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¶2015 WC wHept: Jessica Ennis-Hill (GB) 6669

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  • ¶2015 WC wHept: Jessica Ennis-Hill (GB) 6669

    T&FN chart

    1. Brianne Theisen-Eaton (Canada)
    2. Jessica Ennis-Hill (Gr Britain)
    3. Katarina Johnson-Thompson (GB)
    4. Carolin Schäffer (Germany)
    5. Nadine Broersen (Netherlands)
    6. Sharon Day-Monroe (US)
    7. Barbara Nwaba (US)
    8. Claudia Rath (Germany)
    9. Laura Ikauniece-Admidiņa (Latvia)
    10. Nadine Visser (Netherlands)
    Last edited by gh; 08-23-2015, 05:00 PM.

  • #2
    I'll throw out my projections/predictions. I tend to be pretty conservative, so some will certainly do better than this. Also, realizing the weakness of my projections, I tend to round my projections to the nearest 100, so the athletes will be listed in clusters.

    6700 points:

    Jessica Ennis-Hill
    Brianne Theisen Eaton

    They're in a virtual dead heat in my guesswork. If BTE performs like she did at Gotzis, she wins. If JEH returns close to her old self, she wins.

    6600 points:

    Nadine Broersen

    Pretty much the only person I'm predicting a PR for. Her last 4 competitions have all been over 6498 and she's still relatively young.

    6500 points:

    Sharon Day-Monroe
    Carolin Schäfer
    Katarina Johnson-Thompson

    KJT is the wildcard here due to her injuries and lack of competition. She could obviously easily out perform this at her best.

    6400 points:

    Nafissatou Thiam
    Laura Ikauniece-Admidina
    Akela Jones
    Barbara Nwaba
    Anouk Vetter

    A lot of youth here. It will be interesting to see if Jones can improve on what she did at the NCAAs.

    6300 points:

    Claudia Rath
    Eliška Klucinová
    Nadine Visser

    Any of these could just as easily be in the group ahead of them

    Comment


    • #3
      BTE vs. JEH

      100h - JEH is faster by 0.2-0.35 (30-50 points)
      HJ – one of the deciding events in the competition. At her best JEH is better than BTE (1.96 vs 1.89) but her best was three years ago and this year she jumped only 1.86. If BTE will jump a height higher (38 points) than JEH she will be the favourite to win the competition, a tie will suggest close battle with slight advantage to BTE and if JEH will jump higher she will become the favourite.
      SP – both around the ~14m and with every 50cm worth only 38 points there shouldn’t be any major changes after this event
      200 – both ran ~23.4 and with every 0.1 equal only 10 points no major changes are expected.
      LJ – maybe the most important event in the Heptathlon. BTE is better than JEH by 20-35cm (66-115 points) and will be very hard to bit if she will jump close to her best (6.72). If BTE will open a lead of more than 50 points she is very likely to win.
      JT – both throwing around ~46m at their best but seem inconsistent. With every meter worth 20 points it may be that the ultimate winner will be decided by a miss up in the Javelin rather than a good performance in the 100h / LJ.
      800 – both running ~2:09 and with every second worth 14 points can’t see many points gained.
      Heptathlon – with the SP, 200, JT and 800 really close the winner should be decided in the 100h, HJ and LJ. I think that BTE advantage in the LJ is bigger than JEH advantage in the 100h and the favourite for the event. However, the gap (on paper) is less than 50 points (or roughly one hight) and in Heptathlon terms it is very close race.

      Now add Broersen and KJT sit back and enjoy

      Comment


      • #4
        Nwaba doesn't make it beyond hurdle #2...

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by AS View Post
          Nwaba doesn't make it beyond hurdle #2...
          that was really odd...seemed like her steps were way off to the first hurdle.

          Comment


          • #6
            Great start for BTE 12.98 PB. JEH 12.91 (off her 12.54PB but much better than her 13.24 at Gotzis in May).

            Comment


            • #7
              Visser with a big PR. Nwaba looked like she pushed out so hard that it had her too close to H1 and then floated it really badly though tough to tell from the angle provided.

              Comment


              • #8
                Good start PBs & SB in each heat.

                http://www.iaaf.org/competitions/iaa...t#resultheader

                Comment


                • #9
                  First round to BTE with a PB and only 0.07 from JEH. Behind KJT also with a PB is looking good and now is a medal favourite and outside chance to win. Broersen below par with 13.54. Day is (relatively) best of the American not that far of her PB.
                  Now to the all important HJ when every hight is equal 38 points or almost 0.2 in the 100h

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by olorin View Post
                    Now to the all important HJ when every hight is equal 38 points or almost 0.2 in the 100h
                    And doesn't KJT co-hold the British National Record at 1.97??
                    If she can hit that, she'd take the lead, right?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by aaronk View Post
                      And doesn't KJT co-hold the British National Record at 1.97??
                      If she can hit that, she'd take the lead, right?
                      Well, it depends what her main competitors do. JEH has a 1.95 PB and BTE has a 1.89 PB. Each cm is worth about 13 points.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by aaronk View Post
                        And doesn't KJT co-hold the British National Record at 1.97??
                        If she can hit that, she'd take the lead, right?
                        She is 69 points behind JEH and 58 points behind BTE, so she will need three heights over JEH and two heights over BTE. Possible but she will probably need to be at her very best.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Man, that was really sad to see Nwaba fall once. It was even worse to see her then fall a second time after trying to recover and get some redeemable points.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Nwaba is HJ'ing!
                            So she's decided to go on, despite zero points in the 100H.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by aaronk View Post
                              Nwaba is HJ'ing!
                              So she's decided to go on, despite zero points in the 100H.
                              American misery continue with Day out in 1.80 (and also Nwaba). KJT with a scare clear only in the third try.

                              Comment

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