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  • London medal predictions

    OK, check out the links on the front page for brave early-season podium picks.

  • #2
    Re: London medal predictions

    28 medals are predicted 15 for men and 13 for women for USA, so it looks like the 30 medal goal is very realistic.

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    • #3
      Re: London medal predictions

      bring back Doug Logan!

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      • #4
        W1500 - London

        W1500 will be interesting. Form Sheet shows no American medalists. We'll see if top 2011 US runners can move to that next level after last season.

        Mo Uceny (Ranked No. 1 in World for 2011), Jenny (Barringer) Simpson (2011 World Championship Winner) & Sharon Rowbury (Medalist in 2009 World Championships) all could challenge for a medal.

        The W1500 in Eugene ought to be one terrific race.

        May be difficult to keep at least one American off podium.

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        • #5
          Re: London medal predictions

          Most of those picks are rather safe so it's difficult to argue with them too much. However, I wouldn't predict Jamal in the 1500m. Even though she's won a couple of world titles, I don't fully trust her in non-paced tactical races and she's only broke four minutes once (in Rieti) in the past two seasons. I wouldn't be surprised to see another outsider winning again.

          I think Kipchoge said he's looking to do the 10,000m this summer. I'd tip him for a medal.
          http://twitter.com/Trackside2011

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          • #6
            Re: London medal predictions

            I'm pretty sure Jeylan has been overestimated since Daegu.....funny thing is he's not considered a big kicker (never having won anything on the kick before). I think Daegu final was his career perfect race......I'm tipping him not to medal and also perhaps not even on Ethiopian team. In the 5000m, Edwin Soi not anywhere near sure to make the Kenyan team; a bit of a speculator to predict him Olympic 5000m Gold......

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            • #7
              Re: London medal predictions

              Obergfoll in the javelin is a choice which needs a bit of justification. Apart from her silver in 2005, she's a perennial underperformer at the major championships.

              Don't really understand why Soi is the projected 5000m champion, unless the Olympics decide to rebrand themselves as the World Athletics Finals in the next few months.
              http://twitter.com/Trackside2011

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              • #8
                Re: London medal predictions

                Originally posted by nevetsllim
                Obergfoll in the javelin is a choice which needs a bit of justification. Apart from her silver in 2005, she's a perennial underperformer at the major championships.
                Obergföll started working with renowned sports psychologist Prof. Dr. Hans Eberspächer this year. If she gets her nerves under control she definitely is a medal contender and has the potential for gold.

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                • #9
                  Re: London medal predictions

                  I think Jamaica will duplicate Beijing but with more medals. They will sweep the 100m and 200m sprints for men and women. Spearmon silver in 200m? Gh must be dreaming. Did he not see the form Blake is already in. The guy looks even faster this yr. It's not even gonna be close. Spearmon will be way behind Blake and Bolt. Blake and Bolt will be run under 19.19 come London. Spearmon silver, i just can't wrap my head around this one. I don't even know if he will beat Dix. :lol: :lol: :lol:

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                  • #10
                    Re: London medal predictions

                    Originally posted by nevetsllim
                    Most of those picks are rather safe so it's difficult to argue with them too much. However, I wouldn't predict Jamal in the 1500m. Even though she's won a couple of world titles, I don't fully trust her in non-paced tactical races and she's only broke four minutes once (in Rieti) in the past two seasons. I wouldn't be surprised to see another outsider winning again.
                    Right, and Knobel is hardly a safe pick either

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                    • #11
                      Re: London medal predictions

                      To be honest, I'd hardly fall in line with even half of what I've seen in both combiled projected medal tables. Even in the case of my compatriot Kostas Filippidis in the PV, I could hardly tip him to make the top 5 whereas Dimitris Hondrokoukis is a much more realistic medal hope in the HJ.

                      I don't think Mo Farah will finish outside the top two in either distance and I'm most confident he's going to land at least a gold in London, as I'm also starting fancying Jeremy Wariner in the 400m again.

                      I was very impressed by Ryan Whiting in Istanbul and I don't think his win was anywhere near a flash in the pan, expecting him to follow up on that.

                      As concerns the men's 400mh, I can't see Dai Greene losing to Culson whereas Bershawn Jackson is a more dangerous opponent and I'd reckon with Angelo Taylor as well.

                      David Oliver looks back to his 2010 best with a 13.30 into a -3.2m/sec recently and I can't see him as back as third while I would reckon Jay Richardson to even win it - he's a huge talent with plenty of scope for improvement.

                      Judging by the pattern of recent majors, I wouldn't be surprised if none of the selected top three in the women's 1500m made the podium.

                      DeLoach is one to look for in the LJ behind Brittney Reese and I'm very confident that Aldama will at least medal in the TJ.

                      I'm also very sceptical over Obergfoll's championships mentality and I feel that Radcliffe will get that medal in the marathon.

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                      • #12
                        Re: London medal predictions

                        Originally posted by doug5321
                        28 medals are predicted 15 for men and 13 for women for USA, so it looks like the 30 medal goal is very realistic.
                        No, this in not what these predictions say.

                        The expected number of medals is equal to the (joint) probability of each participant getting a medal, summed across participants. Thus, assume that the probability of each one of a countries Golds was 50%, 20% Silver, 10% Bronze, and the probability of their Silvers being Gold is 25%, Silver being Silver 25%, Silver being Bronze being 25%, with Bronze going 10%, 25%, 40%. However, we are not done yet, because we need to add in the probability of all of the people not on the list will get different medals (Centrowitz B1500, Simpson G1500).

                        Given the selections you can make a first approximation [joint probabilities matter, as if Claye does not get the TJ Gold, his teammate has a higher probability and if he gets it, his team has 0 probability) by adding up the expected number of each medal and total medals [as a not, the likelihoods are too high in most cases in the example above, plus it is well known that some expected medals (US m4x400 Gold) are more likely than others.

                        In a simple case of one country having one quality entrant expected to be Gold, then their expected number of Gold medals is 0.5, not 1. By listing someone as "Gold" in these rankings you are just ordinally ranking the maximum likelihood estimates.

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                        • #13
                          Re: London medal predictions

                          that just might be the all-time record for taking the fun out of something!! :shock:

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                          • #14
                            Re: London medal predictions

                            Originally posted by gh
                            that just might be the all-time record for taking the fun out of something!! :shock:
                            The exercise of predicting the top finishers is interesting and of more interest than the other use it is put to, which is estimating the number of medals a country will get. In order to use is as a basis for estimating a country's medals or a team's championship points it is not adequate by itself.

                            At one point I was going to try to generate the data on the distribution of actual finishes based on project placings (e.g., probability that First finishes 1st, 2nd, ,,,, 8th, out-of-the-money) and then apply it to the contests that would occasionally pop up here. I have not gotten around to it (maybe when I retire) but note that it is a more sophisticated way to assess the contenders for, say, the NCAA title. If a team is projected to score 50 points on five first-place finishes (with no other real contenders) are they likely to beat a team projected to have 10 fourth-place finishes? One the one hand, projected first place finishers are typically further ahead of the next couple contestants; on the other hand, there is no upside; they cannot get any more than 50 points. An analysis of where people end up will provide additional information. Now, why does that take the fun out of the exercise?

                            We 'know' this in the sense that people t

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                            • #15
                              Re: London medal predictions

                              With Liu, Robles, and presumably Oliver, Richardson and Merritt, as of now, nothing would surprise me.

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