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Was Gerald Lawson (WR Breakers in T&F Athletics) right?

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  • Was Gerald Lawson (WR Breakers in T&F Athletics) right?

    Remember that 1997 book by Gerald Lawson, "World Record Breakers in Track and Field Athletics"?
    In it , he gave a pretty thorough history of each event, men and women, then predicted what the WR's would be in 2015.
    A really GREAT book, which I bought and read in 1997...or soon thereafter.
    So let's check out his predictions, and see if he got it right.
    I'll list, in order, the WR then (as of February 1997), Lawson's predictions for 2015, then the current WR.

    MEN

    100.............9.84 (Feb 1997 WR).........9.79 (2015 prediction).......9.58 (current WR)
    200............19.32..........................19.3 2..........................19.19
    400........... 43.29..........................43.20.............. ............43.18
    800..........1:41.73.......................1:40.20 (!!)...................1:40.91
    1500........3:27.37.......................3:25.00. .......................3:26.00
    1 mile......3:44.39.......................3:42.00... .....................3:43.13
    5000.......12:44.39.....................12:25.00 (WOW!!)...........12:37.35
    10000.....26:38.08.....................26:10.00... ....................26:17.53
    Mar...... 2:06:50......................2:05:55.............. ..........2:03:38 (or 2:03:02)
    SC...........7:59.18.......................7:53.00 .......................7:53.63
    110H..........12.91........................12.86.. ..........................12.87
    400H..........46.78........................46.78.. ..........................46.78
    HJ.............2.45..........................2.48. .............................2.45
    LJ.............8.95..........................9.00. .............................8.95
    TJ............18.29........................18.29.. ...........................18.29
    PV............6.14...........................6.20. .............................6.14 (6.15 indoors)
    SP...........23.12.........................23.30.. ..........................23.12
    DT..........74.08.........................74.08... .........................74.08
    JT..........98.48........................102.00 (!!!)......................98.48
    HT.........86.74......................... 88.50...........................86.74
    Dec..........8891..........................9125... .........................9039

    I'll do the Women's list in another post......no room here.

  • #2
    Re: Was Gerald Lawson (WR Breakers in T&F Athletics) right?

    Okay, now for the women......using the same format (Feb 1997 WR, Lawson's 2015 prediction, current WR).

    100...............10.49.................10.49..... ..............10.49
    200...............21.34.................21.34..... ..............21.34
    400...............47.60.................47.60..... ..............47.60
    800..............1:53.28..............1:52.00..... ............1:53.28
    1500............3:50.46..............3:50.46...... ...........3:50.46
    1 mile..........4:12.56..............(No prediction!!).......4:12.56
    (He gives a prediction for the 3000, then a widely run distance, but I'll pass on this one.)
    5000...........14:36.45..............14:15.00..... ..........14:11.15
    10000.........29:31.78.............. 29:31.78...............29:31.78
    Mar...........2:21.06................2:20:05...... ...........2:15:25
    SC.............(No WR then)........(No prediction.).........8:58.81
    100H.............12.21.................12.18...... .............12.21
    400H.............52.61.................51.90...... .............52.34
    HJ................2.09...................2.11..... ................2.09
    LJ................7.52...................7.62..... ................7.52
    TJ..............15.50...................16.10 (!!!).............15:50
    PV.............. 4.55....................5.00....................5. 06
    SP..............22.63..................22.78...... .............22.63
    DT............76.80....................76.80...... ............76.80
    JT............Change in Jav.)........(Same.)................72.28
    HT............69.42...................(No prediction.).......79.?? (Sorry, can't remember!!)
    Hept.........7291.....................7475 (!!!)..............7291.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Was Gerald Lawson (WR Breakers in T&F Athletics) right?

      I don't see any of the four throwing event records being broken by 2015 ops: as for the ladies' throws...... :cry:

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Was Gerald Lawson (WR Breakers in T&F Athletics) right?

        Note how prescient he was in his predictions for the men's 400, 110H, and SC.
        Also quite close for the women's 100H, HJ, PV, and 5K.

        He was WAY off in the men's 100, 5K, Mar, HT, and JT.
        Also WAY off in the Women's Mar, 400H, and Hept.

        He obviously did NOT see the marathon boom that came about in the last 10 years.
        Nor did he have much confidence that women would progress much there!!

        His most outrageous predictions, IMO, were the men's 5K of 12:25.00, and the women's Hept going to 7475.

        I'm VERY optimistic about possible WR's.....especially in the distances....but even I don't see a 12:25 in my lifetime!!
        That's very close to 4:00 mile pace.....for THREE miles in a row!!
        Komen did it for TWO......but......!!!

        As for a 7475 in the Hept??
        Jeez!!
        I don't see JJK's mark going down.....until they change the scoring tables (like they did when CK Yang scored 9121.....his score went down to 8009 with the new tables!!).

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Was Gerald Lawson (WR Breakers in T&F Athletics) right?

          Originally posted by aaronk
          Mar...... 2:06:50......................2:05:55.............. ..........2:03:38 (or 2:03:02)

          Mar...........2:21.06................2:20:05...... ...........2:15:25
          For the person that was bashing PR for her 'soft' record. He under estimated the men's advance and though that the women's mark was already at equilibrium, essentially.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Was Gerald Lawson (WR Breakers in T&F Athletics) right?

            Interesting to note that he was way off on the shortest and longest distance on the men's side.

            Comment

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