Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake [4:10.77 HSR]

[aaronk]

There are several Mary Cain threads already started, but this story......this RACE......deserves a separate thread.....so here it is!
It's been announced that 11th grade HS student, and holder of FOUR HSR's on indoor tracks (although she broke SIX records, as two of them were her's already!!), as well as the 1500 HSR outdoors, is going to face Morgan Uceny, Jenny Simpson, and Shannon Rowbury over 1500 meters at the Drake Relays in late April.

I don't know if she'll appear anywhere else before that....perhaps as a tune-up sort of race......but I doubt Alberto Salazar would be putting her up against America's true elite milers unless he thought she could....and will....hold her own!!

Is he putting her in there just for the experience??
To lose by 3 to 5 seconds (or more)....for the experience??
To break her own HSR of 4:11.01....and place 4th (or worse).....like she did at the WJC's??

I don't know.
I would hope it's because he (and Mary) believe she's ready to really mix it up.....and perhaps WIN....against America's Big Three of Female Mile Running!!

This is IT!!
This is the showdown we've been waiting for.

She wasn't seriously expected to contest Tirunesh Dibaba in that Boston indoor 2 mile.
Hell, she wasn't even expected to WIN anything during indoors!!
Just to get "experience" (sic!) racing against mid-tier milers (Bowman, Sifuentes, Reid, Moser et al), and learn race strategy!!

(Running a 2:55 first 880 in a championship mile is STRATEGY????? :shock: )

Anyway, while I would have preferred to see her first race be a 2 mile (full distance!!), or a 5000, I'm very excited she'll be running against the BIG GIRLS!!!

Because Mary Cain was the BIGGEST GIRL.....at least as far as popularity went....during this last indoor season!!

I just hope the race is FAST!! 4:05....or faster!!
And let the best woman win!!

[doug5321]

Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

IF
cain gan run 4:05.50 or faster that would be the A standard, last year 4 american women had the A standard in the 1500, uceny, rowbury, simpson and g. anderson, so if cain gets the A she has a very good shot at the world 1500 team, remember the USA will have 4 women in the 1500, jenny simpson is automatic and the next 3.

also the world youth trials are the week AFTER the moscow worlds trials, so cain can do both world youth and worlds this year.

[aaronk]

Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

While listening to Neil Diamond's "Home Before Dark" CD (the one with 2 bonus songs on it!), I thought about Cain's Drake race.
(Good album....but his "12 Songs" from 2005 is better, IMO!! )

Leaving Simpson out of it for now (She has a pass!!), I doubt Uceny or Rowbury would be racing Drake just for the exercise.
They need to run the "A" standard!!
And that all 3 "biggies" are going to be there tells me they're going to make a serious attempt at 4:05.50 or faster.
And I doubt they'll want to cut it too close.
Thus, I expect theyll be shooting for a sub-4:04 time....perhaps closer to 4:00....just to make sure they get it!!

IF....IF that's to be, then I'd look for a pace of 64, 66 or 67 (2:10 or 2:11), another 66 or 67 (3:16 or 3:17), then whatever they can do over the last 300 meters.
If they're running close to 60 or 61 last 400, that would bring them home in about 4:01 or 4:02.

Can Cain handle such a pace from the gun?
I'd say she can definitely handle the 2:10.....and maybe the 3:16......but I'm not certain she could kick a 60 (or faster!!) after such a pace!!

In her 4:11 from 2012, I believe she reached 1100 at around 3:07 or 3:08.
In the race scenario I suggested above, they'd reach 1100 at around 3:00 or 3:01.

But she DID run a 58.6 final 400 at USATF (off a 4:07 at 1209 meters!!), and her final 600 was about 1:31.5.

[aaronk]

Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

I suggested a fast "A standard" race scenario above.
Here's another possibility.

Say Uceny and Rowbury both decide to try for the "A" at a later date---say, Stanford in May, NY or Pre DL's---and use Drake to "shake off the cobwebs".
Cain of course wouldn't have to do that, as she raced frequently---and fast...indoors!!

So, say the race instead goes something like this:

66-67 first lap.
2:14 to 2:16 first 800.
3:22 to 3:24 through 1200, but they pass 1100 at about 3:05 to 3:07.

Cain could stick with that kind of pace fairly easily.
She ran an indoor 2:47.29 1000 in 2012.

So, say Uceny takes off for a long sprint, and hits 1300 at around 3:36 or 3:37.
Cain stays close, and shoots ahead with a final 200 of 28.5, winning in 4:05.5.....just barely making the "A".
Uceny just misses, running 4:06.8, following by Rowbury in 4:07.5, and Simpson in 4:07.7.

In other words, if they run tactically, they give the race to Cain.
If they gun it from the gun (sic!), Cain might lose, but she'll be close, and also get her "A"!!

A third scenario, of course, is it's rainy and windy and everybody's feeling sick, and they run 4:12 to 4:15.....with sub-60 closers by all of them!!

[lionelp1]

Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Aaronk you are mostly talking to yourself. MC is not quite ready for a couple of weeks to set a new WR of say 3.50 ish :lol:
I dont think it would be fair to say you are obsessed with this young female athlete. :roll:

[Master Po]

Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

I guess the lineup in this race is primarily the result of the narrow qualifying window for WC. I'm sure by later in the season as things play out I will have plenty of complaints about the qualifying period, but one of the results of it right now is that several of USA's top women 1500/mile runners are set to compete against each other at Drake. That's a good thing, imo. We often bemoan regarding various parts of our sport that there is not enough head-to-head competition among top athletes, on an international or sometimes even a national level. So here is one potentially very good race among top performers in a reasonably strong event in the USA. I am looking forward to it. Curious to see who else will be in the field. With these four in it, it will be a good opportunity to pursue the "A" (and "B") standard, which pretty much everyone interested in contesting this event needs. I hope they set it up well (e.g., with someone to take the pace out well in first 800), and I really, really hope the weather is good.

[aaronk]

Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Aaronk you are mostly talking to yourself. MC is not quite ready for a couple of weeks to set a new WR of say 3.50 ish :lol:
I dont think it would be fair to say you are obsessed with this young female athlete. :roll:

Yeah, I probably AM talking to myself!
And I've been accused before of "obsession"....and worse, re my interest in Cain.
WHY am I so enthralled by her??
Simple.

She's the greatest female HS runner (American) of all time!!
Second, she's made a VERY rapid progression since her freshman year in 2011.
(4:17.84 to 4:11.01. 4:40+ to 4:28.25.)
She's WON two races against some fair second-tier professional runners!!
Third, it's more common for a young runner....male or female.....to NOT progress rapidly after the first year or two of fast times.
Prime example, Jordan Hasay. She actually ran SLOWER in her senior year than in her junior year..
Finally, no female high school runner....and maybe no female open runner has a kick like Cain's!!

And how many HS runners, male or female, have been INVITED to race against America's, and even the WORLD'S, elite (Dibaba!!)??
Very few!!
And the only one in the past 15 years who's had any kind of success at it is Alan Webb!!

Obsessed??
Nope!!
Just thrilled to be alive during the beginning of the career of the greatest HS female runner EVER!!

P.S. I'm not the only one who feels Cain is capable of meeting the "A" standard in the 1500 this year!! And I doubt Uceny and Co. are going to take beating "Little Mary" Cain for granted!!

[aaronk]

Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

I guess the lineup in this race is primarily the result of the narrow qualifying window for WC. I'm sure by later in the season as things play out I will have plenty of complaints about the qualifying period, but one of the results of it right now is that several of USA's top women 1500/mile runners are set to compete against each other at Drake. That's a good thing, imo. We often bemoan regarding various parts of our sport that there is not enough head-to-head competition among top athletes, on an international or sometimes even a national level. So here is one potentially very good race among top performers in a reasonably strong event in the USA. I am looking forward to it. Curious to see who else will be in the field. With these four in it, it will be a good opportunity to pursue the "A" (and "B") standard, which pretty much everyone interested in contesting this event needs. I hope they set it up well (e.g., with someone to take the pace out well in first 800), and I really, really hope the weather is good.

While this thread is about Cain and the Drake 1500, other events are LOADED too!!
Have you read the front page article yet??

Harper, Wells, and Jones, as well as Carruthers, Q Harrison, Porter, and Castlin in the 100H.
Whiting, Hoffa, and Cantwell in the SP.
A Merritt (!!) Richardson, and Porter in the 110H.
Santos and Wariner in the 400.
Tinsley, Culson, and Dutch in the 400H.
Some hot relays!!

Like you said, let's hope for good weather!!

[odelltrclan]

Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Aaronk sometimes your enthusiasm belies your smarts. Mary's good indoor results will have been two months prior and she was peaking. It was back to basics for a peak that they hope will be a little bit later outdoors. This will probably be a bit of a rust buster for her as well. It is exciting to see her mix it up with some of the country's best. Just lay off the time expectations!

I foresee a day when Mary wins against some elite runners only to be chided by Aaronk because you were not satisfied by the time and think she is "dogging it"!

[aaronk]

Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Aaronk sometimes your enthusiasm belies your smarts. Mary's good indoor results will have been two months prior and she was peaking. It was back to basics for a peak that they hope will be a little bit later outdoors. This will probably be a bit of a rust buster for her as well. It is exciting to see her mix it up with some of the country's best. Just lay off the time expectations!

I foresee a day when Mary wins against some elite runners only to be chided by Aaronk because you were not satisfied by the time and think she is "dogging it"!

True that, about Drake being sort of a "second season" for Cain.

The question still remains, however, what Uceny and Co are planning.
Will it be a "rust buster" for them too? After all, for them, this is their FIRST 2013 season, as they didn't run indoors at all.

And what will Cain do?
IF they go for the "A" (meaning Uceny and Rowbury), should Cain try for it too?
Or will Salazar have her hang back, get in a good time (maybe 4:08 to 4:10), and prepare herself for a later "A" attempt....maybe at NY or Pre??

If she goes with the "stars", then I feel she WILL get a sub-4:05!!
If she doesn't, she might get her sub-4:10, but not by much!!

The pace, and Salazar's instructions, will determine her time!!

As for your last remark, that's true too!!
I don't care WHO is running......world elite or HS kid.....if you JOG the first 1000 of a 1500, you're not racing, you're.....JOGGING!!
That first 880 at USATF (2:55!!) was a frigging JOKE!!!

[aaronk]

Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Just realized that Drake and Penn are on the same weekend!
This almost certainly means Cain will NOT defend her HS mile win from last year, when she ran 4:39.28 with a 62.5 last lap, setting a Penn record!

I wonder if Wesley Frazier, Erin Finn, or one of the "other" high school star milers, will take a crack at Cain's record.....while she's busy taking on Uceny, Simpson, and Rowbury at Drake!!

Be interesting to see if anyone DOES break her record!!

[odelltrclan]

Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Personally, I seriously doubt any attempts at "A" Standard at Drake or Penn for distance / middle distance athletes. Unpredictable weather, early season. They want to approach a peak (which may be required for many to get the A) when it counts and that is not until June. This is a rust buster for sure. Something probably to gauge where they are at for training.

[az2004]

Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

the fields for the Thursday mile or 3k are not yet announced, but I know the guy responsible for seeding both events

id see frazier more in the 3k at penn than the mile

cain getting serious racing at des moines is good for her

I put my money on salazer doing the right thing

[Dutra5]

Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Drake typically doesn't go fast enough for a qualifier. Rowbury is typically a slow starter anyway so if Cain beat her I wouldn't be shocked if the race is in the 4:08 area. Uceny may be a different story.

[az2004]

Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Tried to send top mile entrants- no idea if it worked. Still think you should go to Moscow by boat if you can't fly. Official acceptance list for individuals high school events for Penn Relays will go up sometime on Monday on the Penn Relay site. Some of the ones on the list I tried to send you may opt for 3000 or dm- only a few in that catagory this year.


this is my source in charge of seeding mile and 3k at penn

check their official website pennpennrelYS.com


http://news.pennrelaysonline.com/regist ... EM_ID=1720

I WOULD not worry about what cain runs in des moines

it is prep I think for later races. there reference to me going to Moscow is about some medical problems I am currently facinfing my heart is beating oddly, and I need shock therapy to get it back into rhythm

here's some info on the heart shock I will be getting..

http://www.healthcentral.com/heart-dise ... /dangerous