Will Kirani James break Michael Johnson's 400m world record??

[26mi235]

Bolt's pattern of marks indicates that he is much better at the short sprints than the long ones. I think people discount too much what carrying all that mass around the track for 400 meters requires. Related to that, I think that all of the high-level longer sprint work would stress Bolt's body a lot and it would be harder for him to stay injury free. We have already seen what even the reduced work load of the 100 and 200 can do to such a fine sprinter. I think if he were after the 400 his window of opportunity would be very small, small in the sense that he would have to walk an extremely fine line between getting in enough work and getting injured doing so.

[ZELLGADISS]

Pure speculation.

The original poster said "Bolt could break the 400 WR but chose not to".

Bolt has never broken 45.

Tell you what...MJ could have broken the 100 WR, but he took a pass on it.

No, it is not same.
It is really stupid to compare it.

Bolt yes, had in his legs WR 400 but he has never the strenght mental for make it.
It is sure.

MJ hardly could to get sub10 although he trains 100m all his life

If MJ told that Bolt had big chance WR 400 is because is true

[beebee]

No, it is not same.
It is really stupid to compare it.

Bolt yes, had in his legs WR 400 but he has never the strenght mental for make it.
It is
MJ hardly could to get sub10 although he trains 100m all his life

If MJ told that Bolt had big chance WR 400 is because is true

MJ trained for the 100 all his life? And where did you pull that out from?
Nothing you've written is fact....hypotheticals, that's all.

Mr. James is young with great upside...and has the times....Merritt has a chance as well.

[Atticus]

Pure speculation.

Of course it is. 90% of what goes on here is.

The original poster said "Bolt could break the 400 WR but chose not to". Bolt has never broken 45.

Irrelevant. He never tried when he was 'good'.

Tell you what...MJ could have broken the 100 WR, but he took a pass on it.

Not the same. It's easier to transfer speed up than down.

[beebee]

Of course it is. 90% of what goes on here is.
Irrelevant. He never tried when he was 'good'.

Not the same. It's easier to transfer speed up than down.

Lol. So you can speculate but I can't? The way MJ demolished all timers Fredericks and Bolden in the second half of that Olympic 200 tells me that he could have ran a 9.8 if he chose to

"Not the same. It's easier to transfer speed up than down"
Really? Like the way AF, SRR, and Marita Koch failed to do?

[FrankS]

Interestingly. Michael Johnson talked about this last week during the BBC coverage of the Commonwealth Games.
He said that he believed that Kirani could break his record, and what Kirani would have to do to achieve that!

[ZELLGADISS]

MJ trained for the 100 all his life? And where did you pull that out from?
Nothing you've written is fact....hypotheticals, that's all.

Mr. James is young with great upside...and has the times....Merritt has a chance as well.

No, MJ did not have fast first 50m, if you dont have it, you can not get sub10 or 9.8 or something like it. Perhaps with a lot of training sub10 with luck, you think that a great runner like Carl Lewis (he ran few before that MJ), ran few times sub10, and the most in big events.

James 0% options for WR and Merrit less yet hehe.
When you gets sub44, after to get -0.1 seconds every time is very hard.
43.4 i see it like limit for Kirani, regards

If Kirani gets 43.3 in the future i will be very very surprised

[Tuariki]

James 0% options for WR and Merrit less yet hehe.
When you gets sub44, after to get -0.1 seconds every time is very hard.
43.4 i see it like limit for Kirani, regards

If Kirani gets 43.3 in the future i will be very very surprised

You say James' limit is 43.40 and that he will not be able to improve the 0.44 seconds he needs to get down to 43.30.

James is 21. His best time is currently 43.74. At the same age, Johnson's best time was 45.23. In case you haven't noticed, this is 1.49 seconds SLOWER than James.

So Zellgardis, can you please share with us your insightful logic that supports your theory that James cannot improve by 0.44 seconds but Johnson was able to improve by 2.05 seconds.

And by the way, what is the evidence that supports your claim that Johnson did not have a fast first 50m? Was this in the 400m? or in the 200m? or in the 100m? or all of those events? Do you actually have the evidence in terms of his actual times?

[Tuariki]

Interestingly. Michael Johnson talked about this last week during the BBC coverage of the Commonwealth Games.
He said that he believed that Kirani could break his record, and what Kirani would have to do to achieve that!

Obviously Johnson needs to consult with Zellgardis so that he can learn how to understand the event better and how to do an accurate assessment of an athlete's potential.

[ZELLGADISS]

You say James' limit is 43.40 and that he will not be able to improve the 0.44 seconds he needs to get down to 43.30.

James is 21. His best time is currently 43.74. At the same age, Johnson's best time was 45.23. In case you haven't noticed, this is 1.49 seconds SLOWER than James.

So Zellgardis, can you please share with us your insightful logic that supports your theory that James cannot improve by 0.44 seconds but Johnson was able to improve by 2.05 seconds.

And by the way, what is the evidence that supports your claim that Johnson did not have a fast first 50m? Was this in the 400m? or in the 200m? or in the 100m? or all of those events? Do you actually have the evidence in terms of his actual times?

heheh with your rare theory, Wariner gets with 23 years 43.4, so for you in the next years you were sure that he would get sub43, true?heheh

You can not compare with Johnson, because he peaked later, only it.
Your theory about that if you get big times being young in the future you will have a huge progression in adittion, it is not realistic.

Kirani is in my opinion very near of his limit, and it will be probably 43.4
0% options for WR.

Regards

[Atticus]

It's easier to transfer speed up than down"
Really? Like the way AF, SRR, and Marita Koch failed to do?

??!!
No more drinks for you! You just cited three women who DID transfer their speed superbly from the 200 up to the 400.

[beebee]

??!!
No more drinks for you! You just cited three women who DID transfer their speed superbly from the 200 up to the 400.

Koch moved down from the 200/400 to run 10.83
AF moved down from the 200/400 to run 10.85
SRR moved down from the 400 to run 10.97(10.89w)

[Tuariki]

heheh with your rare theory, Wariner gets with 23 years 43.4, so for you in the next years you were sure that he would get sub43, true?heheh

You can not compare with Johnson, because he peaked later, only it.
Your theory about that if you get big times being young in the future you will have a huge progression in adittion, it is not realistic.

Kirani is in my opinion very near of his limit, and it will be probably 43.4
0% options for WR.

Regards

As Atticus says most of what we all write about is pure speculation. And that, of course, is our right to hold whatever speculative opinion we want.

You have speculated that James is close to his limit. Perhaps the next 10 years will prove you are correct. However, you refuse to answer my question - a question that I believe is perfectly fair and reasonable. You have stated that:

"You can not compare with Johnson, because he peaked later, only it." What is the logic that supports your theory that James cannot peak later? Why was Johnson able to peak later?

You then stated that:

"Your theory about that if you get big times being young in the future you will have a huge progression in adittion, it is not realistic."

I have never proposed such a theory. What I have asked you is that you justify YOUR theory that it is not possible for James to improve in the future but you appear to claim that only Johnson could make huge improvements in later years.

[Tuariki]

Koch moved down from the 200/400 to run 10.83
AF moved down from the 200/400 to run 10.85
SRR moved down from the 400 to run 10.97(10.89w)

The IAAF website suggests you may be wrong about Felix and Richards-Ross. It appears they both were running the 100m a year or two before they ran the 400m

[Dixon]

How can you be SO sure Bolt could have broken MJ's WR? He is just slightly faster over 200m (19.19 vs 19.32) so as far as we now he could have struggled to break 44, let alone 43. Being fast is not the only thing required.... Allyson Felix did great relays and is just faster than Marita Koch (21.69 vs 21.72) but she never broke 49.

Bolt was running 45.2 as a teenager, imagine him at Baylor for 4 years.

Bolt has the better stride, he has more long speed, the only thing he didn't have was that "need" to excell in the 400m. If....he'd wanted to rule that event he would have, I have no doubts at all.

Bolt has ran sub 19.60 a ton of times while MJ only had his 19.32, it's real obvious Bolt is a far superrior 200m man.