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2015 NCAA & USA Womens Heptathlon/Multis

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  • olorin
    replied
    Originally posted by olorin View Post
    Interesting observation but you forgot the HJ (Chapman, Day and Williams).
    Profit would enter this summary under the "dark-dark horse category".
    Another 'old timer' that can enter the dark-dark horse category is Chantae McMillan that just score 6112 in Talence.
    Last edited by olorin; 04-04-2016, 12:31 PM.

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  • olorin
    replied
    Originally posted by tgs3 View Post
    If there was any kind of universal theme throughout the analysis it is that you think most of the athletes should/could be able to improve their LJ and that they are poor throwers.
    Interesting observation but you forgot the HJ (Chapman, Day and Williams).
    Looking at their PBs - all six athletes are very good in the running events with the one exception of Williams in the 800 (that I probably should have mention). In contrast three of them (Williams, Bougard and Miller) are horrible throwers. Williams is the only 6.50+ LJ, Bougard has a PB of 6.46 bet as I mentioned she didn't approach it last season and the rest have PBs that are ~6.20 which below par for such fast women.
    Another issue is that the jumps are the easiest place to improve by big chunks. Improving from 6.20 to 6.50 is worth almost 100 points. This is equivalent to improving by 0.7 in the 100h, a full second in the 200 and 7 second in the 800, 1.5 meter in the SP and 5m in the JT. So obviously when I need to choose one event to improve and the LJ is below par then this is an obvious choice.

    Originally posted by tgs3 View Post
    Anyone know what's going on with Kiani Profit? She look promising in 2013 and 2014, but didn't do much in her only appearance in 2015. I'd also put Chantae McMillan as a dark horse for 2016. After not really doing anything since London 2012, she had a decent (6112) score in Talence to end the year. 2016 is most likely way too early for her, but I'm also curious what Alissa Brooks-Johnson can do next year after winning the Pac 12 as a teenager.
    Profit competed both indoor and outdoor and was well below her ususal form. The problem with Profit (and other Heptathletes) that underperform last year is that she don't just need to get back to her best but also improve it by 200-300 points in order to qualify for Rio. She would enter this summary under the "dark-dark horse category".
    As for ABJ she along with the likes of Nikki Larch-Miller and Taliyah brooks are all great talents for the future. Maybe one of them will be able to break through in the next Olympic cycle.

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  • tgs3
    replied
    Nice analysis, Olorin!

    If there was any kind of universal theme throughout the analysis it is that you think most of the athletes should/could be able to improve their LJ and that they are poor throwers.

    Anyone know what's going on with Kiani Profit? She look promising in 2013 and 2014, but didn't do much in her only appearance in 2015. I'd also put Chantae McMillan as a dark horse for 2016. After not really doing anything since London 2012, she had a decent (6112) score in Talence to end the year. 2016 is most likely way too early for her, but I'm also curious what Alissa Brooks-Johnson can do next year after winning the Pac 12 as a teenager.

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  • Atticus
    replied
    Originally posted by olorin View Post
    As the athletics year is basically over it is time to summarize this thread.
    Nice! I hope we can expect the Dec analysis soon!

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  • olorin
    replied
    The dark horse

    6. Quintunja Chapman - 2015 saw many athletes that improved their Heptathlon PB by hundreds of points. Gochenour (PB 5512 in 2014) Lettow (5807), Hemann (5581) and Herauf (5490) have all broken for the first time the 6000 points barrier, but in my opinion are too far back to pose a threat next year. The only exception for the new 6000+ club is Quintunja Chapman. This is not only because she is the only one that reach ~6150 points (100 points better than Gouchnour and company) but also because Chapman competes in the Heptathlon only for two years. In these two years she was able to break her PBs across the board. Her improvement in the throws events in is especially impressive. From throwing in the same level as Bougard and Williams she moved to be one of the best in the US with PBs of 14.56 & 43.66. As pointed out 2015 was a breakthrough year for Chapman. The first signs were already in the winter when she finished 6th in iNCAA. Yet, the real breakthrough came in her home Heptathlon (in Athens GA) when she broke six PBs and score 6146 points. She backed this result at the NCAA final winning Bronze and breaking her PB by 1 point. Like her teammate Williams she decided not to participate in USATF.
    Outlook 2016 – Last year was Chapman’s last year in the college and turning pro is always a difficult switch for American athletes. Add to this the fierce competition in the Heptathlon and smart money will not gamble on Chapman. However, she is such a great unknown that I wouldn’t be surprise is she will improve by ~300 points and find herself on the plane to Rio.
    Needs to improve – Chapman nemesis event is the high jump. Her PB is 1.66 which is simply not good enough to compete in the highest level. If she will improve by 10cm (still modest in Heptathlon terms) she will almost achieve half on the improvement needed for next year.
    Last edited by olorin; 09-22-2015, 03:02 PM.

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  • olorin
    replied
    Tier 2 – the favourites for the last place

    3. Kendall Williams – In 2014 Williams looked like she is about the takeover as American No. 3 spot. She improved her PB and sum of PBs by ~500 points and won both iNCAA & NCAA. This winter seems like a continuation of 2014 as Williams won the Pentathlon while establishing herself as a 6.50 long jumper. It all went wrong in the first outdoor competition at the end of March throwing the Javelin. After breaking her PB by more than six meters in 2014 (to 38.39) I was expecting a 40+ throw. Instead Williams fail to break her PB and then withdraw from her home Heptathlon. A month later she failed to HJ in Drake relay Heptathlon and got the qualification mark to the NCAA only in SEC with unimpressive performance. Then, just when it started to be doubtful whether she will win even medal in the NCAA she came back winning the Silver (behind Akela Jones wonderful performance) with a new PB of 6200+. But even this performance was not an eye opener with a good (windy) 200 as the only breakthrough.
    2016 outlook – with no further injuries Williams should return to a fast pace of improvement, close the gap to Bougard and resume this wonderful duel for the iNCAA and the last place to Rio. The reason that I regard Williams as slightly favourite is because she can red-shirt in the summer and concentrate on the trials whereas Bougard will have to come after a long NCAA season.
    Need to improve – throws are the simple answer, but the high jump is probably just as important as she deteriorated in 2015 from 1.88 to low 1.8x for a loss of ~60 points.

    4. Erica Bougard – with the breakthrough of Nwaba and the exploits of Williams Bougard left largely unnoticed. However, in the last two years she has become a real hope for the future. Bougard is already a world level in the 100h (12.99), HJ (1.88), 200 (23.48), 800 (2:08.39) and a good LJ (6.46). Her Achilles hill like many of the young American multi-eventer is the throws when her PBs are well below par. In 2015 she had a seesaw season. She started the indoor season with a large improvement in both the 60h and the HJ, then she under perform in the iNCAA and lost to Williams, she then had a breakthrough performance scoring 6,250 in SEC including two very weak performances in the throwing events even compare to her very low standard. Then she had a relatively poor competition in the NCAA when she didn’t medal only to bounce back in the USATF when she broke her PB again and gain the third ticket to Beijing after a close battle with Miller. In the world championship itself like all American multi-eventer that are not Eaton she underperformed throughout and eventually withdraws.
    2016 outlook – Bougard already red-shirted an outdoor season so she will have to compete in the gruelling NCAA season. In the last two WC she was able to gain the third ticket in the American team but if Williams will red-shirt it will be a very hard task.
    Needs to improve – again the throws are the obvious choice, but additionally she needs to improve the LJ. This year her outdoor best is only 6.20 which is unacceptable for someone as fast as Bougard. If she can improve to ~6.70 (BTE’s PB which her PBs in the 100h and the 200 are similar to Bougard) then she will be a threat to the medals even without improving her throws.

    5. Heather Miller – at the age of 28 Miller is my sentimental choice for the third ticket. Miller is not as good as Bougard and Williams in the non-throwing event but slightly better in the JT (PB of 41.23). But it is not the throwing ability that allows Miller to remain close to the two other athletes, but rather her ability to perform very close to her full potential. While Williams and Bougard Heptathlon PB is roughly 200 points behind their sum of PBs, in the last four years Miller is capable to score only ~100 points behind her sum of PBs giving her a fighting chance against her more talented competitors. In both 2013 and 2015 Miller just failed short of making the team to the WC. In Des Moines 2013 she finished in fifth place with 5945 points only 45 points behind Bougard that finished third. Since then Bougard improved her results by close to 200 points but in 2015 Miller was even closer setting a PB of 6274 points only 10 points behind Bougard. She finished the year with relatively high note winning a Silver in Pan Am games not far from her PB.
    2006 outlook – It hard to “demand” from a 28 old athlete that is improving in the pace of a teenager in the last four years to continue to improve for another year. But this is what Miller has to do if she wants to compete with Bougard and Williams. Realistically, I think that fifth is the best she can achieve but hopefully she will surprise everyone break her PB by 150 points and make it to the team.
    Needs to improve – in 2012 Miller jumped 6.26, since then she improved her 100h PB by 0.65 and her 200 PB by 1.02 second. Yet, her best in the LJ remains unchanged. An improvement to ~6.50 will do wonders for her chances.
    Last edited by olorin; 09-22-2015, 02:58 PM.

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  • olorin
    replied
    Tier 1 – international level

    1. Barbara Nwaba – the only American that made it this year to the international level had a magical last two years. In 2013 at the age of 24 she had a PB of 5986 with a modest sum of PBs of 6298. Since then she improved her Heptathlon PB by more than 500 points to 6,500 while her sum of PBs follow suit with an improvement of 400 points to 6,694 points. In 2015 Nwaba set a new PB in six of the seven events in the Heptathlon, won for the first time the USATF and establish herself as an outside shot for a medal in the WC. This dream was shattered few second after the start of the Heptathlon in the WC when she stumbled and fell over the first hurdle. To her credit she continued to compete and broke two of her PBs. Unlike most American multi-eventer Nwaba has a decent throws (14.64 & 46.69) and is good in most other five events. Her main problem is that she is not brilliant in any of the Heptathlon’s seven events and it is hard to on the top without being brilliant in at least one-two events.
    Outlook 2016 – Nwaba is the most likely candidate to book a ticket to the plane to Rio. The big question is whether she can continue with her quick pace of improvement of the last two years (~200 points) and become a strong candidate for a medal.
    Needs to improve – Nwaba needs to continue with the fast improvement (~250 points) for another year in order to make it to the top level. The long jump 6.23 is relatively weak and an improvement of 30cm will do wonders for her medal chances.

    2. Sharon Day-Monroe – while Nwaba is a new member in the international level Day is trying to hang on. This year she celebrated her 30th birthday but on the athletic field she had little to celebrate. Since her failure to win a medal in Moscow Day seems to be on the down slope. In the past two years she failed to break the 6,500 points and manage to improve her PB only in two events (100h & SP). 2015 marked the year that Day lost her dominance in the US scene finishing behind Nwaba in the USATF. Her WC performance although the best of the three American was well below par and finished well outside the top ten.
    Outlook 2016 – it is doubtful whether Day, at the age of 31, can return to her very best. But even in her current form (probably 64xx high) she should be able to qualify for Rio. Yet, her chances are more dependants in the improvement of her younger competitors rather than her own ability.
    Needs to improve – It is doubtful whether Day will be able to break new ground at the age of 31, so I will not wish for 6.50 long jump. The place that she can and should improve is the HJ. From Being a 1.95 jumper, Day only managed 1.83 indoor and pathetic 1.78 outdoor. A return 1.90 form will do wonders to Day’s Rio chances.
    Last edited by olorin; 09-22-2015, 02:45 PM.

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  • olorin
    replied
    As the athletics year is basically over it is time to summarize this thread. 2015 was very eventful in both the men but even more so the women side in the US. In this summary I will not survey the NCAA season but instead will focus on the fight for the three places to Rio next year.
    Last year was the deepest ever in the US history with no less than 11 athletes above 6,000 points in the Heptathlon and the same number above 4,200 points in the Pentathlon. The fight for the tickets to Beijing was one of the closest and with one of the highest quality in the history. At the end of the day Bougard just edged Miller 6284 to 6274 points. Next year the US championship will be also the Olympic trials. Historically, there is a large increase in the level of the Heptathlon in Olympic years. Comparing the result of the third place athlete in the year before the Olympic year to the Olympic year itself reveals an average improvement of more than 200 points in the last five Olympic cycles. For example, in 2012 McMillan finished third with 6188, whereas in 2011 it took only 6003 points to book a ticket to the WC. Add to this the fact that the four main contenders for the last ticket to Rio improve their PB by more than 150 points last year and there is every reason to believe that it will take at least 6,400 points to make it to Rio. Below I will survey the main protagonists for the team for Rio. For each athlete I will summarize her performance in 2015, an outlook for 2016 and the events she needs to improve in order to increase her chances.

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  • olorin
    replied
    OK - I will start with NCAA posts:
    History
    Best mark for place in the Heptathlon:
    1. 6527 Diane Guthrie 95
    2. 6050 Makeba Alcide 13
    3. 5984 Keia Pinnick 13
    4. 5976 Erica Bougard 13
    5. 5899 Tanya Friesen 13
    6. 5865 Vanessa Jules 13
    7. 5853 Lucie Ondraschkov√° 13
    8. 5813 Allison Reaser 13
    9. 5691 Tatum Souza 13
    10. 5633 Shevell Quinley 07

    This year top ten qualifying marks:
    1 Bougard, Erica.............6250
    2 Chapman, Quintunya....6146
    3 Rahn, Xenia................6057
    4 Jones, Akela...............6049
    5 Gochenour, Alex..........6027
    6 Herauf, Jess................6014
    7 Williams, Kendell..........6003
    8 Hemann, Jena.............6002
    9 Latham, Deanna..........5914
    10 Larch-Miller, Nikki........5812

    So except the No.1 place the rest of the marks are likely to fall. Will we see the top eight all score more than 6,000 points?

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  • olorin
    replied
    Sharon Day competed in three events in Jim Bush.
    100h - 13.45 SB (PB 13.42)
    200 - 24.42 SB (24.02)
    LJ - 5.79 (6.15).
    She is already this season very close to her PBs in the SP & JT.
    Her jumps are the worrying part with 1.83 & 5.94 SBs she may struggle to reach 6,500 points and may find herself in second place behind Nwaba in USATF

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  • BWC
    replied
    Originally posted by olorin View Post
    One event is making wonderful athletes like Bougard, Williams, Gochenour and Brooks to ordinary.
    Agreed; and it also makes others (Hemann, Herauf) look less ordinary, at least among ncaa women.

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  • olorin
    replied
    So after Gotzic Nwaba is the best place American in 11th place and Bougard is the second in 13th place. It is likely that After USATF both Day and (maybe) Nwaba will make it to the top ten but then will slowly pushed out.
    But what if you would look at this ranking:
    1. BTE
    2. Ennis-Hill -281
    3. Rath -330
    4. Bougard -342
    5. Mokhnyuk -347
    6. Visser -361
    7. Schafar -379
    8. Nwaba -388

    Too good to be true?
    These are the rankings based on Heptathlon score in 2015 without the JT. One event is making wonderful athletes like Bougard, Williams, Gochenour and Brooks look ordinary.
    Last edited by olorin; 06-04-2015, 09:54 AM.

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  • olorin
    replied
    Originally posted by olorin View Post
    This weekend:
    The collegiate athletes are competing in the regionals.
    Nwaba is the only American Heptathlete that competes in Gotzic. Will she be able to score 6,400 points?
    Nwaba 6342 PB in Gotzic with two PBs (200 & 800). Where on her way to break 6,400 but threw 5m less than expected in the JT and lost ~100 points.
    In the Eastern regional Bougard continues with her wonderful year and ran 12.99 PB in the 100h (13.02). She then jumped 1.82 to qualify for the NCAA final. Williams continue to perform below par 1.79 and not qualify in the HJ. The ever improving Taliyah Brooks 13.12 (+2.8) in the 100h (13.23, +1.9).

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  • gktrack
    replied
    Originally posted by olorin View Post
    This weekend:
    The collegiate athletes are competing in the regionals.
    Nwaba is the only American Heptathlete that competes in Gotzic. Will she be able to score 6,400 points?
    I don't know of other heptathlon competitions in the coming two weeks in which the pros can try to make the standard for the USATF (GK??)
    Yes, time is running out on many folks (most notably, Nixon on the men's side). I know there's a hept/deca in Texas this weekend, and I thought I read somewhere that Moss and some other guys may be competing in (not sure about the weather though): http://www.smtexas.org/tga
    ... and I'm pretty sure there's there another hept/deca at the Oly Training Center in two weeks.
    Other than that, I will let you know (here or via private message) if I come across anything else, multi-wise. Enjoy.

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  • olorin
    replied
    This weekend:
    The collegiate athletes are competing in the regionals.
    Nwaba is the only American Heptathlete that competes in Gotzic. Will she be able to score 6,400 points?
    I don't know of other heptathlon competitions in the coming two weeks in which the pros can try to make the standard for the USATF (GK??)

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