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  • NXN: Baxter vs. Cain [split]

    Originally posted by Friar
    Fanning, a senior now, finished 11th in 18:50.8,
    I think she's been inj/sick and packed with the FM front-five today.

    Some odd things happened between the two Org's (NXN/FL) races. You have to wonder about how some were recruited to which particular race (I think I saw one sandbagger out there)?
    Could Cain have run @VCP today if she wanted to or is that out of her hands now? A few really good kids apparently didn't race at all.
    While it looks like the talent edge goes to NXN I guess it depends on how much FL values having Baxter in its race who would certainly be favored over "Little Mary."

    [quote:2sxpmm4c]looks like Mary ran just to win!!
    Whether she has the chops to do that against a more talented (Neale, Frazier, Knight et. al) field is to be determined. But it would be nice if there was one race (not both).[/quote:2sxpmm4c]

    Hope I won't have to eat my words, but with PR's of 2:03.34 and 4:11.01, I don't see ANY current HS'er who can challenge Mary Cain!!

    Sarah Baxter, off her 16:00 at Mt SAC recently, might have markedly improved.
    If so, when she goes to the track, she might go under 4:15 for 1500 and 10:00 for 2 miles.....but she hasn't yet!!
    Others might run some good times when indoor season rolls around.
    (CC times are hard to compare...or rate!)

    Mary is MILES (pun intended!! ) ahead of the chase pack.....now.

  • #2
    Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

    Originally posted by aaronk
    Hope I won't have to eat my words, but with PR's of 2:03.34 and 4:11.01, I don't see ANY current HS'er who can challenge Mary Cain!!
    One former fervent poster would have made the point that the faster that 800 time, the less likely the athlete is to do well in the long races. While it is true that great high school athletes at one distance do pretty well at others 'of a kind', the 800 and XC not mot much 'of a kind'. However, it is the case that the 4:11 is much better than the 2:03, so the next distance up, 3000/3200/3218 should still be pretty good, but 5000 and 6000 are starting to really stretch the range.

    Also note that the Fanning performance has a slightly ominous under-tone for those too enamored of a high school sophomore's performances.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

      Maybe no one will touch Cain during track season, but Neale has consistently been running quite a bit faster than Cain all season on hilly cross country courses. Cain's 800 and 1500 track PRs aren't that relevant to _this_ cross country season, where she in no way looks to be a heavy favorite nationally.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

        Originally posted by polevaultpower
        Maybe no one will touch Cain during track season, but Neale has consistently been running quite a bit faster than Cain all season on hilly cross country courses. Cain's 800 and 1500 track PRs aren't that relevant to _this_ cross country season, where she in no way looks to be a heavy favorite nationally.
        Why is it that track distance races so often become tactical affairs, when cross country races seem to be all-out?! Cain would be a prohibitive favorite (IMO) in a tactical race, but I agree that holding a very hard pace over varying terrain could be a major challenge for her against XC-savvy runners like Baxter.

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        • #5
          Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

          Originally posted by Marlow
          Originally posted by polevaultpower
          Maybe no one will touch Cain during track season, but Neale has consistently been running quite a bit faster than Cain all season on hilly cross country courses. Cain's 800 and 1500 track PRs aren't that relevant to _this_ cross country season, where she in no way looks to be a heavy favorite nationally.
          Why is it that track distance races so often become tactical affairs, when cross country races seem to be all-out?! Cain would be a prohibitive favorite (IMO) in a tactical race, but I agree that holding a very hard pace over varying terrain could be a major challenge for her against XC-savvy runners like Baxter.
          Because there is one ideal spot on the track. And that is running in lane one behind the leader. And you don't have to really worry about where you are going. In cross country just drafting isn't nearly as easy.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

            Cross country races are probably more tactical than it looks. One way we categorize a track race as tactical is the split times. Those are not really used and the splits are for long periods and for dissimilar terrain. Maybe it would be good if they did not make track splits available...

            Another reason for the difference is the size of the pack. On the track there are 10-15 runners while in cross there are 10 times as many.

            [also, the 'ideal spot' mentioned by Conor Dary]

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

              I agree with PoleVaultPower. The fight to watch at NXN will be Baxter and Neale, neither have been challenged this year.
              You have to look at the course as well, Toni Reavis called it right last week week at Borderclash while interviewing Amy-Eloise Neale, calling Portland Meadows "lake Portland." It will be another slop fest, Neale is strong and this will be her 4th appearance there, she knows the course and will be hungry to end her HS XC career with the national title.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

                Originally posted by fpd4043
                I agree with PoleVaultPower. The fight to watch at NXN will be Baxter and Neale, neither have been challenged this year.
                You have to look at the course as well, Toni Reavis called it right last week week at Borderclash while interviewing Amy-Eloise Neale, calling Portland Meadows "lake Portland." It will be another slop fest, Neale is strong and this will be her 4th appearance there, she knows the course and will be hungry to end her HS XC career with the national title.

                If it's a "slop fest" it will favor the lighter runners who will sink less into the mud. So that will favor Sarah B.... Last year had the same conditions and Sarah Baxter won, if I remember correctly... Neale was 5th and Mary Cain was right behind her in 6th. I think the order will remain the same this year, except they should take the top 3 places. If all three run it should be a great race!

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

                  If the race comes down to either Mary Cain, Sarah Baxter, or Amy Eloise-Neale, I'd predict it would be.....

                  1. Mary Cain
                  2. Amy Eloise-Neale
                  3. Sarah Baxter

                  Why?
                  Their NAMES!

                  Baxter.
                  That "X" in her name brings on the "X-factor".
                  The "X-factor" is unknown!!
                  How could I possibly choose an "unknown"...and feel confident about it?

                  Eloise-Neale.
                  Such a lovely, delicate, feminine, PRETTY name!!
                  But "pretty" is as "pretty" mosttimes DOESN'T!!!
                  Thus, Amy finishes second!!

                  So why Mary Cain for first?
                  Her NAME!!
                  Mary has FOUR letters.
                  Cain has FOUR letters.

                  That's SYMMETRY!!
                  And "symmetry" WINS!!

                  Note: The above is meant to be a JOKE!! FUNNY!! NOT to be taken at all seriously!!

                  Just so you'd know!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

                    I really do not like NxN. High school XC is a local team race of little real national interest. Outside of a trivial fraction of the population who cares which team wins? It keeps the best runners from competing against each other (Footlocker). At the next level the talent gets concentrated to a much higher degree. Furthermore, a lot more people care about who wins because probably a thousand times more people care about the winning college teams.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

                      i read that Emelia Goreka (Euro JCC champ) had a hard time dropping 800 prodigies Jessica Judd and Jen Walsh at the UK trials last week. So maybe Baxter won't be able to get away from Cain either?
                      I'd still go Baxter, Neale, Cain as this course could be in rough shape.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

                        Name any 3-way battles of the past in T&F....

                        and tomorrow's race between Sarah Baxter, Amy Eloise-Neale, and Mary Cain...

                        won't have to take a back seat!!

                        At least in PRE-race hype and anticipation!!!

                        God, I'd give almost ANYTHING to be there!!
                        Or to see it LIVE on some "livestream" video!!

                        I still believe Cain will win, with Baxter and Neale battling it out for 2nd.

                        Questions:

                        Will the course be too muddy?
                        Who, if anyone, will take it out from the gun??
                        Who will make the first move in a "tactical" race??
                        Will they SHATTER the course record....all three of them??
                        And of course....
                        which one will WIN??

                        (GREAT article about the race, and these 3 girls, on the front page!!)

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

                          Apparently, there WILL be a LIVE webcast of the Nike Cross Nationals!!

                          Click on the listing on the front page schedule.
                          You'll come to the race site, and the video!!

                          It's supposed to start at 9:30 a.m. Pacific time, with the girl's race beginning 35 minutes later!!

                          HURRAY!!!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

                            Originally posted by aaronk
                            Apparently, there WILL be a LIVE webcast of the Nike Cross Nationals!!

                            Click on the listing on the front page schedule.
                            You'll come to the race site, and the video!!

                            It's supposed to start at 9:30 a.m. Pacific time, with the girl's race beginning 35 minutes later!!

                            HURRAY!!!
                            The height disparity of the three ladies should make for an interesting looking (but easy to tell apart) group of 3 if the three ladies who've been mentioned most here break away from the pack. For anybody who's not familiar with the athletes, Amy-Eloise Neale is 5'10", Mary Cain is 5'5", and Sarah Baxter is just 5'0" even.

                            I'm looking forward to watching the webcast too... Hopefully aaronk won't do too much gloating or taunting in here if Mary wins... :wink:

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

                              Originally posted by Blues
                              Originally posted by aaronk
                              Apparently, there WILL be a LIVE webcast of the Nike Cross Nationals!!

                              Click on the listing on the front page schedule.
                              You'll come to the race site, and the video!!

                              It's supposed to start at 9:30 a.m. Pacific time, with the girl's race beginning 35 minutes later!!

                              HURRAY!!!
                              The height disparity of the three ladies should make for an interesting looking (but easy to tell apart) group of 3 if the three ladies who've been mentioned most here break away from the pack. For anybody who's not familiar with the athletes, Amy-Eloise Neale is 5'10", Mary Cain is 5'5", and Sarah Baxter is just 5'0" even.

                              I'm looking forward to watching the webcast too... Hopefully aaronk won't do too much gloating or taunting in here if Mary wins... :wink:

                              Actually, I'm not SUPER confident of a Cain win this morning!!
                              It's CC....not track!!
                              On a track....either indoors or outdoors.....I'd take Cain at ANY distance (against Baxter and Neale) from 800 through 5000!!

                              CC is different.
                              But if it comes down to them tied with 400 or 500 meters to go, I'll definitely take Cain!!
                              While Baxter has run fast over the WHOLE course (Mt SAC and others), she can't match Cain's ability to go in the low 60's on a "last lap"!! Same with Neale!!

                              IF there's gonna be someone ELSE winning this race, watch for Bella Burda, who finished 2nd to Cain in the NY race last week.
                              I can't find any times for her (on the track) from last year (2011).
                              So, unless she did something this past spring, she's come out of nowhere to finish 2nd to Cain!!

                              Comment

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