Rita Jeptoo tests positive before Chicago!

[26mi235]

The drop in times corresponds with Geb getting things right and pushing the boundary lower. To me it is believable that Geb did it 'unassisted' because he had such a superb background/capabilities. Those that followed him now had a very difficult task. They had to work to get better than one of the very best distance runners of all time, and one who was using all of the easy elements left available -- very flat courses with a lot of pacing assistance and not too much of a race to worry about (usually one not four or five).

Keeping up and getting ahead of the Geb might have required pulling out every stop, including some that might not be legit with some of the runners.

[Hedgecock]

I don't get it. How can they detect use of EPO from a urine sample?
I thought that testing authorities needed a blood test to determine that.

[John G]

I don't buy Rosa's assertion that doping started in Kenya in the last 5-7 years. The marathon times being run now are on a par with the 5000 and 10000m times the previous generation started dropping in the mid-90s. The new generation have chosen road racing over track because that's where the money is. There are more of them because more young Kenyans have realised what financial opportunities exist. They are not reaching higher levels of performance than their predecessors - 2:03 and 2:04 marathons are not better than the 12:3x and 12:4x 5000s and 26:2x and 26:3x 10000s we were seeing in the 90s. So , I'd argue that either they were doping in the 90s and still are or they weren't back in the day and still aren't. Of course, someone like Rosa, who coached Tergat might want to argue that Tergat was such a talent that he could achieve a level of performance clean that the new generation can't without PEDs.

Picking up 26mi265's point, I don't think there is any reason to believe Geb was more or less likely to have been doping than Tergat and Komen. They all started smashing pbs and WRs at the same time. Whether that was due to PEDs or advances in training, I have no first-hand knowledge but either way I see no reason to believe there wasn't a level playing field. Regarding the advance in the marathon times, I think Tergat move to the distance and his WR will have had as much of an impact on the younger Kenyans as Geb had. The next generation will have decided "We need to do what Tergat has been doing" in order to match and better his times.

[26mi235]

I have a hard time believing that there are several dozen new guys that are as good or better than Geb. One or two (Sammy, ..) maybe, a Tergat, yes; but are there really twenty of them.

In addition, after somewhat catching up the Americans etc., are not much behind this latest wave on the roads, despite the fact that they are catching up on the track. Are those that race primarily on the track more European oriented and tested more often outside of competition and with blood tests>

[Blues]

I don't get it. How can they detect use of EPO from a urine sample?
I thought that testing authorities needed a blood test to determine that.

Urine tests work but I think the EPO is usually only detectable in urine for a few days after administration. Jeptoo tested positive in an out of comp test, so possibly the test was unexpected and done within several days of administration of the drug.

http://www.maiiadiagnostics.com/research/epo_doping_test.htm

https://wada-main-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/resources/files/05a1jc-carlsson.pdf

[gh]

The drop in times corresponds with Geb getting things right and pushing the boundary lower. To me it is believable that Geb did it 'unassisted' because he had such a superb background/capabilities. ...

devil's advocate question: what if if his "superb background/capabilities" were enhanced to begin with?

[John G]

I have a hard time believing that there are several dozen new guys that are as good or better than Geb. One or two (Sammy, ..) maybe, a Tergat, yes; but are there really twenty of them.

In addition, after somewhat catching up the Americans etc., are not much behind this latest wave on the roads, despite the fact that they are catching up on the track. Are those that race primarily on the track more European oriented and tested more often outside of competition and with blood tests>

There are only 4 guys who have run faster than Geb over the Marathon.

Geb over a marathon however, was not even close to the athlete he was at his peak running on the track. Despite what the IAAF scoring table suggest, I don't believe the new Marathon record compares to Bekele and Geb's track WRs. My hunch is that the 2:03 and 2:04 marathon runners are athletes who, had they been born in the 90s would have been running 26:30 or 26:40 for 10,000 on the track. There are more 2:04 Marathoners today than 26:40 10000m runners back in the 90s because there is more money and more opportunity to race on the roads today than on the track 20 years ago.

Put it another way: the standard of performance amongst the top Kenyan runners has not changed - it just manifests itself in different events. The number of great performances have increased but that's simply more of them out there training now. Either way I don't see doping as a variable in the equation - they are no more or likely to be doping now versus then.

[26mi235]

devil's advocate question: what if if his "superb background/capabilities" were enhanced to begin with?

He was better than everyone else - was he doing it by being the only top guy doping? He was the best from very early on and continues to be extremely good (but significantly compromised by asthma) at a 'ripe old age'. So, unless he was unusual through the 90s on the PEDs front, he would still be semi-expected to be at the top in the era where he moved to the marathon, but those times from 2006-2008 are not the very top, and while not many are actually faster, a lot are in exactly the same ballpark.

[Hedgecock]

Some of us have veered off topic here, guys. Surely this is a thread about Jeptoo testing positive for EPO, and the 2014 WMM Award for women being shelved because of that?
How did we get into an entirely separate discussion comparing Geb with Tergat and Bekele and other East Africans over the marathon distance?

[John G]

Quite right hedge clock - you'll find we tend to go off at tangents. (This particular tangent came in response to Jeptoo's agent, Rosa claiming that doping in Kenya only started 5 to 7 years ago. 26mi235 thought that was a plausible claim and speculated that it was an attempt by Kenyan runners to catch up with new standards set by Geb over the marathon. I won't bore you again with my alternative view).

[spammer]

2 year ban for Jeptoo

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/the-turnstile/marathon-champ-rita-jeptoo-receives-two-year-ban-for-positive-drug-test-141220783.html

[26mi235]

Shalane Flanagan is quoted as saying that the benefits from doping extend for longer than two years and so the bans should be longer (I think she wants lifetime bans). It is true that EPO benefits extend that long. Yes, you can train harder, but how long would that effect really last. It is not like some possible effect for steroids, from which the implication has been drawn and for which, from what I have seen, there is no definitive evidence at all [and for those thinking that the case of Gatlin is a data point of interest, I would say that it is a data point that shows how completely untrue it is - in the earlier years where the effect was greatest, his results were the poorest, only four years later was he really back topping his earlier marks, which by then were 8-10 years gone and that is a bit beyond the major effects, and certainly at a point where the effects would be below those when the duration since doping were larger, if they did exist at any measurable level.]

[gh]

IAAF wants her penalty doubled to 4 years (see front page).