El Guerrouj 5000m?

[Guest]

I have heard that El Guerrouj is having a go at a fast 5km sometime in June. Is this true? Does anyone know when and where?
And do you think he will get anywhere near Gebs mark. His 7.23 3km suggests pretty good potential and did mid 13.40's at world juniors when he was 19 before he really got into it.
What do you think?

[Guest]

Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

He could probably put up an outstanding time once he's raced the distance a few times, but I don't know if he's capable of 12:40 - 12:45. If real testing of all competitors year round becomes a reality, I'm not sure we'll see anything that fast for awhile. Look at the drop in times after EPO testing was first announced. Then look at how they creeped back down a bit as the test's limits were revealed.

[jake the snake]

Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

i'm excited to see him move up in distance and run the 5000 at this point in his career. i don't think he can break the world record but i think he's capable of running around 12:50 this season.

[Guest]

Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

What can i say? This guy is incredible! He is an insane runner.

[carfu]

Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

El Guerrouj will have a go at 5000m in Ostrava (Czech Republic) on June 12th.

[trackstar]

Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Damn, I was hoping it would be Oslo, especially since they aren't having the Dream Mile this year. I'm going to be there, and mighty annoyed that I probably won't get to see him.

[gh]

Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Oslo will have a kick-ass 5K field, Ostrava won't, which is why you can expect El G to test the waters in the lesser meet. If he's successful, then perhaps he'll make good on his announced plans to double at the Worlds. We here at T&FN remain skeptical.

[Guest]

Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

He won't double. There's no way he'd take the chance. He's relatively untested at 5 - though he probably could knock off a sub-13 and I think in the right race he will. But as good as he is, to go through the rounds in both would be unrealistic if he is to have hope in winning either. I'd wager that he'll stick to only the 15 at the worlds.

[gh]

Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

The El G schedule, as we were told by one good source:

<<His lone invitational 5K will be in Ostrava on June 12; then, he is likely to run a 1500 in Paris (July 4) and a mile in Zürich (August 15). >>

If he does essay a Paris double, this would be his schedule:
8/23--1500h
8/25--1500sf
8/27--1500f
8/28--5000h
8/31--5000f

The key is obviously that 5K heat on 8/28. With the last WC being at "altitude" and the two before that in hot-weather cities (and the one before that in a place where it was unseasonably warm) it's tough to predict what it will take to get out of the heats. Nonetheless, here's what the slowest qualifier ran in recent Worlds:

01--13:36
99--13:37
97--13:31
95--13:32

I think it's safe to guess that you'll have to come close to breaking 13:30 to make the final.

[Guest]

Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

reports are that Ostrava "non kick-ass field" will feature current IAAF number one Benjamin Limo, and his Kenyan colleagues, double Olympic silver medallist Paul Bitok, and world 10,000m champion, Charles Kamathi. Another top Kenyan, the steeplechase number one Stephen Cherono is in the field, and Ethiopia will be represented by Olympic Champion Million Wolde.

[gh]

Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Sorry--i'm just spoiled after too many years of exposure to the sport at its highest levels, like Zürich '97, where 6th place went in 12:56. That's "kicking ass." Ostrava will be a fine international--but pedestrian by Golden League standards--field.

[Guest]

Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

>The El G schedule, as we were told by one good
>source:

If he does essay a Paris
>double, this would be his
>schedule:
8/23--1500h
8/25--1500sf
8/27--1500f\n>8/28--5000h
8/31--5000f

The key is obviously
>that 5K heat on 8/28. With the last WC being at
>"altitude" and the two before that in
>hot-weather cities (and the one before that in a
>place where it was unseasonably warm) it's tough
>to predict what it will take to get out of the
>heats. Nonetheless, here's what the slowest
>qualifier ran in recent
>Worlds:

01--13:36
99--13:37
97--13:31
95--13
>32

I think it's safe to guess that you'll have
>to come close to breaking 13:30 to make the
>final.

Well, given that schedule maybe he will double. As long as the 15 final is done before the 5 heats what does he have to lose? All he would have to do in the 5 heat would be to stay in contact until the last 400 and let it go - obviously a "slow" tactical race would be ideal for him. Though the Kenyan's probably wouldn't allow a slow race to happen.

If he made it though the prelim he would have plenty of time to get ready for the final. It would be a fun race to watch - if he was in the field the others would be trying every trick in the book to kill him off before the last 800m.

[gh]

Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

You can bet the Kenyans would be thinking team-tactics against him. My guess on what they might do in the pace department is get all hinky and throw in some nasty surges. We know El G can run fast laps time after time in metronomic fashion, but what happens if somebody pulls an Ngugi?

Remember him at the '88 Olympics in Seoul where after the field had run sometehing like a couple of 65-second laps he jumped up from the back of the pack and threw in something in the 57-58 range. Needless to say, that changed the complexion of that race ina big hurry!

[trackstar]

Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

>but what happens if somebody pulls an
>Ngugi?

Or what if somebody pulls an Ngeny? I dispute the idea that all he has to do is trail the leaders and then "let it go in the last 400." He can be outkicked. Failure to take the pace out hard was precisely what cost him in Sydney. I'd say that strategy is far more likely to defeat El G than trying to bust him with a hard pace.

[Guest]

Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

There's a huge difference between the rabbitted time trial races, and the more tactical nature of OG/WC where rounds exist and paces far more variable.

In the timed events, El G basically knows the rabbit splits, and can just follow at his leisure.

In the OG/WC stuff, he's at the mercy of what the rest of the field has in store, particularly variations in tempo.

Put Geb and El G in a 5k race, and I'd really wonder the tactics we'd see, surely Geb would try to run away from him, wanting something well below 13 pace.