Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

[ycn]

High school sprinter Walter Dix of Gainesville, Florida has entered the U.S. Olympic trials in the 200m race.

His PB in that event is currently 20.62, which is near the Olympic "A" standard of 20.59, but well above the U.S. "A" standard of 20.20.

His first goal will have to be securing a time sure to be among the top 30 in the event in order to be allowed to race. Right now I calculate Dix's seeding number at about 21, and that is sure to change between now and July 1st unless he can post a faster time.

All seeding results must come from the date window of 7/1/2003 to 7/1/2004, and the field size is limited to 30 entrants.

All qualifying marks must be between 1/1/2003 and 7/1/2004, but if an entrant's better mark is before 7/1/2003 it cannot be used for seeding purposes, but only for automatic (20.20) or provisional (20.65) qualifying times. Only F.A.T. times are accepted for distances below 800m.

Medalists in the Olympics or IAAF World Indoor or Outdoor Championships from the years 2000-2004 automatically qualify in the event, as does the winner of the 2003 USA Outdoor Track and Field Championship, Darvis Patton.

[gh]

Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

Just to clarify: no OT event is capped; if 122 guys made the A, they'd let them all run. Or if there were ties that made it 31, 32, 33... they'd all run.

Here's the list USATF page with desired field sizes:

http://www.usatf.org/events/2004/Olympi ... dSizes.asp

[ycn]

Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

I guess I didn't cover all the contingencies, but it would be pretty hard to imagine more than 30 people getting "A" times in the 200m, considering the U.S. "A" standard at 20.20 is far faster than the Olympic "A" at 20.59.

[tandfman]

Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

>Right now I calculate Dix's seeding number at about 21<

Calculate again. There are at least 30 guys ahead of him. Of course they may not all run the Trials. But they could.

[ycn]

Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

I put every performance by an athlete from the USA from 2003-2004 found either on the IAAF or USATF web sites into a spreadsheet at eliminated those performances prior to 7/1/2003 for seeding purposes, as well as additional performances by athletes that would not be used for seeding purposes, and Dix came out as a 21 seed.

Believe it or not.

[tandfman]

Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

>I put every performance by an athlete from the USA from 2003-2004 found either on the IAAF or USATF web sites into a spreadsheet at eliminated those performances prior to 7/1/2003 for seeding purposes<

Why? The qualification period began 1/1/2003.

[gh]

Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

The confusion is coming from the wording of "seeding period" and "qualifying period." As I understand it, PRIORITY in seeding goes to those who made the Q after 7/1/03. After they are given their spots in the queue, then those who qualified in the 6 months earlier (and don't have a Q since) are seeded.

It's merely a way to give preferential treatment to those who have "recently" demonstrated their level of fitness. It has no effect on who actually gets into the meet.

[tandfman]

Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

>It has no effect on who actually gets into the meet.<

Exactly. And that's why, for purposes of this discussion, which started with a comment on what Dix would have to do to get into the meet, the "seeding time" is irrelevant. There are 30 guys ahead of him and if they all enter the trials and USATF doesn't expand the field, he won't be there.

IMHO, guys like this, who are likely to be knocked out in the first round of the OT even if they make it there, would be much better off going to the US Junior Championships and, assuming they qualify, then going to the IAAF World Junior Championships in Italy.

There are some juniors who've qualified for the OT but only a few of them have realistic chances of making the Olympic team. Of course those few (like Sanya Richards and Allyson Felix) should go to Sacramento. For the rest, competing in the World Juniors would be a much more valuable and enjoyable experience than going to the Trials.

[gh]

Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

Oooooo! I smell a debate going on here. Four years is an eternity in an athlete's life. I say compete in the OT if you get the chance.

[ycn]

Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

Lets say you ran a 20.19 on 6/24/2003.

You ran a 20.65 on 7/1/2003.

Your seeding time is 20.65, not 20.19.

If there are 30 people with faster times than your 20.65, then you will be seeded 31st.

You are automatically qualified by the 20.19 mark, but because it was before 7/1/2003 it isn't used for seeding purposes.

Hope that makes since.

You have to seed from 7/1/2003, and qualify from 1/1/2003.

Therefore all marks from before 7/1/2003 are seeded after all marks after 7/1/2003 are seeded.

[tandfman]

Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

>Oooooo! I smell a debate going on here. Four years is an eternity in an athlete's life. I say compete in the OT if you get the chance.<

And I say compete in the OT only if you have a chance--even a small chance--to make the Olympic team. But not if you have no chance at all. The Trials should not be an end in themselves. It's not like the Olympics, where there's an honor to just being there and taking part as an Olympian.

It's also an honor to represent the USA in international competition, to be exposed to the unique format of IAAF championships competition, and to have a chance at a World level medal. Walter Dix can do all of that if he goes to the World Juniors. At the Trials, he'll almost certainly be dusted in the first round or two. He has no chance of even making the final.

He'd be better off waiting the four years. With good career development, he could have his meaningful chance at the Olympic team then (and for several Olympiads thereafter). And if he doesn't develop any further, he will at least have had the international experience as a Junior.

Needless to say, if between now and late June, he gets down to near 20 flat, he'd should be thinking differently. I didn't want to imply that he couldn't do that--just that if he doesn't, I'd advice him to skip the Trials and aim for the World Juniors.

As always, gh, your olfactory sense is excellent.

[gh]

Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

Here's the seeding guidelines from the bottom of the page cited earlier:

<<Seeding Guidelines

The mark used for qualifying and the mark used for first round seeding might not be the same.

Each qualified entrant in each event must submit a best mark, if available, from the period 7/1/03 - 7/1/04, whether it meets the qualifying standard or not.

Seeding for the first round of competition is based on marks achieved between 7/1/03 - 7/1/04, which will be ranked before any performances made prior to 7/1/03, even if they do not meet the qualifying standard (Rule 75). Marks made prior to 7/1/03 may qualify an individual for the competition, but will not be used for seeding purposes when a 7/1/03 - 7/1/04 mark exists.>>

The list of Qs is made from marks starting from 1/03. They then cut that list to X (for the 200, 30). Everybody in that 30 who has a Q mark from the 7/03 period on gets put in priority order for seeding into the first round of competition. The remainder of the Qs are then put in order based on their earlier marks and tacked on to the end of the first list. (Unless they've gone completely against previous procedure)

[tandfman]

Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

>>Lets say you ran a 20.19 on 6/24/2003. You ran a 20.65 on 7/1/2003. Your seeding time is 20.65, not 20.19. If there are 30 people with faster times than your 20.65, then you will be seeded 31st.<<

Yes, but that 20.19 would have been an 'A' qualifier for the meet. This has nothing to do with Dix or anyone else who is not in the top 30. As gh pointed out, unless more than 30 guys achieve the US 'A' standard of 20.20, nobody will be seeded 31st. There will be only 30 allowed in the event.

[Pego]

Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

Why 30? 4X8=32 Wouldn't that be more logical or is there something I am not aware of?

[ycn]

Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

Here's where I have everyone ranked that have achieved at least the provisional qualifying time of 10.65. (Seed Mark Wind Athlete) I arbitrarily ranked identical times based on wind. Where you see "NA" for wind it is an indoor mark.

Check out where Mo Greene is on the list.

1 20.01 0.8 Bernard Williams
2 20.02 0.8 Shawn Crawford
3 20.03 0.6 Darvis Patton
4 20.04 -0.1 Justin Gatlin
5 20.04 0 Coby Miller
6 20.18 0 John Capel
7 20.21 0.2 Joshua "JJ" Johnson
8 20.31 -0.4 Mickey Grimes
9 20.31 0.5 Ramon Clay
10 20.31 1.1 Jimmie Hackley
11 20.35 -0.4 Wallace Spearmon
12 20.39 1.8 Milton Mallard
13 20.42 NA Leo Bookman
14 20.42 1.2 LeShaunte Edwards
15 20.43 1.1 Bobby Williams
16 20.52 -1.7 Aaron Armstrong
17 20.55 -0.1 Marcus Brunson
18 20.55 0 Kyle Farmer
19 20.57 -0.3 Wesley Felix
20 20.57 NA Domenik Peterson
21 20.57 NA Kenneth Baxter
22 20.58 NA Tyson Gay
23 20.61 0.3 Brendan Christian
24 20.62 0.4 Walter Dix
25 20.62 1.4 DaBryan Blanton
26 20.63 0 David Neville
27 20.63 1.2 Jordan Vaden
28 20.05 0 Joshua "JJ" Johnson
29 20.16 0 Maurice Greene
30 20.25 0.1 Kenny Brokenburr
--------------------------------
31 20.4 1.7 Erick Wilson
32 20.48 -0.9 Jerome Mathis
33 20.5 -1.7 Marquis Davis
34 20.51 -1 Stanford Routt
35 20.51 0.5 Ryan Shields
36 20.57 1.2 Kendrick Triggs
37 20.57 1.6 Allen Johnson
38 20.57 2 Olan Coleman
39 20.58 1.6 Monzavous "Rae" Edwards
40 20.61 0.9 Kelly Willie
41 20.63 -0.6 Kaaron Conwright
42 20.65 0 Airese Currie
43 20.65 1 Chris Stewart
44 20.65 2 Brian Johnson