48.21 at age 20

[runnerguy]

what are the chances for a male at age 20 with a PR of 48.21 in the 400 meters to run a 44 or even a 45 second 400 meters with 3-4 years?

[hj197steve]

Re: 48.21 at age 20

too many variables and unknown factors for anyone to hazard even a guess IMHO.

[go pre]

Re: 48.21 at age 20

i think it would be very difficult to drop that kind of time. here is what i found for andrew rock's personal records progression from his freshman year in 2001 (19 years old) up to last week when he ran a 44.66.

2001
Indoor 200- 21.84
Indoor 400- 48.45
Outdoor 200- 21.26
Outdoor 400- 46.52

2002
Indoor 200- 21.45
Indoor 400- 47.47
Outdoor 200- 20.91
Outdoor 400- 46.08

2003
Indoor 200- 21.34
Indoor 400- 46.96
Outdoor 200- 20.84
Outdoor 400- 45.29

2004
Indoor 200- 21.52
Indoor 400- 45.82 (300-meter track) 46.42 (200 track)
Outdoor 200- 20.85
Outdoor 400- 44.66

[bhartson]

Re: 48.21 at age 20

>too many variables and unknown factors for anyone to hazard even a guess IMHO.<

Amen, too many unknown factors. Talent is a start. A willingness, and desire to do the work is a whole different ballgame.

[Kirsner72]

Re: 48.21 at age 20

>>what are the chances for a male at age 20 with a PR of 48.21 in the 400 meters to run a 44 or even a 45 second 400 meters with 3-4 years?<<

There was this dude who, at 20 or 21, ran his first flat out 400 in over 50 seconds. In a short time he improved to 48xx. After years of training, he ran 44.26 at sea level and won both the 400 and the 800 (in a WR 1:43.50) at the 1976 the Olympic games...

I think his name was Alberto something or other...

Of course, what sets geniuses apart from mere mortals isn't where they start. It's their learning curve. Ask Jim Ryun. Mediocre 5:30-something mile in his first race. But _astoundingly_ rapid response to training...

[Realist]

Re: 48.21 at age 20

Don't forget that Rob would say that if your 200 metre best for the year falls from 22s to 23s in your next season startyou are oviusly on drugs. You can't project nothing from nothing.

[Speed]

Re: 48.21 at age 20

Depends how serious the runner is, and how serious his coach is. Also, the fastest improvements can only be made with resistance training!

[EPelle]

Re: 48.21 at age 20

Improve to 47,4 and then move up to the 800m!

[Decastar]

Re: 48.21 at age 20

Go for it! Do it because you love it--see where you end up. It's better to realize you tried and didn't make it, than to wonder what would have happened if you had tried. Listen to a "what-if" man.