Will Kirani James break Michael Johnson's 400m world record??

[Mocra]

43.18 is one the best world records out there so it would be simply amazing to see if someone in the near future could come close and hopefully even set a NEW WR. I thought Wariner was on his way back in 2007 when he was on fire.


We all know Kirani James is a tremendous talent, so If he stays healthy and motivated do you think he could be the man that will eventually break Michael Johnson's 400m world record?? Kirani James PB is 43.74 so he obviously has a long way to go but he's still very young and I don't think we have seen the best of him.

What do you think?? Does he have the potential to threaten that time in a few years?

[Atticus]

do you think he could be the man that will eventually break Michael Johnson's 400m world record??

In a word: no. KJ is indeed a prodigious talent and should get better, but the time is not yet ripe for a new WR. Bolt could have, but chose not to.

[beebee]

In a word: no. KJ is indeed a prodigious talent and should get better, but the time is not yet ripe for a new WR. Bolt could have, but chose not to.

No. Bolt has never cracked 45. Great talent, but please stop giving the guy things.

[DoubleRBar]

Yes, I believe Kirani can break the world mark. He has the talent, he's the right age, and his best years are ahead of him.

[Bruce Kritzler]

Needs to lower his 200 pr first, to have a chance.

[Tuariki]

Below are the annual progression times by age for James and Johnson.
At 21 James is at 43.74. At the age of 21 Johnson's best time was only 45.23.
Johnson did not reach that time until he was 25 years old.
It wasn't until he was 31 that Johnson ran his 43.18.
The progression chart suggests that James has a very good chance to get the WR in due course, perhaps sooner than later.
The most telling factor against James is that his top end speed based on 200m times is well short of Johnson - even at the same age.

Age - - - - James - - - - Johnson

32 - - - - - - - - - - - - 43.68
31 - - - - - - - - - - - - 43.18
30 - - - - - - - - - - - - 43.68
29 - - - - - - - - - - - - 43.75
28 - - - - - - - - - - - - 43.44
27 - - - - - - - - - - - - 43.39
26 - - - - - - - - - - - - 43.90
25 - - - - - - - - - - - - 43.65
24 - - - - - - - - - - - - 43.98
23 - - - - - - - - - - - - 44.17
22 - - - - - - - - - - - - 44.21
21 - - 2014 - 43.74
20 - - 2013 - 43.96 - 45.23
19 - - 2012 - 43.94
18 - - 2011 - 44.36
17 - - 2010 - 45.01
16 - - 2009 - 45.24
15 - - 2008 - 45.70
14 - - 2007 - 46.96

[ExCoastRanger]

The progression chart suggests that James has a very good chance to get the WR in due course, perhaps sooner than later....

Getting it "sooner than later" is the trick. Johnson had a long career for a sprinter, and chopped that nearly half second off his PR in his second-to-last year. Time is fleeting for most of these guys in more ways than one.

[bobguild76]

In a word, yes. But I think the key will be in how the Merritt/James rivalry unfolds. LM is on the backside (maybe not the downside, yet) of his career, but if he can stay sub 44 for another year or two, and if KJ stays focused, building year upon year as MJ did, the record could go. Yes, his 200 needs to improve, so that he can go out in 21 low and not be gassed.

Regarding Bolt, if he had developed into a 2/4 runner instead of going 100/200, he may well have gone sub 43, but then we would have been deprived of the 100/200 brilliance he has been since 2008.

Whoda thunk that MJ's 400 WR would last longer than his 200 WR?!

[Dixon]

Nope!

He doesn't come close to having the speed that MJ possessed. Johnson being the fastest 200m guy to ever run a WR 400m.

IF.....Bolt had wanted to put all his energies into the 200/400 instead of the 100/200 he would have been the one to break the record.

[Sasuke]

How can you be SO sure Bolt could have broken MJ's WR? He is just slightly faster over 200m (19.19 vs 19.32) so as far as we now he could have struggled to break 44, let alone 43. Being fast is not the only thing required.... Allyson Felix did great relays and is just faster than Marita Koch (21.69 vs 21.72) but she never broke 49.

[MDelano]

1. I thought it was common knowledge that MJ ran the 400 at the 1996 Games conservatively in order to save himself for the 200, and planned on going for the 400m record in Zurich later that year. But that plan fell apart after he injured himself after the 200. I have little doubt he would have gone sub-43 in 1996 with that kind of speed which was much faster than 1999.
You must take that into account when you draw conclusions about how he peaked so late in his career.

2. Butch ran only 0.10s slower than MJ, but his 200m pb was 20.46, and his 2nd fastest 400 is substantially slower at 43.93. There's always room for freakish once in a lifetime improvements in t&f.

[ATK]

1. I thought it was common knowledge that MJ ran the 400 at the 1996 Games conservatively in order to save himself for the 200, and planned on going for the 400m record in Zurich later that year. But that plan fell apart after he injured himself after the 200. I have little doubt he would have gone sub-43 in 1996 with that kind of speed which was much faster than 1999.
You must take that into account when you draw conclusions about how he peaked so late in his career.

2. Butch ran only 0.10s slower than MJ, but his 200m pb was 20.46, and his 2nd fastest 400 is substantially slower at 43.93. There's always room for freakish once in a lifetime improvements in t&f.

I agree with you on all point here.
Johnson was clearly in WR shape in 1995-1996 and specifically held back in Atlanta to ensure that he could complete the double.

Also regarding Kiranis 200m speed, how do we know what his true 200m speed is? If were basing it off his PR that would probably be a bad indicator as he has not run a 200 at the peak of his season. And like MDelano said, Butch was a pretty slow 200 guy, yet managed to grab that world record and hold it for 11 years.

I honestly think Kirani and Merrit are capable of it. Merrit doesn't seem to be showing any signs of regression and actually seems to still be getting faster.

[ZELLGADISS]

The answer is NO.
Kirani has a great talent, but his 200 is weak.
And no, no compare with banned Reynolds, it is not reference in my opinion.

And yes, you can to get sub44 without a great 200 but you can not get 43 low without a great 200.

So the limit for Kirani is almost same that Wariner, 43.4 or something like it, wonderful time by the other hand.

[Atticus]

No. Bolt has never cracked 45. Great talent, but please stop giving the guy things.

For the simplest reason of all - he's the greatest sprint talent of all time. Yes, he would have had to have (triple to-haves!) trained his sprint endurance a LOT more, but the talent was there for the training. Had the incentive been high enough, 42.xx was there. I just wish he had been tasked with anchoring an OG 4x4 when he was in peak condition. Just off his 200 training, I'm convinced we'd have seen a mid-42 run.

[beebee]

For the simplest reason of all - he's the greatest sprint talent of all time. Yes, he would have had to have (triple to-haves!) trained his sprint endurance a LOT more, but the talent was there for the training. Had the incentive been high enough, 42.xx was there. I just wish he had been tasked with anchoring an OG 4x4 when he was in peak condition. Just off his 200 training, I'm convinced we'd have seen a mid-42 run.

Pure speculation.

The original poster said "Bolt could break the 400 WR but chose not to".

Bolt has never broken 45.

Tell you what...MJ could have broken the 100 WR, but he took a pass on it.