Olympic shotput preview

[Rye Catcher]

2011 produced 10 throwers over 70'. Of those 10, Adam Nelson is the oldest at 36 and David Storl is the youngest at 21. I include the really young tigers, who at 17 and 19 are really more primed for the '16 games. 2012 is going to be an interesting year for the shotput.

............................2012 OLYMPIC PRO-FORMA.............................
................................. 2011 MARKS.......................................ROUGH
FT...............M..............NAME .................CTRY.......DOB..........AGE
72.87.......22.21.....Dylan Armstrong......CAN......15/01/81.....31
72.51.......22.10.....Andrei Mikhnevich.... BLR.......12/7/76......35
72.47.......22.09.....Adam Nelson.............USA........7/7/75......36
72.47.......22.09.....Reese Hoffa...............USA.......8/10/77.....34
72.41.......22.07.....Christian Cantwell.....USA......30/09/80.....31
71.46.......21.78.....David Storl................GER......27/07/90.....21
71.39.......21.76.....Ryan Whiting.............USA......24/11/86.....25
70.87.......21.60.....Tomasz Majewski......POL......30/08/81.....31
70.37.......21.45.....Maksim Sidorov........RUS.......13/05/86.....25
70.21.......21.40.....Carlos Véliz...............CUB........12/8/87....24
66.86.......20.38.....Jacko Gill..................NZL ......20/12/94....17
66.57.......20.29.....Ryan Crouser............USA.......18/12/92....19

[gh]

Re: Olympic shotput preview

year in, year out, there are few events that match this one for drama and excitement (take that, women's 800!) :mrgreen:

[Marlow]

Re: Olympic shotput preview

year in, year out, there are few events that match this one for drama and excitement (take that, women's 800!) :mrgreen:

Indeed - who always know who the primes suspects are, but it never turns out the way we expect!
The USofA is looking good as usual, but didn't work out so great in 2011.

[jhc68]

Re: Olympic shotput preview

Although the same names appear year after year, it always seems to be a crapshoot which ones will prevail at the big meets.
I think the list ought to include Noah Bryant. He has competed very little the past couple of years but still has posted marks that, with a foot or two improvement, would put him right in the mix.

[Tuariki]

Re: Olympic shotput preview

I include the really young tigers, who at 17 and 19 are really more primed for the '16 games. 2012 is going to be an interesting year for the shotput.

66.86.......20.38.....Jacko Gill..................NZL ......20/12/94....17
66.57.......20.29.....Ryan Crouser............USA.......18/12/92....19

Gill will be at London, Crouser almost certainly won't. Which is a pity as I for one would love to see these two young "tigers" go at it head to head.

I guess we will have to make do with the possibility of Gill v Brzozowski v Vena at the world juniors in Barcelona

Brzozowski and Vena both would seem to have the potential to get close to 22m by then although Gill is also likely to be over 23m by the time of the world juniors.

[Rye Catcher]

Re: Olympic shotput preview

Although the same names appear year after year, it always seems to be a crapshoot which ones will prevail at the big meets.
I think the list ought to include Noah Bryant. He has competed very little the past couple of years but still has posted marks that, with a foot or two improvement, would put him right in the mix.

I agree, he is in the ballpark with a couple of feet improvement. Here are his best marks back to 2007.

2007.....67-5 1/2.....Noah Bryant (USC)
2008.....66-5 3/4.....Noah Bryant (unat)
2009.....66-5 3/4.....Noah Bryant (unat)
2010.....67-10¾.......Noah Bryant (unat)
2011.....68-3............Noah Bryant (unat)

[Tuariki]

Re: Olympic shotput preview

Although the same names appear year after year, it always seems to be a crapshoot which ones will prevail at the big meets.
I think the list ought to include Noah Bryant. He has competed very little the past couple of years but still has posted marks that, with a foot or two improvement, would put him right in the mix.

I agree, he is in the ballpark with a couple of feet improvement. Here are his best marks back to 2007.

2007.....67-5 1/2.....Noah Bryant (USC)
2008.....66-5 3/4.....Noah Bryant (unat)
2009.....66-5 3/4.....Noah Bryant (unat)
2010.....67-10¾.......Noah Bryant (unat)
2011.....68-3............Noah Bryant (unat)

Maybe the reasons Rye Catcher didn't include Noah Bryant is the same reason he didn't include the 6 other guys who threw further than Bryant - None of them had thrown 70 feet (21.34m).

And adding a couple feet improvement for Bryant when the past 5 years does nothing to suggest that this is in any way likely seems to be a bit of a nonsensical argument. Why stop at 2 feet? Why stop at Noah Bryant? Hundreds of athletes would be Olympic contenders if you give them a 3% "credit" on their best perfomrances.

In terms of the shot adding 3% as an indication of possible performances this year would be reasonable for Gill and Crouser given their youth - but not in my opinion for Bryant.

Also Byaynt's other big problem is the same as Crouser - he has to get past some pretty big and powerful dudes to get to London.

[26mi235]

Re: Olympic shotput preview

year in, year out, there are few events that match this one for drama and excitement (take that, women's 800!) :mrgreen:

Yes, it is the woman's hurdles of the field events... [although I am serious, the women's hurdles (short, not 400h) always seems to have a lot of competing talent and they go after it meet after meet.

[Per Andersen]

Re: Olympic shotput preview

The SP is an amazing event now and has been for a good while.

At this point I think Cantwell, Hoffa and Whiting will make the US team. Is Cantwell now 100% over his shoulder operation or has he peaked? No PR since 2004. Can Hoffa still improve at age 35? Time foe Whiting to take the next step.

I think Armstrong is still improving and certainly Storl is. Majewski can get over 22m (72-2 1/4).

So Armstrong or Storl for the Gold. There will be surprises though. I have known this since Komar in '72

[Throwers Podcast]

Re: Olympic shotput preview

Although the same names appear year after year, it always seems to be a crapshoot which ones will prevail at the big meets.
I think the list ought to include Noah Bryant. He has competed very little the past couple of years but still has posted marks that, with a foot or two improvement, would put him right in the mix.

As Noah's coach, I appreciate the sentiment and the name drop! As always, he's working for those feet and inches all the time. We are optimistic for this season.

That said, Cory Martin had a 72' effort a couple years ago and can do it again. Russ Winger is a guy who could catch one any time, as well.

On June 23-24th, any number of things could derail any of the favorites (off day, bad timing, nagging injury or bad weather, etc) and the 5th 6th 7th guys are not so far off the leaders.

It's been said by many coaches smarter than me - Making the US team in the Men's Shot is often at least as hard as making the medal stand once you get there.

[NormZylstra]

Re: Olympic shotput preview

That said, Cory Martin had a 72' effort a couple years ago and can do it again.

Now that he's moving back to Auburn I think he may get back to 22m.