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Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

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  • ycn
    replied
    Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

    From the USATF site:

    ----------------------
    Seeding for the first round of competition is based on marks achieved between 7/1/03 - 7/1/04, which will be ranked before any performances made prior to 7/1/03, even if they do not meet the qualifying standard (Rule 75). Marks made prior to 7/1/03 may qualify an individual for the competition, but will not be used for seeding purposes when a 7/1/03 - 7/1/04 mark exists.
    -----------------------

    That's it. There's the rule. You may be automatically qualified prior to 7/1/2003 but not prior to 1/1/2003.

    Outdoor marks are included from 1/1/2003. Indoor marks are included from the most recent season only.

    It doesn't matter if you ran a 19.31 between 1/1/2003 and 6/30/2003, that mark will include you automatically, but you will be seeded behind everyone who has a 20.65 or better since 7/1/2003, if you haven't run at least a provisional qualifying time since that date.

    That means a 20.42 before 7/1/2003 will not be seeded until after those persons who attained 20.65 after 7/1/2003 have been seeded.

    Everyone below the line on my list above is (a) not automatically qualified, and (b) will not be seeded until everyone with a 20.65 or better on or after 7/1/2003 has been seeded. That is why Maurice Greene is currently at 29 in my chart. He hasn't run 20.65 or better since 7/1/2003.

    A 20.40 in the first six months of 2003 is worthless if the automatic qualifiers and the number of people who have run 20.65 or better since 7/1/2003 meets or exceeds 30 entrants.

    Leave a comment:


  • tandfman
    replied
    Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

    Sorry, ycn, but I think you are wrong. As Garry said:
    >>"The list of Qs is made from marks starting from 1/03. They then cut that list to X (for the 200, 30).<<

    Dix does not make the cut. He's not in the top 30 marks starting from 1/1/03, so he's not a Q, which means that when he made his best time and when the Q's made theirs is entirely irrelevant. Just because he had a faster time post 7/1/03 than some of those who qualified in the first half of '03 does not put him ahead of them on the Q list. It's the Q list that determines who gets into the meet. Then the seed list determines how they are seeded in the first round.

    Leave a comment:


  • ycn
    replied
    Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

    There aren't more than 30 that have faster qualifying times since 7/1/2003. You are automatically in if you have run a 20.20 or better since 1/1/2003, but you get seeded after everyone else no matter what your time is if you don't have a 20.65 or better since 7/1/2003.

    If you haven't run a 20.65 or better since 7/1/2003 you don't have a primary seeding time, and you will be seeded behind every person who has at least a provisional (10.65) since 7/1/2003.

    There are several people who have times faster than Dix that aren't currently going to qualify for the trials because their times came before 7/1/2003.

    Notice where Maurice Greene is? That is because he's automatically qualified, but he doesn't have a time since that date, while 27 people have run 10.65 or better since then.

    If he doesn't run a 200 prior to 7/1 this year, Greene will have the 30th seed at best, because you can be sure that the list of seed times is going to grow.

    I didn't make the rules, and you don't understand them. I make no excuses for that.

    Leave a comment:


  • tandfman
    replied
    Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

    That's all very interesting, but if entries closed tomorrow, and everyone that you listed had entered, Dix wouldn't make the cut. He would not be in the Trials. There are more than 30 ahead of him with faster qualifying times.

    Leave a comment:


  • ycn
    replied
    Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

    Here's where I have everyone ranked that have achieved at least the provisional qualifying time of 10.65. (Seed Mark Wind Athlete) I arbitrarily ranked identical times based on wind. Where you see "NA" for wind it is an indoor mark.

    Check out where Mo Greene is on the list.

    1 20.01 0.8 Bernard Williams
    2 20.02 0.8 Shawn Crawford
    3 20.03 0.6 Darvis Patton
    4 20.04 -0.1 Justin Gatlin
    5 20.04 0 Coby Miller
    6 20.18 0 John Capel
    7 20.21 0.2 Joshua "JJ" Johnson
    8 20.31 -0.4 Mickey Grimes
    9 20.31 0.5 Ramon Clay
    10 20.31 1.1 Jimmie Hackley
    11 20.35 -0.4 Wallace Spearmon
    12 20.39 1.8 Milton Mallard
    13 20.42 NA Leo Bookman
    14 20.42 1.2 LeShaunte Edwards
    15 20.43 1.1 Bobby Williams
    16 20.52 -1.7 Aaron Armstrong
    17 20.55 -0.1 Marcus Brunson
    18 20.55 0 Kyle Farmer
    19 20.57 -0.3 Wesley Felix
    20 20.57 NA Domenik Peterson
    21 20.57 NA Kenneth Baxter
    22 20.58 NA Tyson Gay
    23 20.61 0.3 Brendan Christian
    24 20.62 0.4 Walter Dix
    25 20.62 1.4 DaBryan Blanton
    26 20.63 0 David Neville
    27 20.63 1.2 Jordan Vaden
    28 20.05 0 Joshua "JJ" Johnson
    29 20.16 0 Maurice Greene
    30 20.25 0.1 Kenny Brokenburr
    --------------------------------
    31 20.4 1.7 Erick Wilson
    32 20.48 -0.9 Jerome Mathis
    33 20.5 -1.7 Marquis Davis
    34 20.51 -1 Stanford Routt
    35 20.51 0.5 Ryan Shields
    36 20.57 1.2 Kendrick Triggs
    37 20.57 1.6 Allen Johnson
    38 20.57 2 Olan Coleman
    39 20.58 1.6 Monzavous "Rae" Edwards
    40 20.61 0.9 Kelly Willie
    41 20.63 -0.6 Kaaron Conwright
    42 20.65 0 Airese Currie
    43 20.65 1 Chris Stewart
    44 20.65 2 Brian Johnson

    Leave a comment:


  • Pego
    replied
    Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

    Why 30? 4X8=32 Wouldn't that be more logical or is there something I am not aware of?

    Leave a comment:


  • tandfman
    replied
    Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

    >>Lets say you ran a 20.19 on 6/24/2003. You ran a 20.65 on 7/1/2003. Your seeding time is 20.65, not 20.19. If there are 30 people with faster times than your 20.65, then you will be seeded 31st.<<

    Yes, but that 20.19 would have been an 'A' qualifier for the meet. This has nothing to do with Dix or anyone else who is not in the top 30. As gh pointed out, unless more than 30 guys achieve the US 'A' standard of 20.20, nobody will be seeded 31st. There will be only 30 allowed in the event.

    Leave a comment:


  • gh
    replied
    Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

    Here's the seeding guidelines from the bottom of the page cited earlier:

    <<Seeding Guidelines

    The mark used for qualifying and the mark used for first round seeding might not be the same.

    Each qualified entrant in each event must submit a best mark, if available, from the period 7/1/03 - 7/1/04, whether it meets the qualifying standard or not.

    Seeding for the first round of competition is based on marks achieved between 7/1/03 - 7/1/04, which will be ranked before any performances made prior to 7/1/03, even if they do not meet the qualifying standard (Rule 75). Marks made prior to 7/1/03 may qualify an individual for the competition, but will not be used for seeding purposes when a 7/1/03 - 7/1/04 mark exists.>>

    The list of Qs is made from marks starting from 1/03. They then cut that list to X (for the 200, 30). Everybody in that 30 who has a Q mark from the 7/03 period on gets put in priority order for seeding into the first round of competition. The remainder of the Qs are then put in order based on their earlier marks and tacked on to the end of the first list. (Unless they've gone completely against previous procedure)

    Leave a comment:


  • tandfman
    replied
    Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

    >Oooooo! I smell a debate going on here. Four years is an eternity in an athlete's life. I say compete in the OT if you get the chance.<

    And I say compete in the OT only if you have a chance--even a small chance--to make the Olympic team. But not if you have no chance at all. The Trials should not be an end in themselves. It's not like the Olympics, where there's an honor to just being there and taking part as an Olympian.

    It's also an honor to represent the USA in international competition, to be exposed to the unique format of IAAF championships competition, and to have a chance at a World level medal. Walter Dix can do all of that if he goes to the World Juniors. At the Trials, he'll almost certainly be dusted in the first round or two. He has no chance of even making the final.

    He'd be better off waiting the four years. With good career development, he could have his meaningful chance at the Olympic team then (and for several Olympiads thereafter). And if he doesn't develop any further, he will at least have had the international experience as a Junior.

    Needless to say, if between now and late June, he gets down to near 20 flat, he'd should be thinking differently. I didn't want to imply that he couldn't do that--just that if he doesn't, I'd advice him to skip the Trials and aim for the World Juniors.

    As always, gh, your olfactory sense is excellent.

    Leave a comment:


  • ycn
    replied
    Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

    Lets say you ran a 20.19 on 6/24/2003.

    You ran a 20.65 on 7/1/2003.

    Your seeding time is 20.65, not 20.19.

    If there are 30 people with faster times than your 20.65, then you will be seeded 31st.

    You are automatically qualified by the 20.19 mark, but because it was before 7/1/2003 it isn't used for seeding purposes.

    Hope that makes since.

    You have to seed from 7/1/2003, and qualify from 1/1/2003.

    Therefore all marks from before 7/1/2003 are seeded after all marks after 7/1/2003 are seeded.

    Leave a comment:


  • gh
    replied
    Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

    Oooooo! I smell a debate going on here. Four years is an eternity in an athlete's life. I say compete in the OT if you get the chance.

    Leave a comment:


  • tandfman
    replied
    Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

    >It has no effect on who actually gets into the meet.<

    Exactly. And that's why, for purposes of this discussion, which started with a comment on what Dix would have to do to get into the meet, the "seeding time" is irrelevant. There are 30 guys ahead of him and if they all enter the trials and USATF doesn't expand the field, he won't be there.

    IMHO, guys like this, who are likely to be knocked out in the first round of the OT even if they make it there, would be much better off going to the US Junior Championships and, assuming they qualify, then going to the IAAF World Junior Championships in Italy.

    There are some juniors who've qualified for the OT but only a few of them have realistic chances of making the Olympic team. Of course those few (like Sanya Richards and Allyson Felix) should go to Sacramento. For the rest, competing in the World Juniors would be a much more valuable and enjoyable experience than going to the Trials.

    Leave a comment:


  • gh
    replied
    Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

    The confusion is coming from the wording of "seeding period" and "qualifying period." As I understand it, PRIORITY in seeding goes to those who made the Q after 7/1/03. After they are given their spots in the queue, then those who qualified in the 6 months earlier (and don't have a Q since) are seeded.

    It's merely a way to give preferential treatment to those who have "recently" demonstrated their level of fitness. It has no effect on who actually gets into the meet.

    Leave a comment:


  • tandfman
    replied
    Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

    >I put every performance by an athlete from the USA from 2003-2004 found either on the IAAF or USATF web sites into a spreadsheet at eliminated those performances prior to 7/1/2003 for seeding purposes<

    Why? The qualification period began 1/1/2003.

    Leave a comment:


  • ycn
    replied
    Re: Walter Dix enters U.S. Olympic trials

    I put every performance by an athlete from the USA from 2003-2004 found either on the IAAF or USATF web sites into a spreadsheet at eliminated those performances prior to 7/1/2003 for seeding purposes, as well as additional performances by athletes that would not be used for seeding purposes, and Dix came out as a 21 seed.

    Believe it or not.

    Leave a comment:

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