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OK folks, rip us to shreds! (T&FN predictions)

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  • #46
    Re: OK folks, rip us to shreds! (T&FN predictions)

    Originally posted by AS
    Hmmm, Dani Samuels not in Top 10 for WDT (despite having a Diamond League win this season). Last time TFN left her off a prediction list she won a world title... #justsaying
    I'm not sure she would be in my top 10. Maybe just barely; certainly not in the top 8.

    Originally posted by Marlow
    Unless, of course, the Belarusian already proved she can by winning the Olympics last time.
    Menkova may not win, but since she is the defending champion and leads the world this year, it makes zero sense for her NOT to be the favorite*.
    Point is, apart from 2008 she never made it through qualifying at a major championships. In Beijing, she only just scraped through in 11th place before taking the gold, so she obviously has a problem with qualifying rounds. And the quality in depth of women's HT has really improved this year, so she'll likely have to do significantly better this time to make the final.
    Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

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    • #47
      Re: OK folks, rip us to shreds! (T&FN predictions)

      Originally posted by Powell
      Point is, apart from 2008 she never made it through qualifying at a major championships. In Beijing, she only just scraped through in 11th place before taking the gold, so she obviously has a problem with qualifying rounds. And the quality in depth of women's HT has really improved this year, so she'll likely have to do significantly better this time to make the final.
      Agree with your general point, but just how much has the depth really improved? Perhaps the depth is a bit better now, but not very much... in fact, I'd say Menkova herself has improved more than that!

      IAAF released a provisional startlist for the wHT the other day... comparing that with the entry list from Beijing, we have the following (all stats based on SBs):

                      '12     '08     '08 + 1.37
      Menkova   78.69 77.32 78.69
      #12           74.47 73.50 74.87
      # >74        17      11      16
      # >73        18      14      19
      # >72        23      18      27
      # >71        30      21      37
      # >70        32      36      41 + 1 @ 70.00
      Entrants    39*     50      50
      Q Cut        ????     69.36 70.73

      *actually the list says 40, but the Finnish entry is bogus... I don't know about the other 39 :wink:

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      • #48
        Re: OK folks, rip us to shreds! (T&FN predictions)

        You don't have SergEy MorgunOv in the top ten, yet he has the longest jump of the year. I know he's a junior, but...

        Here are a few that I condsider "US wishful thinking":

        Carter 7th W SP
        Flanagan 4th W MAR
        USA 1st W 4X100
        Huddle 7th W 5000
        Montano 5th W 800
        Johnson 9th M HT

        Cheers,
        Alan Shank
        Woodland, CA, USA

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        • #49
          Re: OK folks, rip us to shreds! (T&FN predictions)

          Gliders will kill the spinners in the wet ring. Look for lots of fouls and a winning mark of just over 70' by a non American, most likely a German. USA gets only one medal, Hoffa.

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          • #50
            Re: OK folks, rip us to shreds! (T&FN predictions)

            Originally posted by Alan Shank
            You don't have SergEy MorgunOv in the top ten, yet he has the longest jump of the year. I know he's a junior, but.......A
            hm..... i distinctly remember noting he was missing at one point and inserting him in the copy.... got lost in in the many revisions I guess.

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            • #51
              Re: OK folks, rip us to shreds! (T&FN predictions)

              Originally posted by gh
              Originally posted by Alan Shank
              You don't have SergEy MorgunOv in the top ten, yet he has the longest jump of the year. I know he's a junior, but.......A
              hm..... i distinctly remember noting he was missing at one point and inserting him in the copy.... got lost in in the many revisions I guess.
              I did check today to see whether there was a revision, but there wasn't.
              He doesn't have too much backup to that 8.35, but he did jump 8.20w in May and won the World Junior with 8.09, so he has some international experience this year. Who knows, he may not even make the final, but I just thought it was odd not to see him in there at all.
              Cheers,
              Alan Shank
              Woodland, CA, USA

              Comment


              • #52
                Re: OK folks, rip us to shreds! (T&FN predictions)

                Originally posted by Rye Catcher
                Gliders will kill the spinners in the wet ring. Look for lots of fouls and a winning mark of just over 70' by a non American, most likely a German. USA gets only one medal, Hoffa.
                And it rains 24-hours a day in London?

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