Will Kirani James break Michael Johnson's 400m world record??

[Per Andersen]

At least 19.6? Even Johnson only ran faster than that once. Only 4 men in history have run sub 19.6. But you might be right! It's just crazy.

[ZELLGADISS]

I agree that speed appears to be James' weak point at the moment. At age 21 James best 200m is 20.41 compared to MJ's 20.07 at the same age. To break the WR I believe James needs to be able to run the 200m in at least 19.6

Heheheeh then if you think that Kirani only would get WR 400 with 19.6 in 200, i can tell you 100% that Kirani will never get 19.6 in 200m.
If he gets 20.0-20.1 it will be really great

[Tuariki]

So tell us all your reasons and your theories why Kirani James will never get down to 19.6

[Sasuke]

So tell us all your reasons and your theories why Kirani James will never get down to 19.6

It's true he is only 22, but his personal best is only 20.41 from 2011; this year he ran 200m twice with slow times around 20.60 even though there were headwinds but he was already in 44 mid (at least) shape so I would say he could run 20 low in great conditions while in top shape. And sincerely I don't think he can lower 0.4 in a 200m. Bolt reached his top speed at 23 and Blake at 21... I don't say he won't improve but a DIFFICULT goal for him would be going sub 20, let alone 19.6.

[ATK]

Tuariki your challenging ZELLGADISS' logic that it wont happen with logic that doesn't seem to be much better.

Comparing saying that Kirani will improve in the same fashion as MJ did based on age makes no sense. What if you compare James to Butch, Wariner Watts etc? Do the times line up based on age? Merrirt just ran 43.74 at age 27 while James did it at 21.

MJ is probably the oddball in the 400m. I wouldn't use him as the standard for determining another athletes progression.

Also, You said that he would need at least sub 19.6 to break the WR. So to run 43.17, he would need to run 19.59. This is flawed as well.
Butch's PR is .11 from the WR with a 200m PR .87 slower than sub 19.6
Wariner is .27 from the WR with a 200m PR .60 slower than sub 19.6
Watts is .32 from the WR with a 200m PR .91 slower than sub 19.6

etc...

[spammer]

Huh?

Since when was Johnson Radcliffe's coach?
Since when was Johnson any high profile pro track athlete's coach?

You said James should have MJ be his coach because he is good that stuff. What examples do you have of MJ coaching athletes to world records?

You got me, but I would guess that not many people have coached 2 athletes to world records in the same event.

[JumboElliott]

Only one tiny wee problem - the WR holder blows that theory to hell and back

The world record holder in this case is a huge outlier. He was almost 32 when he set his record. The last time someone over 30 who isn't named Michael Johnson was the number one ranked 400m runner in the world was Mike Larrabee in 1964.

Also, it's worth noting that Michael Johnson never singularly focused on the 400 until near the end of his career. He was thought of as a 200 runner who also ran the 400 until 1999, when he broke the record in Seville.

[Atticus]

It is futile to compare ANY two athletes (not even the Borlee twins!). My hunch that he won't do it is entirely based on how good he got at so young. I don't see it from him (or LM), but, of course, I would love to proven wrong!

[tgs3]

Also, it's worth noting that Michael Johnson never singularly focused on the 400 until near the end of his career. He was thought of as a 200 runner who also ran the 400 until 1999, when he broke the record in Seville.

Coming into 1999, Johnson had an Olympic gold, 3 WC golds and had been #1 ranked in the 400 8 times. His resume in the 200, while also excellent, was definitely not up to those standards. To say he was a 200 runner that only dabbled in the 400 is just wrong.

[JumboElliott]

Okay, 1999 might be a little early. Perhaps 1996 or 1997 is where I should have cut it off. His first World Championship and his first two world records were in the 200.

Also, using the IAAF scoring tables, 19.32 > 43.18

[gh]

After the '90 NCAA, where MJ won the 200 in a pedestrian 20.31, but ran the second- and third-fastest relay legs in NCAA history, 43.5 and 43.7, I know which event I thought was his wheelhouse!

[tgs3]

Okay, 1999 might be a little early. Perhaps 1996 or 1997 is where I should have cut it off. His first World Championship and his first two world records were in the 200.

Entering 1996, Johnson had 9 of the 20 fastest 400m times. He "only" had 5 of the top 20 200m times.

[Tuariki]

In none of my postings have I said that James will break the WR, run 43.3 or 43.4 or 19.6.
I have no idea what James will eventually finish up with as a lifetime best. It may be he has already reached them. Logic suggests he probably hasn't.

What I have done is challenged Zellgadiss to back up his claims with his reasoning that James will 100% definitely not run 43.3 and 19.6. I have no problem in accepting Zellgadiss' reasoning as being valid speculation, even if I may disagree with it. Hell, I might even end up agreeing.

[tandfman]

Kirani James says he can go faster than he's gone thus far. Story linked on front page.

[Tuariki]

Maybe he was reading this thread