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  • Potential entrant list for men's NCAA 400 meter event

    Just for the heck of it, I decided to put together a list of potential eligibles for the men's NCAA 400 dash event. Since this is shaping up as one of the signature events of the 2004 NCAA meet, it seemed like a good place to start. It was a BIG job to compile this!

    Rather than just rely on the lists at http://members.aol.com/rpodkam/events.html , I decided to fact-check each time and entrant, as well as the dates of the performance, to weed out any potential outdated performances or outright errors.

    I have to admit, I found a lot of errors at the rpodkam site in the lists there. In the men's 400 event, I'm guessing the error rate was something on the order of 3-5 percent. I cross-checked against lists at USATF and IAAF, Tilastopaja.net, and meet results posted on the web at the sites of the meets where the performances were recorded.

    In compiling these lists, I included everyone who had times of 47.47 or better, which is the absolute worst time that can get you in. I didn't try to determine altitude adjustments to times in order to filter the lists further.

    I have ordered lists for each NCAA region, and a national ordered list. I believe that they are significantly more accurate than those at rpodkam, but I make no guarantees as to their accuracy. I did eliminate one name from the list of a runner who was attributed a time that belonged to a teammate, and one entrant because he was a she. Besides that, her time didn't make the cut.

    Here are my lists. (Rank, Mark, Athlete [School] Nationality Date)

    BTW, I think Jeremy Wariner is going to win this race, and very possibly in a sub-44 time.


    EAST REGIONAL DESCENDING ORDER LIST

    001 45.23 Rickey Harris [Florida] USA 05-16
    002 45.53 Reggie Witherspoon [Florida] USA 05-16
    003 45.98 Sekou Clarke [Florida] JAM 05-02
    004 46.10 Obra Hogans [Seton Hall] USA 05-16
    005 46.18 Kellen Blassingame [Virginia] USA 05-09
    006 46.37 Eric Porter [Navy] USA 05-15
    007 46.57 Sean Campbell [Florida St.] USA 03-26
    008 46.62 Antonio Cromartie [Florida St.] USA 04-17
    009 46.64 Quentin Bowens [Seton Hall] USA 04-09
    010 46.66 Michael Bolling [Clemson] USA 05-15
    011 46.68 Milton Bolton [W. Carolina] USA 05-02
    012 46.69 Justin Byron [NC A&T] USA 05-01
    013 46.74 Eric Ramsay [Florida A&M] 05-01
    014 46.77 LaRon Bennett [Georgia] USA 04-10
    015 46.83 Kerron Clement [Florida] TRI 04-10
    016 46.84 Monterrio Adams [NC State] USA 04-09
    017 46.98 Chris Bonner [Georgetown] USA 05-15
    018 46.99 Darrus Cofield [E. Carolina] USA 05-01
    018 46.99 Douglas Bell [Delaware St.] USA 05-01
    020 47.07 Jason Young [Virginia] USA 05-09
    021 47.09 Matt Adler [Boston Univ.] USA 05-15
    022 47.11 Bryan Steele [Long Island] USA 05-02
    023 47.15 Idris Payne [Northeastern] USA 05-07
    024 47.17 Rayan Speid [Seton Hall] USA 04-09
    025 47.18 Paul Moser [Villanova] USA 04-17
    026 47.20 David Wiley [Monmouth] USA 05-02
    026 47.20 Marquis Andrews [Clemson] USA 05-01
    028 47.21 Ryan Westman [Rutgers] USA 05-01
    029 47.22 Erison Hurtault [Columbia] USA 05-09
    030 47.47 Zeickia Ledwell [UNC-Wilmington] USA 04-17


    MIDEAST REGIONAL DESCENDING ORDER LIST

    001 45.05 David Neville [Indiana] USA 05-16
    002 45.16 Kelly Willie [LSU] USA 05-16
    003 45.36 Terry Gatson [Arkansas] USA 05-16
    004 45.62 Pete Coley [LSU] JAM 04-17
    005 45.73 LaChristopher Lewis [Mississippi St.] USA 05-16
    006 45.96 Damion Barry [Auburn] TRI 05-16
    007 46.28 Jak Taylor [Tennessee] USA 05-02
    008 46.46 Nathan Vadeboncoeur [Illinois] CAN 05-16
    009 46.47 Arthur Davis [Mississippi St.] USA 04-10
    010 46.49 Miles Smith [SE Missouri] USA 05-08
    011 46.52 Nick Horton [Tennessee St.] USA 05-08
    012 46.63 Ryan Postel [Notre Dame] USA 05-01
    013 46.73 Jerod Batt [Cincinnati] USA 05-15
    014 46.74 Franz Bernard [Mississippi] JAM 04-17
    015 46.92 Joel Williams [Jackson St.] USA 05-08
    016 46.95 Stann Waithe [Michigan] USA 05-16
    017 47.02 Austin Benton [LSU] USA 03-27
    018 47.03 Soji Jibowu [C. Michigan] USA 04-09
    019 47.08 Demondrick Shumaker [Mississippi] USA 04-10
    020 47.10 Kao Wokoma [Mississippi] USA 04-17
    021 47.11 Dedrick Tillerson [Purdue] USA 05-16
    022 47.14 Kendal Pyant [Mississippi St.] USA 03-27
    022 47.14 Sean Waller [M. Tenn. St.] USA 03-20
    024 47.15 Willie Davis [S. Illinois] USA 05-15
    024 47.15 Chris Adams [W. Illinois] USA 05-15
    026 47.17 Jamel Ashley [Mississippi St.] USA 03-27
    027 47.23 Larry Inanga [DePaul] SKN 03-26
    028 47.26 Steve Wezner [C. Michigan] USA 05-14


    MIDWEST REGION DESCENDING ORDER LIST

    001 44.59 Darold Williamson [Baylor] USA 04-17
    002 44.80 Jeremy Wariner [Baylor] USA 04-17
    003 45.27 Mitch Potter [Minnesota] USA 05-16
    004 45.51 Jerry Harris [TCU] USA 05-14
    005 45.64 Albert Booker [Texas Tech] USA 03-20
    006 46.21 Adam Steele [Minnesota] USA 05-16
    007 46.33 Ashton Collins [Texas] USA 04-10
    008 46.34 Brian Kelly [Texas A&M] USA 05-01
    009 46.45 Brett Wilson [TCU] USA 05-15
    009 46.45 Raheem Travis [Texas St.] USA 05-02
    011 46.50 Carey LaCour [Houston] USA 05-02
    012 46.62 Matt Stewart [Texas Tech] USA 03-20
    013 46.68 Jonathan Rivers [Oral Roberts] USA 05-15
    014 46.75 Che Chavez [TCU] USA 03-20
    015 46.77 Joel Martin [Baylor] USA 05-01
    016 46.91 Drew Morano [Colorado St.] USA 05-15
    016 46.91 Aaron Buzard [Minnesota] USA 05-15
    018 46.93 Ben Wiggins [Rice] USA 04-24
    019 47.11 Ryan Shields [Texas-El Paso] USA 05-15
    020 47.13 Robert Harris [Wyoming] USA 05-15
    021 47.14 Mark Teter [Baylor] USA 05-15
    022 47.16 Darryl Williams [Texas Southern] USA 05-09
    022 47.16 Robb Merritt [Minnesota] USA 04-09
    024 47.25 Dwayne [Lynes-]Bell [TCU] BAH 03-20


    WEST REGION DESCENDING ORDER LIST

    001 44.58 Lewis Banda [Arizona St.] ZIM 05-15
    002 44.82 Jason Barton [Arizona St.] USA 05-15
    003 45.19 Craig Everhart [UCLA] USA 05-15
    004 45.82 Jevon Mason [Arizona] USA 05-15
    005 45.95 Matt Scherer [Oregon] USA 05-15
    006 46.01 Domenik Peterson [Arizona St.] USA 03-20
    007 46.20 Nick Sebes [Stanford] USA 05-14
    008 46.29 Matt Rowe [BYU] USA 05-15
    009 46.31 Jerome Milner [Weber St.] USA 05-15
    010 46.44 Brandon Matlock [USC] USA 05-15
    011 46.49 Steve Fitch [Arizona St.] USA 05-15
    012 46.58 Denye Versher [UCLA] USA 05-15
    013 46.92 Kedar Inico [Oregon] USA 05-01
    014 46.94 Travis Anderson [Oregon] USA 03-20
    015 46.99 Brandon Johnson [UCLA] USA 05-08
    015 46.99 Darren Woods [California] USA 04-10
    017 47.00 Raymond Ardill [Boise State] CAN 05-01
    018 47.03 David Chesser [BYU] USA 04-24
    019 47.16 Michael Pratt [USC] USA 05-08
    019 47.16 Nohel Corral [Santa Barbara] USA 04-24


    NATIONAL DESCENDING ORDER LIST

    001 44.58 Lewis Banda [Arizona St.] ZIM 05-15
    002 44.59 Darold Williamson [Baylor] USA 04-17
    003 44.80 Jeremy Wariner [Baylor] USA 04-17
    004 44.82 Jason Barton [Arizona St.] USA 05-15
    005 45.05 David Neville [Indiana] USA 05-16
    006 45.16 Kelly Willie [LSU] USA 05-16
    007 45.19 Craig Everhart [UCLA] USA 05-15
    008 45.23 Rickey Harris [Florida] USA 05-16
    009 45.27 Mitch Potter [Minnesota] USA 05-16
    010 45.36 Terry Gatson [Arkansas] USA 05-16
    011 45.51 Jerry Harris [TCU] USA 05-14
    012 45.53 Reggie Witherspoon [Florida] USA 05-16
    013 45.62 Pete Coley [LSU] JAM 04-17
    014 45.64 Albert Booker [Texas Tech] USA 03-20
    015 45.73 LaChristopher Lewis [Mississippi St.] USA 05-16
    016 45.82 Jevon Mason [Arizona] USA 05-15
    017 45.95 Matt Scherer [Oregon] USA 05-15
    018 45.96 Damion Barry [Auburn] TRI 05-16
    019 45.98 Sekou Clarke [Florida] JAM 05-02
    020 46.01 Domenik Peterson [Arizona St.] USA 03-20
    021 46.10 Obra Hogans [Seton Hall] USA 05-16
    022 46.18 Kellen Blassingame [Virginia] USA 05-09
    023 46.20 Nick Sebes [Stanford] USA 05-14
    024 46.21 Adam Steele [Minnesota] USA 05-16
    025 46.28 Jak Taylor [Tennessee] USA 05-02
    026 46.29 Matt Rowe [BYU] USA 05-15
    027 46.31 Jerome Milner [Weber St.] USA 05-15
    028 46.33 Ashton Collins [Texas] USA 04-10
    029 46.34 Brian Kelly [Texas A&M] USA 05-01
    030 46.37 Eric Porter [Navy] USA 05-15
    031 46.44 Brandon Matlock [USC] USA 05-15
    032 46.45 Brett Wilson [TCU] USA 05-15
    032 46.45 Raheem Travis [Texas St.] USA 05-02
    034 46.46 Nathan Vadeboncoeur [Illinois] CAN 05-16
    035 46.47 Arthur Davis [Mississippi St.] USA 04-10
    036 46.49 Steve Fitch [Arizona St.] USA 05-15
    036 46.49 Miles Smith [SE Missouri] USA 05-08
    038 46.50 Carey LaCour [Houston] USA 05-02
    039 46.52 Nick Horton [Tennessee St.] USA 05-08
    040 46.57 Sean Campbell [Florida St.] USA 03-26
    041 46.58 Denye Versher [UCLA] USA 05-15
    042 46.62 Antonio Cromartie [Florida St.] USA 04-17
    042 46.62 Matt Stewart [Texas Tech] USA 03-20
    044 46.63 Ryan Postel [Notre Dame] USA 05-01
    045 46.64 Quentin Bowens [Seton Hall] USA 04-09
    046 46.66 Michael Bolling [Clemson] USA 05-15
    047 46.68 Jonathan Rivers [Oral Roberts] USA 05-15
    047 46.68 Milton Bolton [W. Carolina] USA 05-02
    049 46.69 Justin Byron [NC A&T] USA 05-01
    050 46.73 Jerod Batt [Cincinnati] USA 05-15
    051 46.74 Eric Ramsay [Florida A&M] 05-01
    051 46.74 Franz Bernard [Mississippi] JAM 04-17
    053 46.75 Che Chavez [TCU] USA 03-20
    054 46.77 Joel Martin [Baylor] USA 05-01
    054 46.77 LaRon Bennett [Georgia] USA 04-10
    056 46.83 Kerron Clement [Florida] TRI 04-10
    057 46.84 Monterrio Adams [NC State] USA 04-09
    058 46.91 Drew Morano [Colorado St.] USA 05-15
    058 46.91 Aaron Buzard [Minnesota] USA 05-15
    060 46.92 Joel Williams [Jackson St.] USA 05-08
    060 46.92 Kedar Inico [Oregon] USA 05-01
    062 46.93 Ben Wiggins [Rice] USA 04-24
    063 46.94 Travis Anderson [Oregon] USA 03-20
    064 46.95 Stann Waithe [Michigan] USA 05-16
    065 46.98 Chris Bonner [Georgetown] USA 05-15
    066 46.99 Brandon Johnson [UCLA] USA 05-08
    066 46.99 Darrus Cofield [E. Carolina] USA 05-01
    066 46.99 Douglas Bell [Delaware St.] USA 05-01
    066 46.99 Darren Woods [California] USA 04-10
    070 47.00 Raymond Ardill [Boise State] CAN 05-01
    071 47.02 Austin Benton [LSU] USA 03-27
    072 47.03 David Chesser [BYU] USA 04-24
    072 47.03 Soji Jibowu [C. Michigan] USA 04-09
    074 47.07 Jason Young [Virginia] USA 05-09
    075 47.08 Demondrick Shumaker [Mississippi] USA 04-10
    076 47.09 Matt Adler [Boston Univ.] USA 05-15
    077 47.10 Kao Wokoma [Mississippi] USA 04-17
    078 47.11 Dedrick Tillerson [Purdue] USA 05-16
    078 47.11 Ryan Shields [Texas-El Paso] USA 05-15
    078 47.11 Bryan Steele [Long Island] USA 05-02
    081 47.13 Robert Harris [Wyoming] USA 05-15
    082 47.14 Mark Teter [Baylor] USA 05-15
    082 47.14 Kendal Pyant [Mississippi St.] USA 03-27
    082 47.14 Sean Waller [M. Tenn. St.] USA 03-20
    085 47.15 Willie Davis [S. Illinois] USA 05-15
    085 47.15 Chris Adams [W. Illinois] USA 05-15
    085 47.15 Idris Payne [Northeastern] USA 05-07
    088 47.16 Darryl Williams [Texas Southern] USA 05-09
    088 47.16 Michael Pratt [USC] USA 05-08
    088 47.16 Nohel Corral [Santa Barbara] USA 04-24
    088 47.16 Robb Merritt [Minnesota] USA 04-09
    092 47.17 Rayan Speid [Seton Hall] USA 04-09
    092 47.17 Jamel Ashley [Mississippi St.] USA 03-27
    094 47.18 Paul Moser [Villanova] USA 04-17
    095 47.20 David Wiley [Monmouth] USA 05-02
    095 47.20 Marquis Andrews [Clemson] USA 05-01
    097 47.21 Ryan Westman [Rutgers] USA 05-01
    098 47.22 Erison Hurtault [Columbia] USA 05-09
    099 47.23 Larry Inanga [DePaul] SKN 03-26
    100 47.25 Dwayne [Lynes-]Bell [TCU] BAH 03-20
    101 47.26 Steve Wezner [C. Michigan] USA 05-14
    102 47.47 Zeickia Ledwell [UNC-Wilmington] USA 04-17

  • #2
    Re: Potential entrant list for men's NCAA 400 meter event

    I'm wondering how the podkam lists have errors on them. Isn't that a huge problem?

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Potential entrant list for men's NCAA 400 meter event

      I was surprised to see what "appeared to be" errors, tafnut. I am not making a blanket statement here, because it could be me that is wrong.

      But some of the differences were large, in some cases best marks varied by over half a second, and of course one athlete was given a teammate's time, and one was female.

      The differences may only be as a result of submission errors. Coaches or whoever are supposed to submit verified marks, and if those people screw up, that may be where the differences lie. I can tell you than in some cases it was very difficult to track was the accurate results were, due to different name spellings, date differences, and generally poor recording of results on the net.

      But if you want to find out something bad enough, and you are willing to take the effort and have the search skills, it's pretty amazing what you can find with a whole lot of perserverance.

      I bet the compiler of those lists has to be tremendously busy right now, because the men's 400 is just a tiny slice of the results to compile.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Potential entrant list for men's NCAA 400 meter event

        When was the last time the NCAA lists published on Monday were up to date and included all of the results from the previous weekend? It almost never happens.

        Just a quick glance at the upper part of the list shows that Podkaminer was still missing some POP forms from the conference meets. I'm sure most of these apparent omissions will disppear when he updates these lists tonight or tomorrow. Why worry about this now?

        In any event, NCAA lists will never match standard statistical lists because of the unusual conversion factors used by the NCAA but not by anyone else in the world. This is more of a factor indoors than outdoors, but there are still a bunch of marks shown on the NCAA lists as converted marks.

        The NCAA lists should be taken for what they are--lists of athletes with performances that have been documented by POP forms and that have, in some cases, been adjusted in accordance with NCAA rules. And that is the only list that matters to the NCAA. There's not much point in doing a re-construction to figure out what the field in the NCAA would be if they accepted marks using different standards from those that they actually use.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Potential entrant list for men's NCAA 400 meter event

          All I posted were actual marks. I don't understand your comment.

          Most of the errors I found were in favor of faster marks, not slower, and they didn't correlate to altitude adjustments to the marks posted. Check out a few of the discrepancies, then see if you agree with me.

          I believe that the deadline for submitting marks is today, so if I am premature, then I apologize.

          If the lists at rpodkam's site aren't accurate now, I'm guessing they aren't going to be anytime soon. If you read my second post in this thread, you would see that I pointed out that rpodkam might not be responsible at all for any errors in those lists.

          But when you look at the regional seedings lists, look also at the marks I posted here, and then YOU make up your mind as to what is more correct. Please research before you respond though. I spent one hell of a lot of time researching my lists, so I don't think I need to be ashamed of them.

          And like I previously stated, I wasn't about to spend the time to adjust marks for altitude on the basis of where they occurred. Believe it or not, I do have a life to live, and I didn't get paid for my "hobby" research.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Potential entrant list for men's NCAA 400 meter event

            >All I posted were actual marks. I don't understand your comment.

            Most of the errors I found were in favor of faster marks, not slower, and they didn't
            correlate to altitude adjustments to the marks posted. Check out a few of the discrepancies, then see if you agree with me.<


            I believe that the deadline for submitting marks is today, so if I am premature, then I apologize.<

            The issue is not the deadline, it's the process by which the list is published. It's the same every week during the season, and almost every week, you'll see some marks that are omitted when the list is first updated on Monday but that are included when it's updated again on Tuesday. Same thing happened yesterday.

            I don't have any more time than you do (probably less--I wouldn't have had time to do what you did), but just for the heck of it I took the national list that you posted and compared it with what Podkaminer posted last night. I just looked at the top 50 on the list. They were identical except that (a) he correctly listed one athlete (Robert Gill) whom you had omitted and (b) a few of the athletes showed up slower on his list than on yours because of the altitude adjustment, which is clearly indicated on his list. (I did not check the dates of performance, which don't matter at all--just the athletes and the marks. And I did it quickly and didn't double-check, so I may have made a mistake myself.)

            I am not saying that his lists are always perfect--nobody puts out perfect lists all the time. It's not easy. But if you're going to do a quality check on Podkaminer, at least do it on Tuesday. And don't ignore altitude adjustments because the NCAA includes them in their qualification and seeding procedures. The real, un-adjusted times are, in this context, meaningless.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Potential entrant list for men's NCAA 400 meter event

              Actually, as far as I am concerned, the altitude adjustments for any race of 400 meters or less are worthless. They make no distiction between those athletes who are local to the altitudes where the marks occured and those who are just in town for the weekend. At shorter differences there may be a very slight benefit from reduced air pressure at altitude, but it doesn't even begin to compare to the effects of potential allowable wind.

              And the policy of including marks - unadjusted marks - regardless of the wind is just flat ludicrous. If one guy posts a 10.20 against a 2 meter wind in the 100, and another guy posts a 10.19 with a 3.7 tailwind, the guy that got the tailwind is seeded higher.

              Even the IAAF has more sense than that.

              And my list was not a fact-check on rpodkam. I didn't put it together for any motive other than pure interest in who had the best times. Whatever controversy there might be about marks will be settled in three weeks when the NCAA meet is over, anyway.

              Even though I posted the marks that I though were correct, unadjusted times, there were a number of times that I viewed with skepticism although it didn't cause me to censor those times. Most notably, I question the marks from the Pac-10 meet in the 400, because it seemed like an inordinate number of athletes posted results well above what one would expect as normal improvements of seasonal bests.

              But the numbers are there, and those are the ones I posted. I'll leave my skepticism aside until we find out who really has the goods at the NCAA meet. I predict that not less than one college 400 man will be on the American Olympic team, and 2-3 is not out of the question.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Potential entrant list for men's NCAA 400 meter event

                >Actually, as far as I am concerned, the altitude adjustments for any race of 400 meters or less are worthless. They make no distiction between those athletes who are local to the altitudes where the marks occured and those who are just in town for the weekend.<

                You're implying that training at altitude makes a difference in the sprints. You may be right, but I've never heard that it does. I've always thought that the altitude effect was the same, whether you were local to the altitude or just in for a day.


                >>At shorter differences there may be a very slight benefit from reduced air pressure at altitude, but it doesn't even begin to compare to the effects of potential allowable wind. And the policy of including marks - unadjusted marks - regardless of the wind is just flat ludicrous.<<

                I agree. If you're going to adjust for altitude, you really should adjust for wind. The example you gave was a good one.

                Comment

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