Will Kirani James break Michael Johnson's 400m world record??

[nbonaddio]

James is 21. His best time is currently 43.74. At the same age, Johnson's best time was 45.23. In case you haven't noticed, this is 1.49 seconds SLOWER than James.

It's not that simple, as not everyone has the same maturation levels. You could just as easily point to what Obea Moore was running at 14 and compare it to what MJ was running; clearly that didn't pan out.

For the record, I certainly think it's possible, but I don't think your logic here is any better than his that it WON'T happen.

[spammer]

James should have Michael Johnson coach him, then he will break the record. Johnson is good at that stuff.

[ATK]

James should have Michael Johnson coach him, then he will break the record. Johnson is good at that stuff.

Who has Johnson coached to a WR. Running is one thing, coaching is another.

[spammer]

James needs to improve by 6 tenths of a second. Johnson improved Paula Radcliffe by a lot more than 6 tenths. If the price is right, I'm sure James could atleast arrange a visit to his high performance center and have Johnson break down his tape. That would atleast be a good start.

[mal]

MJ never approached his best in the 400. He ran it like a spare event.

So I don't think the WR is the outer range because MJ has it and he is so talented. He should have run 42 something.

So yes I think KJ has a shot. He should be able to run 43 flat.

[JumboElliott]

PR (and age at the time) for the top ten 400m runners in history

1. Michael Johnson 43.18 (31)
2. Harry Reynolds 43.29 (24)
3. Jeremy Wariner 43.45 (23)
4. Quincy Watts 43.50 (22)
5. Lashawn Merritt 43.74 (26)
5. Kirani James 43.74 (21)
7. Danny Everett 43.81 (25)
8. Lee Evans 43.86A (21)
9. Steve Lewis 43.87 (19)
10. Larry James 43.97A (20)

Mean age at the time of PR 23.2

Median age at time of PR 22.5

History says that he has a pretty small window of time to do it. The 400 is a young man's event.

[fourjz]

Simply,I don't believe Kirani is fast enough to break the WR.He does'nt have that pure speed that MJ posessed.

[distancerunningwizard]

You can't compare Johnson and James.Michael had blazing 200 speed.Some runners develope earlyand peak..but others like Johnson peak later in life.

[GHM]

Track only:
I am betting at this point men 800m has the highest chance to be broken.
Men 1500m is the next followed by 400m and my reason is the competition.

Women 5000m may be broken by the end of Summer.

[ATK]

James needs to improve by 6 tenths of a second. Johnson improved Paula Radcliffe by a lot more than 6 tenths. If the price is right, I'm sure James could atleast arrange a visit to his high performance center and have Johnson break down his tape. That would atleast be a good start.

Huh?

Since when was Johnson Radcliffe's coach?
Since when was Johnson any high profile pro track athlete's coach?

You said James should have MJ be his coach because he is good that stuff. What examples do you have of MJ coaching athletes to world records?

[Tuariki]

It's not that simple, as not everyone has the same maturation levels. You could just as easily point to what Obea Moore was running at 14 and compare it to what MJ was running; clearly that didn't pan out.

For the record, I certainly think it's possible, but I don't think your logic here is any better than his that it WON'T happen.

I have never said it would happen. I am just challenging Zellgardis' logic in his saying that it will not happen. He may get there; he may not. I have no idea. However, for Zellgardis to emphatically state James has 0% chance to break the WR when he is already 1:49 seconds faster than Johnson at the same age is nonsensical and illogical. The truth as to how well James does compared to Johnson won't be know for another 10 years.

[Tuariki]

PR (and age at the time) for the top ten 400m runners in history

1. Michael Johnson 43.18 (31)
2. Harry Reynolds 43.29 (24)
3. Jeremy Wariner 43.45 (23)
4. Quincy Watts 43.50 (22)
5. Lashawn Merritt 43.74 (26)
5. Kirani James 43.74 (21)
7. Danny Everett 43.81 (25)
8. Lee Evans 43.86A (21)
9. Steve Lewis 43.87 (19)
10. Larry James 43.97A (20)

Mean age at the time of PR 23.2

Median age at time of PR 22.5

History says that he has a pretty small window of time to do it. The 400 is a young man's event.

Only one tiny wee problem - the WR holder blows that theory to hell and back

[ZELLGADISS]

As Atticus says most of what we all write about is pure speculation. And that, of course, is our right to hold whatever speculative opinion we want.

You have speculated that James is close to his limit. Perhaps the next 10 years will prove you are correct. However, you refuse to answer my question - a question that I believe is perfectly fair and reasonable. You have stated that:

"You can not compare with Johnson, because he peaked later, only it." What is the logic that supports your theory that James cannot peak later? Why was Johnson able to peak later?

You then stated that:

"Your theory about that if you get big times being young in the future you will have a huge progression in adittion, it is not realistic."

I have never proposed such a theory. What I have asked you is that you justify YOUR theory that it is not possible for James to improve in the future but you appear to claim that only Johnson could make huge improvements in later years.

I NEVER told that James will not improve.
I told that James will not get WR and will get probably amazing time, around 43.4, is it bad for you? hehehe
Steve Lewis got 43.87 with 19 years? with your theory he would have 42 low, true? hehe

Sorry, but no, i dont see to Kirani getting WR.
And if for you to tell that will improve since 43.74 to 43.4 is few, wow many runners would hope it, when a lot of dont improve nothing or very few when they get sub44

Regards

[ZELLGADISS]

I have never said it would happen. I am just challenging Zellgardis' logic in his saying that it will not happen. He may get there; he may not. I have no idea. However, for Zellgardis to emphatically state James has 0% chance to break the WR when he is already 1:49 seconds faster than Johnson at the same age is nonsensical and illogical. The truth as to how well James does compared to Johnson won't be know for another 10 years.

And Steve Lewis with 19 years, umm 2 seconds faster than Johnson or faster yet?im not sure, and? The age does mean nothing, for you is all.

When you get amazing times yet, it never means that you will get a lot of better times in the future, it is probably that your peak is near.

[Tuariki]

Simply,I don't believe Kirani is fast enough to break the WR.He does'nt have that pure speed that MJ posessed.

I agree that speed appears to be James' weak point at the moment. At age 21 James best 200m is 20.41 compared to MJ's 20.07 at the same age. To break the WR I believe James needs to be able to run the 200m in at least 19.6