Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

[gibson]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

Fact is Wariner used to be able to run sub-45 at any big meet all the way until 2011 (except for 2009). But that run at Pre sank him to a new all-time low. 6TH PLACE???? I mean, WTF?? Really???

I will say this: I know Wariner only runs well under certain conditions. He's always terrible when it's cold, rainy or the race is early in the day. Also, if he's not in the hunt at the 300m mark, he usually gives up.

Hopefully, the Addias meet will give us a better indication where's he's at. But I ain't counting on it.

sure, wariner at 44 high might not make the us team and this is not good enough to make a major final. he's got his work cut out for him to make it.

[trackdug]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

Fact is Wariner used to be able to run sub-45 at any big meet all the way until 2011 (except for 2009). But that run at Pre sank him to a new all-time low. 6TH PLACE???? I mean, WTF?? Really???

I will say this: I know Wariner only runs well under certain conditions. He's always terrible when it's cold, rainy or the race is early in the day. Also, if he's not in the hunt at the 300m mark, he usually gives up.

Hopefully, the Addias meet will give us a better indication where's he's at. But I ain't counting on it.

[proofs in the pudd'in]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

merrit and james are roughly equal.
merrit can run 44 flat now.
in the pre 2012 merrit and james ran just under 45.

the wind gusts from one time to another, or it may be consistent, ask someone who was there.

i subtract 0.8 from the times and that is what i think guys in the race can really do in good conditions.

which is to say warriner is in 44.8x shape. merrit in 44.1 and james in 44.2 based on the estimated correction for conditions.

check it http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists ... etail.html

duh!, come on, you can do it, you can think!

Who are you talking to? So take .8 off the times JW still would have been in 6th place. And 44.8x is not where JW needs to be going into the Nationals or the OG. The year JW started to faulter (2008) is the year that rounds had an affect on his endurance and ability to run times that he was capable of running before - he had better one off races of course but since then his times have been falling. He looked terrible the last 50 meters of this race. Rounds are not going to do him any favors. I am not sure what your point is other than wind conditions - but that affects everyone. He still would have been sixth and as such, as the article states, a non factor. The fact is JW is not the same runner and we cannot expect him to be and he has not shown anything - not even a one off race - that suggests otherwise. He has barely broken 45s when he used to be able, any day of the week since 2004 to 2007, to do so.

[gibson]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

merrit and james are roughly equal.
merrit can run 44 flat now.
in the pre 2012 merrit and james ran just under 45.

the wind gusts from one time to another, or it may be consistent, ask someone who was there.

i subtract 0.8 from the times and that is what i think guys in the race can really do in good conditions.

which is to say warriner is in 44.8x shape. merrit in 44.1 and james in 44.2 based on the estimated correction for conditions.

check it http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists ... etail.html

duh!, come on, you can do it, you can think!

[proofs in the pudd'in]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

Article about the race on the front page had this quote about JW:

'American Jeremy Wariner, the 2004 400 Olympic champ, was not a factor. He was bumped up to fifth in the final standings, at 45.58 [actually 45.68].'

Ouch!

[26mi235]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

If the men's event was slow (as seemed the case to me), is it also the case that the women's event was also slowed by the conditions and that SRR's 49.39 was close to 49-flat in better conditions.

Also note that some people use the observed wind speeds on the various events and inferred the wind from those marks. However, those are simply the speeds in the direction of the straight. With crosswinds, the speeds can be substantially more and this affects events like the 400 a lot. It can also confuse the 200, because the portion on the curve could have a helping wind or a hindering wind with the same wind on the straight, depending on the direction -- from or into the curve -- of any cross component.

[gibson]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

if you are a professional gambler at horse racing and you know how to calibrate for a slow track, i.e. correct for weather by examining the performance of all the horses over all the races (or the ones with similar conditions), you will gain a big advantage given tyhe right circumstances.... such as...

according to data from last year, a particular horse has stellar but not spectacular times.\
then as a 3 year old he runs a mediocre opener. then you look again and see that the track was very slow, and that the horse was forced to run very wide, and that there was a proven horse in the race that ran a mediocre time as well.

you can note that the people that report on track conditions are right a lot of the time, but sometimes the track is listed as sloppy, but in reality is was pretty fast.
other times the track is listed as good, when in fact it was moderately slow.

the punter has to figure out the reality on his own....if he wants to make money that is.

[gibson]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

seems too many "good" posters are thrown off by bad conditions.
most of you guys would get killed in gambling on the horses. (not GH, see his wind observations and comments on time versus results)

the same thing happened only a few weeks ago Ostrava, i.e. conditions made the 400m 1 second slow across the board. EVERYBODY ran about a second faster the next week in the 4. and then there was the bolt fake SCARE where everyone ran slow.

and wind gauges tell only part of the story. the placement of one gauge makes the "true" reading approximate.... and the measurement instrument itself needs to work (calibrated) accurately.

in the 4, you've got merrit and james at 44 probably flat now.
santos and wariner 44 mid
and a bunch of guys 44 high.

come olympics time guys will sharpen and drip a few tenths or more.....
you could be looking at two guys sub 44 and one guy 44 flat in the og final.
i don't think that sucks.

we gotta stop looking for all time great times every time out.
and look more at the way the races were won and lost.

[ATK]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

Kirani James false start: The commentators on NRK (Norway) suspected that the loudspeaker behind the block did not work. Hard to say. He went up to ready position and to me it seemed like he leaped out of the blocks directly after "ready".

If the loud speakers didn't work why did he go then? Did he try and guess the gun?

[basslop]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

Kirani James false start: The commentators on NRK (Norway) suspected that the loudspeaker behind the block did not work. Hard to say. He went up to ready position and to me it seemed like he leaped out of the blocks directly after "ready".

[8aldP|23]

Re: Pre DL-400m:

AFTER believing he'd finished 2nd to Merritt, James then learned he'd been dq'd?

ran under protest after false start. false start not shown on NBC.

He just stepped out of the blocks. They gave him the red and card took the blocks off the track and pretty much immediately brought the blocks right back out and he lined up. To my recollection there wasn't any clapping or other noises which would warrant a green card. Very obvious FS. I Don't really understand the running under protest rule. The neutral start referee can let an athlete run under protest:

" if an irregularity is suspected in the award of a false start. No protest will be allowed if the false start equipment is working correctly and a false start has been indicated."

http://www.usatf.org/groups/officials/f ... l-2010.pdf

The gun sound they were using was very strange. Sounded like a small hammer hitting a large metal box.

[proofs in the pudd'in]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

From 44.96 to 45.04 to 45.68.
Not a good progression for the year. And he is entered to run a t New York Next weekend, and I cant imagine him pulling out since its an Adidas meet.

I do not recall seeing him look that bad in the stretch before :?:

[tm71]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

JW had a lot of goals he never reached. He got slower. Why? {Merritt got faster, but has not ever been (yet anyway) as fast as Wariner once was.} /

not necessarily. LM run fast in 08 and 09, but sat out most of 10 and 11 and has not run fast again until this spring. JW has indeed gone backwards every year since his second world title in osaka. right now JW is having a hard time breaking 45 which he could easily do. he used to be majestic (like MJ) coming off the curve, now he looks spent and average runners he used to beat by 10 meters pass him up on the straight. personally, i think that some of this is the nature of the beast which is the 400 meters. this event is so taxing, no one (except MJ) has consistently been at the top for more than three yrs. look at prior champions like Steve Lewis and the difference between his olympic win in 88 and silver in 92, like Quincy Watts and the difference between his gold in 92 and being out of the picture by the next olympics. also it seems that most 400 runners peak between 20 and 25 (again MJ the exception). With that in mind, i think it was a smart decision for Kirani James to leave college early and join the pro ranks, because in three years he might not be running this fast and someone else might be on top.

[ATK]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

From 44.96 to 45.04 to 45.68.
Not a good progression for the year. And he is entered to run a t New York Next weekend, and I cant imagine him pulling out since its an Adidas meet.

[proofs in the pudd'in]

Re: Pre DL-400m: LaShawn Merritt 44.91

JW looked terrible the last 50 - didn't/couldn't even run through the line. What has gone wrong that he is this out of shape?