never heard of her. Her 400 PR is only .001 (good photo-reader!) slower than SRR, and she's several years younger (Guinness world record for longest delivery), so she has more upside.

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