Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

[gibson]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

seems too many "good" posters are thrown off by bad conditions.
most of you guys would get killed in gambling on the horses. (not GH, see his wind observations and comments on time versus results)

the same thing happened only a few weeks ago Ostrava, i.e. conditions made the 400m 1 second slow across the board. EVERYBODY ran about a second faster the next week in the 4. and then there was the bolt fake SCARE where everyone ran slow.

and wind gauges tell only part of the story. the placement of one gauge makes the "true" reading approximate.... and the measurement instrument itself needs to work (calibrated) accurately.

in the 4, you've got merrit and james at 44 probably flat now.
santos and wariner 44 mid
and a bunch of guys 44 high.

come olympics time guys will sharpen and drip a few tenths or more.....
you could be looking at two guys sub 44 and one guy 44 flat in the og final.
i don't think that sucks.

we gotta stop looking for all time great times every time out.
and look more at the way the races were won and lost.

[gibson]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

if you are a professional gambler at horse racing and you know how to calibrate for a slow track, i.e. correct for weather by examining the performance of all the horses over all the races (or the ones with similar conditions), you will gain a big advantage given tyhe right circumstances.... such as...

according to data from last year, a particular horse has stellar but not spectacular times.\
then as a 3 year old he runs a mediocre opener. then you look again and see that the track was very slow, and that the horse was forced to run very wide, and that there was a proven horse in the race that ran a mediocre time as well.

you can note that the people that report on track conditions are right a lot of the time, but sometimes the track is listed as sloppy, but in reality is was pretty fast.
other times the track is listed as good, when in fact it was moderately slow.

the punter has to figure out the reality on his own....if he wants to make money that is.

[26mi235]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

If the men's event was slow (as seemed the case to me), is it also the case that the women's event was also slowed by the conditions and that SRR's 49.39 was close to 49-flat in better conditions.

Also note that some people use the observed wind speeds on the various events and inferred the wind from those marks. However, those are simply the speeds in the direction of the straight. With crosswinds, the speeds can be substantially more and this affects events like the 400 a lot. It can also confuse the 200, because the portion on the curve could have a helping wind or a hindering wind with the same wind on the straight, depending on the direction -- from or into the curve -- of any cross component.

[proofs in the pudd'in]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

Article about the race on the front page had this quote about JW:

'American Jeremy Wariner, the 2004 400 Olympic champ, was not a factor. He was bumped up to fifth in the final standings, at 45.58 [actually 45.68].'

Ouch!

[gibson]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

merrit and james are roughly equal.
merrit can run 44 flat now.
in the pre 2012 merrit and james ran just under 45.

the wind gusts from one time to another, or it may be consistent, ask someone who was there.

i subtract 0.8 from the times and that is what i think guys in the race can really do in good conditions.

which is to say warriner is in 44.8x shape. merrit in 44.1 and james in 44.2 based on the estimated correction for conditions.

check it http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists ... etail.html

duh!, come on, you can do it, you can think!

[proofs in the pudd'in]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

merrit and james are roughly equal.
merrit can run 44 flat now.
in the pre 2012 merrit and james ran just under 45.

the wind gusts from one time to another, or it may be consistent, ask someone who was there.

i subtract 0.8 from the times and that is what i think guys in the race can really do in good conditions.

which is to say warriner is in 44.8x shape. merrit in 44.1 and james in 44.2 based on the estimated correction for conditions.

check it http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists ... etail.html

duh!, come on, you can do it, you can think!

Who are you talking to? So take .8 off the times JW still would have been in 6th place. And 44.8x is not where JW needs to be going into the Nationals or the OG. The year JW started to faulter (2008) is the year that rounds had an affect on his endurance and ability to run times that he was capable of running before - he had better one off races of course but since then his times have been falling. He looked terrible the last 50 meters of this race. Rounds are not going to do him any favors. I am not sure what your point is other than wind conditions - but that affects everyone. He still would have been sixth and as such, as the article states, a non factor. The fact is JW is not the same runner and we cannot expect him to be and he has not shown anything - not even a one off race - that suggests otherwise. He has barely broken 45s when he used to be able, any day of the week since 2004 to 2007, to do so.

[trackdug]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

Fact is Wariner used to be able to run sub-45 at any big meet all the way until 2011 (except for 2009). But that run at Pre sank him to a new all-time low. 6TH PLACE???? I mean, WTF?? Really???

I will say this: I know Wariner only runs well under certain conditions. He's always terrible when it's cold, rainy or the race is early in the day. Also, if he's not in the hunt at the 300m mark, he usually gives up.

Hopefully, the Addias meet will give us a better indication where's he's at. But I ain't counting on it.

[gibson]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

Fact is Wariner used to be able to run sub-45 at any big meet all the way until 2011 (except for 2009). But that run at Pre sank him to a new all-time low. 6TH PLACE???? I mean, WTF?? Really???

I will say this: I know Wariner only runs well under certain conditions. He's always terrible when it's cold, rainy or the race is early in the day. Also, if he's not in the hunt at the 300m mark, he usually gives up.

Hopefully, the Addias meet will give us a better indication where's he's at. But I ain't counting on it.

sure, wariner at 44 high might not make the us team and this is not good enough to make a major final. he's got his work cut out for him to make it.