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Re: 2012 OG: m5000–Gebremeskel leads Q to final at 13:15.15
Remarkably good running in the heats! Not sure about Rupp, although he must have known he was going to be OK despite missing the Q; he didn't seem concerned. In his heat, last K was 2:26.2, 54.3; 1st head, about the same off a slower pace. Ibrahimov only five seconds off his PB. Collis Birmingham very disappointing, also Lebid, a cross-country specialist.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Well, you know, Lagat's getting on in years -- beyond a certain age, someone should always check what you're wearing before you go out of the house. :wink:
If someone had told me a week ago that the USA would have more runners in the 5k final than Kenya ... that we would have two across the finish in the men's 1500 before any Kenyan ... and that Rupp would go silver (I thought/hoped he would get bronze) in the 10k, but the top Kenyan would be 5th ... I would have said Sure! What'ya smokin?
Kenya still has the deepest talent base of any nation, but my, oh my, this has been a nightmare Olympics for them. The crazy thing is they went out of their way to (1) have the 10k trials at sea level in a climate similar to London, and (2) emphasize the importance of the Team camp & team spirit.
They still have some bright spots;
- Gold & Bronze in the 3000St,
- Silver in the wMar, although no other nation can call a 2-4-20 a disappointment,
- Rudisha looking powerful,
- Still a powerful looking mMar team, and
- don't forget Julius Yego in the men's javelin!
But there will be some head scratching and blame thrown around in AK circles after the Games. It will be interesting to see how the Kenyans do on the DL circuit after the Games. Will they revert to form and kick butt? Maybe they over thought everything in London, and need to get back to the Sammy Wanjiru approach of pedal to the metal from the gun.
In any case, this should be a smokin' final. I agree, I don't think G&G are afraid of anyone. Big question, as always, will be; Who sets the pace? Will the Kenyans just go for it? The Ethiopians? I don't think we'll see Rupp in the lead, even if by accident. He has a 3:34 under his belt and, along with the confidence from the 10k, believes he can kick with the Africans.
If it is slow to medium, Lagat will be there. If it is screaming and/or killer surges, it will be interesting to see if he (Lagat) still has it at age 37. And don't forget Lomong ... if it is slower than 13:00 pace, I think he will be in the mix. Iguider also.
Predictions?
Farah the favorite, with G&G, Lagat & Rupp, Koech right behind, in just about any order.
Re: 2012 OG: m5000–Gebremeskel leads Q to final at 13:15.15
Don't neglect Lopez Lomong in the final!
His 3:32.20 is faster than Rupp and even faster than Farah and the more recent version of Lagat.
And he did run that 53 second lap at Stanford, even though it was the "wrong" lap!!
If he's ON, and if the race goes sub-13:00, look for Lomong to be right in there.
Maybe 12:55??
Re: 2012 OG: m5000–Gebremeskel leads Q to final at 13:15.15
Is there any reason why this race wouldn't go sub13:00? The 1500 and10000 are over so no one is saving anything. Of course some runners may be exhausted from one or the other race.
Re: 2012 OG: m5000–Gebremeskel leads Q to final at 13:15.15
The Ethiopians have been quoted as saying they made a mistake by letting the 10k be too slow so I expect them to make sure there is an honest pace. Expect a barnburner. I would be surprised if this race does not end up sub 13. Team tactics to play out probably with someone sacrificing themselves for their teammate(s).
Re: 2012 OG: m5000–Gebremeskel leads Q to final at 13:15.15
Originally posted by Dave
Is there any reason why this race wouldn't go sub13:00? The 1500 and10000 are over so no one is saving anything. Of course some runners may be exhausted from one or the other race.
Well that has been true for eternity and still the Oly 5ks can be a jog in the park for most of the race.
The Kenyans have nothing to lose at this point, so maybe they will do something. A repeat of 1984! There was a race.
Re: 2012 OG: m5000–Gebremeskel leads Q to final at 13:15.15
Originally posted by Conor Dary
The Kenyans have nothing to lose at this point, so maybe they will do something. A repeat of 1984! There was a race.
Huh? Kenyans 5th and 6th. Either Markus Ryffel or Antonio Leitao (CRS) made a move w/1200 left, IIRC. No dice; Aouita won easily. 13:05.89.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Re: 2012 OG: m5000–Gebremeskel leads Q to final at 13:15.15
Originally posted by aaronk
Don't neglect Lopez Lomong in the final!
His 3:32.20 is faster than Rupp and even faster than Farah and the more recent version of Lagat.
And he did run that 53 second lap at Stanford, even though it was the "wrong" lap!!
If he's ON, and if the race goes sub-13:00, look for Lomong to be right in there.
Maybe 12:55??
Agree w aaronk about Lomong as a "person of interest." There are many of these in this final, including all the formchart names, Levins and Lomong. Along with his 1500m credentials, he has run 1:46 and 7:44 (WIC) this year. Also, that 5k at Stanford was -- in a very weird way -- maybe the most impressive 13:11 I've ever seen. I really think he could be a factor -- but I also think that about almost everyone, as I scan the list of finalists.
I have no idea how this race is going to go, but there are so many athletes of interest in it, and so many possibilities -- I hope it is a great one. I will be surprised if it goes under 13:00, but I've already been surprised by a bunch of things at this OG, so who knows?
Re: 2012 OG: m5000–Gebremeskel leads Q to final at 13:15.15
[quote=Alan Shank]
Originally posted by "Conor Dary":3a39jx84
The Kenyans have nothing to lose at this point, so maybe they will do something. A repeat of 1984! There was a race.
Huh? Kenyans 5th and 6th. Either Markus Ryffel or Antonio Leitao (CRS) made a move w/1200 left, IIRC. No dice; Aouita won easily. 13:05.89.[/quote:3a39jx84]
The point here is that that race had a relentless pace pretty much from the gun--completely weeded out the kickers long before the gun lap was in sight.
Re: 2012 OG: m5000–Gebremeskel leads Q to final at 13:15.15
Gebrhiwet is apparently injured. I don't think he will be a medal contender. Will he sacrifice himself for Gebremeskel?
Farah and Rupp admit they are tired from 10K, so they will prefer a slow pace. So does Lagat even though he is fresh.
Given how the team tactics did not work for either Kenya or Ethiopia in 10K, I'd predict the winning time over 13:00 with the gold medal decided between Farah and Lagat.
Re: 2012 OG: m5000–Gebremeskel leads Q to final at 13:15.15
Originally posted by Conor Dary
Well that has been true for eternity and still the Oly 5ks can be a jog in the park for most of the race.
The Kenyans have nothing to lose at this point, so maybe they will do something. A repeat of 1984! There was a race.
I loved that 1984 5k. The distance guys burned off the milers (Walker, Flynn, Coughlan?).
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