Top Pre-Beijing Favorites

[ATK]

Now that most major competitions prior to Beijing are over, was interested to see who the top favorites going into Beijing are.

And talking about athletes who have clearly separated themselves from the field both this year and based on previous years. For example Ibarguen in the triple jump. And then maybe Perkovic in the Discus and SAFP in the 100.

Is Dibaba or are her outdoor championship performances still questionable?

Any other clear favorites across the board?

[tandfman]

I'd be very surprised to see anyone beating Kiprop in the men's 1500. Ditto Eunice Sum in the women's 800.

[jeremyp]

I'd be very surprised to see anyone beating Kiprop in the men's 1500. Ditto Eunice Sum in the women's 800.

Wilson could beat Sum, but where has she been?

[AS]

Despite the fickleness of the event and it's inherent risks, I'd throw Lavillenie in the super favourite bucket.

[t_monk]

The World Record Holder in the 1500m maybe? Lady Dibaba

[AS]

And Fajdek in Men's Hammer...he does have the year's 10 leading marks!

[ATK]

And Fajdek in Men's Hammer...he does have the year's 10 leading marks!

True, also possibly even Wlodarczyk on the womens end as she has the top 4 throws and has beaten all her top competition on 2 or 3 occasions this year.

[gh]

Until I see otherwise, I'd say Bolt in the 100 (but not the 200).

[player]

Track athletes I would bet against the field:

W100: SAFP
W800: Sum
W1500: Dibaba
W5000: Dibaba
M5000: Farah
M10000: Farah

On a quick check of online books, only race I saw offered was the M100 with Bolt 8/11 and Gatlin 11/10.

[Tuariki]

Until I see otherwise, I'd say Bolt in the 100 (but not the 200).

Your assertion has probably caused an immediate upsurge at a number of cardio-thoracic units around the USA, and a resultant drop off in postings on this message board.

I have Bolt as the favourite in both events, although I would not yet ascribe him the descriptor of "clear favourite".

[Alan Shank]

A: Almost certain to win.
I really don't have anyone except Ibarguen in this category, myself. Adams, if she were in form, but maybe not even then, with Schwanitz now consistent over 20. Possibly Farah in the 10k.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

[tm71]

A: Almost certain to win.
I really don't have anyone except Ibarguen in this category, myself. Adams, if she were in form, but maybe not even then, with Schwanitz now consistent over 20. Possibly Farah in the 10k.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

I don't see that many either. If I were forced to pick I would include;
Ibarguen
Fadjek
Wlodatczyk
Farah
SAFP

[Sasuke]

That's not easy because in the majority of the competitions there are at least two contenders for gold. Ibarguen is a strong favourite, given also the regression of Saladukha and Rypakova, but russian Koneva is also 15+ this season and a dangerous contender. Given Ibarguen winning streak I wouldn't bet against her, though.
SAFP in the 100m is almost a lock, given her form and championship history. The two hammer throwers from Poland, Fajdek and Wlodarcick are also strong candidates (the first one has 10 top marks and Pars has not been in shape this year, Heidler is the only one who could stop Anita but it's not consistent and hasn't throw farther than 75m so far). Perkovich, well, in the last competitions she was quite disappointing and the two cuban athletes are a big danger to her if she can't throw close to 70m. So I wouldn't call her a strong favourite right now. Farah is obviously a favourite together with Kiprop in the M1500 and Dibaba in both the 1500 and 5000. Schwanitz is also a favourite, but we are in China so Gong could make a miracle but she needs to improve her PR who dates back to... 2009! I'd say Spotakova is also one, given her recent improvements and the lack of women who can throw 60 high right now. Lavillenie and Barshim at their best are above others, but the latter hasn't looked good at all recently and the first one could also have a bad day.

[Powell]

Schwanitz is also a favourite, but we are in China so Gong could make a miracle but she needs to improve her PR who dates back to... 2009!

It won't take a miracle for her to win. Yes, her PB may be old, but she's just 1 cm off it this year, and has already had her 2nd, 3rd and 4th longest career throws in 2015. Out of Schwanitz's 12 competitions this season, she's had two where she threw clearly longer than anyone in the world (20.77 and 20.60), but otherwise, she's operating at pretty much the same level as Gong.

[tamabi]

If Lavillenie can shake the WC jitters, he's the definite favorite.