final Oly Trials predictions now posted

[ATK]

Re: final Oly Trials predictions now posted

Anna Pierce Just ran the A standard yesterday in the 1500m.

[GDAWG]

Re: final Oly Trials predictions now posted

What is the reasoning behind Tiffany Williams in 3rd for Women's 400 Meter Hurdles?

[huntinwr]

Re: final Oly Trials predictions now posted

Have I missed something? How on EARTH is Andrew Wheating favored in the 1,500?

They probably heard about a killer workout he ran the other day after his 3:35.89 in Canada!

Seriously, if a 3:30 guy is anywhere near that form, I'd pick him too.

[polevaultpower]

Re: final Oly Trials predictions now posted

Definitely a few interesting marks out there though...

Why is Melissa Gergel not in the form chart? It seems the only vaulters who don't have the A standard yet, but have a realistic chance of getting it at Trials, are LeLeux and Gergel.

She hasn't jumped much this year. Her 4.46 was at a PV qualifying meet at Mt SAC, I don't think it's sketchy. I would put her in the top 10. Maybe the person doing the formchart didn't see those results, Brian is not very good at getting them out.

I wouldn't count out Buell for a 4.50 simply because Derek Miles is a fantastic coach, but I agree that Leleux and Gergel are the most realistic.

[26mi235]

Re: final Oly Trials predictions now posted

Well yea, obviously. But even so, it's gotta strike a balance between the two. For example, we can't be putting Alan Webb at the top of the 1500 list just because of his history and who he is (I'm not saying this is an equivalent example, obviously Ritz is a hell of a lot more realistic a guy in his events than Webb, I'm just using an exaggerated example to explain what I mean).

Anyways, I was just wondering, could you post all of Ritz runs for this season (specifically what place he finished, even more importantly than what his times were). The site which I'm not sure I'm allowed to name on here (Finnish website that starts with a "t") doesn't show Ritz's results for this season for non-members, which is why I asked all this stuff about Ritz in the first place, since I can't see what his results have been like so far this year, other than him not having an A standard (which based on the responses sounds like it was irrelevant, if maybe he had some good finishes place-wise in some slow-pace races or something).

So, can anyone post all of Ritz' results for this 2012 season so that I can determine if my whining was unfounded or not, and if it was, then to how severe of an extent, etc lol ops: :?:

Going from memory, Ritz was up near the front of the non-Ethiopians in the Henglo 10,000 (Ethiopia was using it as a Trials race). He won the 5000 where he ran 13:15, he was 4th in the Marathon Trials. He was edged out in a sprint in his first track race in a couple of years in his 28:xx 10,000 [Stanford] which went out a bit on the slow side. Since he was in marathon mode up through January, his track speed would be getting better through the season. His history also includes Third at World Junior XC (behind Bekele) and 9th at the Marathon in 2008. He set the American Record in the 5000 a couple years back in what was his most recent track race until that 28-low at Stanford.

[gh]

Re: final Oly Trials predictions now posted

Love the new formchart A/B Oly qualifier codes to keep track of things... and weather forecast for decathlon days is not too good: low-60's and 80%/30% chance of rain... gonna make it that much harder to score 8200 (including Clay) to get to London, for anyone other than Eaton/Hardee.

If Clay can't score 8200 in "bad" Eugene weather, then he has no podium hope for London anyway.

[gh]

Re: final Oly Trials predictions now posted

OK IAAF site back up, Jack Whitt's 5.72 is on their indoor list, so I don't see any reason to leave it off your lists. In terms of OG qualifying, it doesn't matter what T&FN's opinion is in the matter......

note that I said there WAS some question about the mark. And that question came from USATF, who were ratifying the marks. No need to insult us.

[j-a-m]

Re: final Oly Trials predictions now posted

Definitely a few interesting marks out there though...

Why is Melissa Gergel not in the form chart? It seems the only vaulters who don't have the A standard yet, but have a realistic chance of getting it at Trials, are LeLeux and Gergel.

[polevaultpower]

Re: final Oly Trials predictions now posted

OK IAAF site back up, Jack Whitt's 5.72 is on their indoor list, so I don't see any reason to leave it off your lists. In terms of OG qualifying, it doesn't matter what T&FN's opinion is in the matter...

As far as I know Jordan Scott's mark was valid, though I don't see it on the IAAF lists yet. It was at a street vault, but they met the new requirement of having the runway surveyed with a transit to ensure it meets the rules, and they met the other requirements.

I think it's unlikely Scott Roth and Jeremy Scott will beat Jack Whitt and Jordan Scott. The former two have been fighting injuries. Even if you discount Whitt's indoor 5.72, I am surprised you would rank him so low, 5.65 at NCAAs is very respectable. I don't think anyone else has jumped higher outdoors except Walker and Irwin and Jordan Scott's 5.72 jumps. Whitt had some injury issues holding him back most of the season, but they have eased up and his results show. I'd be surprised if Colwick made finals.

[polevaultpower]

Re: final Oly Trials predictions now posted

Didn't Jack Whitt recently get an A standard?...

I believe their may have been some questions about the validity of the meet. The amount of unbelievable trash that poured in from "last chance" meets in East Podunk the last couple of weeks has been staggering.

The IAAF website is down at the moment so I can't check, but it is my understanding that his mark was accepted by them and USATF. The meet was sanctioned well in advance, there were lots of competitors, it was at ORUs indoor PV facility and they said the runway and box were surveyed when it was built (it's a permanent runway).

He backed it up with a 5.65 win at NCAAs, I don't find the 5.72 terribly suspicious.

Definitely a few interesting marks out there though...

[BCBaroo]

Re: final Oly Trials predictions now posted

Have I missed something? How on EARTH is Andrew Wheating favored in the 1,500?

Well, he did beat Centro in the Harry Jerome, clocking 3:35. If it comes to a kicker's race as it often does, IF Wheating can summon that great kick he had as a collegian and first year pro, he'll be tough to beat.

That would qualify as "something I missed". Thank you.

[gh]

Re: final Oly Trials predictions now posted

Phyllis Francis in the w400 also has an A.

[nicest person ever]

Re: final Oly Trials predictions now posted

Well yea, obviously. But even so, it's gotta strike a balance between the two. For example, we can't be putting Alan Webb at the top of the 1500 list just because of his history and who he is (I'm not saying this is an equivalent example, obviously Ritz is a hell of a lot more realistic a guy in his events than Webb, I'm just using an exaggerated example to explain what I mean).

Anyways, I was just wondering, could you post all of Ritz runs for this season (specifically what place he finished, even more importantly than what his times were). The site which I'm not sure I'm allowed to name on here (Finnish website that starts with a "t") doesn't show Ritz's results for this season for non-members, which is why I asked all this stuff about Ritz in the first place, since I can't see what his results have been like so far this year, other than him not having an A standard (which based on the responses sounds like it was irrelevant, if maybe he had some good finishes place-wise in some slow-pace races or something).

So, can anyone post all of Ritz' results for this 2012 season so that I can determine if my whining was unfounded or not, and if it was, then to how severe of an extent, etc lol ops: :?:

[gh]

Re: final Oly Trials predictions now posted

S....
2. Ritzenhein listed #2 in the 10k. He's not even listed in the 5k, and then in the 10k it shows an asterisk next to him meaning only a B-standard, whereas other strong guys below him such as Tegenkamp have an A-standard. I may have forgotten or missed a big win or strong placing by Ritz in a slow-pace race or something, so, wondering if this is the case (if so, I would like to know (I'm asking genuinely, not snottily, I have missed several meets this year, so I am actually really asking)), or, is he just being ranked high based on the AR from a while back?

Of course he's being partially (maybe even largely) ranked based on who he "is." That's part of good prognostications, knowing who the people are who are likely to be there on a day. Anybody can put together a form chart based on the yearly list. It's called the yearly list! :mrgreen:

[gktrack]

Re: final Oly Trials predictions now posted

Note Robby Andrews has not declared in the 800 with just over hour left to do so. That would be a big shock if he indeed scratches.

Good observation - didn't catch that, and one of only a handful w/ the OLY A standard... but he is declared in the 1500 along w/ training mate Webb, so maybe he's all-in on the 1500m?

... Cain MIGHT be able to run the 800, but I feel her best distance is the 1500!!...

Looks to me like 3 preps made it to the qualifying rounds in the w800: Amy Weissenbach (20 seed), Ajee Wilson (25 seed) and Mary Cain (31 seed).