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  • Bold 5k talk by Koech

    From Today's Top Headlines ... Isaiah Koech said the following; "We should do 2:16 in the final 1,000m to avoid the mistakes we made in Moscow where we did 2:22 in the final 1,000m. I am confident that we can beat Mo Farah (Britain’s double Olympic and world champion) in Beijing,” he said."

    Some thoughts;

    1. A 2:16 final kilo is probably faster than his straight up PR.

    2. He also says; "He added: “We should do 60 or 61 seconds in a lap then 58 seconds and finally strive for 54 seconds to be certain of victory." That adds up to his Moscow 2:22 final kilo, not a 2:16. He would have to run a 28-56-52 to achieve his 2:16. Not very likely.

    3. Running a 2:16, or a 2:22 final kilo presupposes a slow, tactical race, which has been the bane of the Kenyans for the last several global championships.

    4. It's nice to hear Koech talk about teamwork. But Kenyans talk about teamwork before every global championship. It will be nice to see if they actually carry out a team plan. If so, we will have an exciting 5k final in Beijing.

  • #2
    Yep ... when I first read "2:16", I assumed it was a misprint and he had really said "2:26" (which of course wouldn't be fast enough ending a slow race).

    2:16 is indeed crazy talk ... 54.4 per lap. I doubt Koech or any of the other Kenyans have closed faster than that just for the last lap many times; never mind sustaining that pace the final 2 1/2 laps.

    The article also says Koech has a PB of 12:45, which is incorrect. His PB is 12:48, from 2012. In the years since then he has ran 12:56, 13:07 and so far 13:07 again this year.

    He will need to be back to 12:48 or better form, along with his teammates and the Ethiopians, to really stand much chance against Farah, in my opinion.

    I don't believe he is, or that anyone else is or will be, close to that sort of form come late August. The best chance anyone has, I still think, is go fast from the beginning, trading off the pacing; make it 12:50 or faster. Farah hasn't been in a race like that, so you never know.

    But if no one will be in that sort of shape, of course that can't happen.

    We have seen the sick and kick; let Farah go to the front the last 2-3 laps and control pace; throw in a "surge" (usually no more than a 61-62, so not enough) maybe every 3rd lap or so, etc ... seemingly a million times. With 3:28.9 1500m speed, no one is outkicking Farah in a slow/slowish race (unless he were to get boxed or in bad position somehow).

    Other than simply making it fast, next best bet would be a gradual windup from far out, say 2K to go. Like Bekele's 7:30 last 3K in the 2008 Olympics ... only doesn't need to be quite that extreme.

    Maybe no one wants to show their true colours on the circuit this year, or are training through to Worlds, but it doesn't seem like the Kenyans or Ethiopians have anyone fit enough to offer much challenge.

    Koech ... only 13:07 and 7:37 this year.
    Longosiwa ... 12:59 and 7:39. Easily outkicked Koech in Birmingham, not too far back of Kejelcha in Rome.
    Soi ... 13:11 and 7:37, hasn't really featured so far.
    Ndiku ... missed tons of training, 7:36 win in Moncao. Best bet if somehow gets back to top form.

    Gebrhiwet ... 12:58 and 7:38. Beat Farah in Doha, but injured since early June
    Alamirew ... 13:22 and 7:36. Terrible early this year, better in Monaco (2nd) but still not that impresssive.
    Gebremeskel ... 13:00. Has won 2 5Ks, albeit against weaker fields. Well back but with decent time in Rome.
    Kejelcha ... 12:58. 2 big DL wins, but easily outkicked by Farah in Lausanne in slow race.
    Edris ... 13:00. Decent time but not in hunt in Rome. Set to do the 10K anyway.

    If Ehtiopia is pinning their hopes on a 17 year, in his first year of competing in the "big leagues", that's not a great place to be.

    Other possible challengers:

    Rop (Bahrain) ... 13:06 and 7:46. Hasn't looked to really be top tier since his 12:51 in 2013. Again not in great form so far this year.

    Kaya (Turkey, via Ethiopia) ... 13:00 and 7:38. New name, was never really a threat in Rome or Monaco. Maybe he continues to progress. So far doesn't look to have the kick to contend.

    Rupp ... 13:12. Only 2 races outdoors this year, soundly beaten at USAs, nearly faded to 4th. The 10K is definitely his stronger event.

    True ... 13:06. I think I've read he is most likely to do only the 10K. Don't see him as having the kick to really challenge over the shorter distance.

    Of course times don't tell all; see Farah with only a 13:11 and 7:38 to his name. But factor in 8:03 2 mile indoors and 3:28.9 a week ago, with 26:50 in May and I imagine he right at top 5K form (so his PB - 12:53 - at least).

    None of these other guys have shown me much (if anything) to suggest their fitness is much better than the times they have ran so far.

    Who knows ... anything can happen, of course.

    Comment


    • #3
      2:16 would be a world-class time in a straight-up 1000 race. I don't see anyone running that for the final km of a 5000, unless maybe the first 4k is on 15-minute pace.
      Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by bobguild76 View Post
        From Today's Top Headlines ... Isaiah Koech said the following; [I]"We should do 2:16 in the final 1,000m
        What's a little hyperbole among friends? We know what he means . . .

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Powell View Post
          2:16 would be a world-class time in a straight-up 1000 race. I don't see anyone running that for the final km of a 5000, unless maybe the first 4k is on 15-minute pace.
          To be fair, though, the Kenyans probably would beat Farah if they ran a 2:16 last kilometer. And they've tried other approaches and found they didn't work, so...

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by LopenUupunut View Post
            To be fair, though, the Kenyans probably would beat Farah if they ran a 2:16 last kilometer. And they've tried other approaches and found they didn't work, so...
            True dat! :-)

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by LopenUupunut View Post
              To be fair, though, the Kenyans probably would beat Farah if they ran a 2:16 last kilometer. And they've tried other approaches and found they didn't work, so...
              Has Farah ever been in a 12:50 race?

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Bruce Kritzler View Post
                Has Farah ever been in a 12:50 race?
                Yes; Brussels 2007 (he placed 10th in 13:07). But Farah now and Farah then are two completely different runners; at the time, that was his PB.

                I'm not sure the Kenyans would have any better chances in a 12:50 race than a slow race; if Farah shows up in top shape he can handle 12:50 pace much better than any of the Kenyans could. (If he doesn't show up in top shape, he's beatable anyway; he's not that awesome as a kicker.)

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