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Next Mens American Record: 800m or Mile?

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  • Next Mens American Record: 800m or Mile?

    Which will fall first?

    1.42,60 from 1985-08-28, or 3.47,69 from 1982-07-07?

    There has been great activity on this board surrounding the plight and so-called demise of your American milers. Is it likely in your opionion that your national 800m record will fall before the mile? Why (not)?

  • #2
    Re: Next Mens American Record: 800m or Mile?

    The only guy who would seem remotely capable of taking either would be Krum. I don't think he is quite fast enough to grab the 8 and he hasn't dedicated himself seriously for the mile.

    It would take a fantastic race for DK to take either but but I would actually give him a better chance if he got into a fast El G. mile than in the 8. There is nobody else running that would be capable within the next couple of years.

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    • #3
      Re: Next Mens American Record: 800m or Mile?

      i think the 800 will go first, by who i dont know, my reasoning is in europe where most of the fast times are run, they tend to run the 1500 rather than the mile, prefontaine is probably to early for a mile record, so i also think scotts 347.69 will last longer than marees 329.77 which according to last months track and field news converts to a 3;46.54.

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      • #4
        Re: Next Mens American Record: 800m or Mile?

        I agree with burke for precisely the same reason... more opportunities in the 800

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        • #5
          Re: Next Mens American Record: 800m or Mile?

          But it seems pretty obvious that neither AR will fall anytime soon...both could last for YEARS.

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          • #6
            Re: Next Mens American Record: 800m or Mile?

            >But it seems pretty obvious that neither AR will fall anytime soon...both could
            >last for YEARS.

            Sad, but true.....

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            • #7
              Re: Next Mens American Record: 800m or Mile?

              Another question: Will your next gen elites have a better chance of breaking Kennedy:s 12.58 than Gray:s 1.42?

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              • #8
                Re: Next Mens American Record: 800m or Mile?

                You're asking the TOUGH questions! I'd guess that the 12:58 is SLIGHTLY more vulnerable than the 800 AR, but who knows? We'd (collectively) go wild with excitement if ANYONE came within shouting distance of either mark...

                A related question: When will we see an Olympic trials 800 as gutsy and fast as Gray's front-running 1:42.80?

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                • #9
                  Re: Next Mens American Record: 800m or Mile?

                  The records cited are 19 and 22 years old. Will they be broken within the next 20 years?

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                  • #10
                    Re: Next Mens American Record: 800m or Mile?

                    we have so many good quartermilers, there has to be a few if they moved up in distance could do something outstanding, example if it takes a 44. 5 to make the us international teams, i am sure we have some 45-46 second quartermilers, who could be outstanding in the half or mile, but so few seem to seriously try.

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                    • #11
                      Re: Next Mens American Record: 800m or Mile?

                      Doug, that's an interesting point. We are flat-out loaded with outstanding young 400 guys, and with the way training is going in the long sprints, some of these guys are bound to attempt to transfer those skills to the next distance. That could be just what the doctor ordered for the short middle distances.

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                      • #12
                        Re: Next Mens American Record: 800m or Mile?

                        The 800, and for a reason having nothing to do with the relative strength of the current marks or the people we have in the pipeline. The answer is..... chances to run in fast races.

                        Harkening back to the '80s, at random I called up the 1985 season. The World Rankers ran Euro Circuit miles at Bislett, Weltklasse, Van Damme, Cork, Edinburgh, Talbot G (London), IAC (London), Edinburgh and Barcelona.

                        Last year World Rankers ran EC miles at London and Rieti. End of story.

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                        • #13
                          Re: Next Mens American Record: 800m or Mile?

                          It seems to me that many 400m don't fancy the extra pain and hard work that goes with moving up to 800m. I remember Ed Moses saying that he thought putting a couple of 50sec quarters together - and break the world 800m record - shouldn't be that difficult. He never it, of course. Also, I was disappointed that Michael Johnson didn't have a go at 800m. Did he consider it a bridge - or distance - too far?

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                          • #14
                            Re: Next Mens American Record: 800m or Mile?

                            >Another question: Will your next gen elites have a better chance of breaking
                            >Kennedy:s 12.58 than Gray:s 1.42?

                            Yes, unless Krum is able to run something really special. The U.S. currently has more young distance talent than middle-distance talent. Of course, this is conjecture - we are all guessing.

                            It would be nice if we were all wrong and we had a few guys come through and take them all down. And that's what's nice about sport - the unexpected can happen and there can be indvidual "break throughs". All of our yakity- yakity means nothing. The athletes are in control of the future.

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                            • #15
                              Re: Next Mens American Record: 800m or Mile?

                              My point is that the athletes aren't in control of the future when it comes to running sub-3:50 miles, because there are now so few of them.

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