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¶2016 OT mDec: Ashton Eaton 8750 (WL)

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  • ¶2016 OT mDec: Ashton Eaton 8750 (WL)

    T&FN formchart

    1. Ashton Eaton (Nike)¶ 1
    2. Trey Hardee (Nike)¶ 2
    3. Jeremy Taiwo (Brooks)¶ 3
    4. Garrett Scantling (unattached)¶ (3)
    5. Zach Ziemek (Wisconsin)¶ 4
    6. Curtis Beach (Nike) nr
    7. Harrison Williams (Stanford) 7
    8. Devon Williams (Georgia)¶ nr
    9. Solomon Simmons (En Mich) nr
    10. Miller Moss (Chula Vista Elite) nr
    Last edited by dj; 07-04-2016, 12:52 AM.

  • #2
    9000 and everyone is disappointed....

    And I get to watch day 2....

    Comment


    • #3
      In the previous Olympic trials only two decathletes achieved Olympic qualification and competed in London. Four years later the decathlon is promised to be one of the most competitive events in the trials with no less than six Americans already with the Q and an expected fierce battle for the two remaining tickets.
      In this preview I will survey the main competitors for the tickets to Rio and my opinion about their chances. I will divide the athletes into four groups according to their abilities.
      Group 1 – a level of his own
      Ashton Eaton – While globally Warner is closing the gap on Eaton, in the US Eaton is still a level (or two) above anyone else. Eaton is the best ever runner-jumper to compete in the Decathlon and in recent years he improved his SP and JT.
      This year - mixed bag for Eaton. On the one hand he jumped the furthest in the LJ since 2012 and threw the SP to 15+m. On the other hand he seems to be going backwards in his two nemesis events the HJ (where he deteriorated to a “German level” of 1.9x) and the DT when the talk about a 50+ throw never materialised and a low 40’ is now the norm.
      Chances – unless Eaton is injured or fails to score in an event he will qualify for Rio. I don’t think that he will push for a big score, but rather settle for 8,600 – 8,800.
      Group 2 – let the fight for Rio begin
      No less than five athletes are eying the remaining two tickets to Rio. All of them can score way more than 8,300 in a good day and may even push towards 8450+ (This one is for you P)
      Trey Hardee –the biggest question mark in this year trials is what type of Hardee will show up. A healthy Hardee can easily score 8500+ points and book himself a ticket to Rio while an injured Hardee will probably compete in two events underperform and then withdraw. The problem is that a healthy Hardee is a rare commodity in the last few years as he finds it hard to complete two full decathlons in the same season.
      This year - performed well below par in all events that he participated in (e.g. 11+ in the 100, 6.58 LJ).
      Chances – if Hardee is healthy then he will make it and we can have a decathlon to remember. However, more likely that he will not finish the first day.
      Jeremy Taiwo – after a successful comeback last year that included a ticket to Beijing Taiwo is probably the (very) slight favourite to win a ticket to Rio. Taiwo is one of the best decathletes in HJ (PB 2.25!) and also very good in the endurance events. His major weakness in the long throws and especially the JT where he struggles to pass 50 meters!
      This year – compete in Gotzis and score higher than Scantling. Still no PBs, but was impressive in the HJ.
      Chances – will need to be at his very best to beat both Scantling and ZZ. Competed much less than Scantling and ZZ so may be saving his best for the trials.
      Garrett Scantling – if the trials were in a year or two, I believe that Scantling will be a heavy favourite to make the team. Scantling, in my opinion, is the most talented of all the post-Eaton generation and keep adding to his portfolio more and more fire power. Unlike most Americans he is a wonderful thrower (15.90-47.47-67.34) good in the HJ and fast, while his main Achilles heel is the LJ.
      This year – Finished second behind ZZ in the iNCAA. Compete in Gotzis where he improved his PB in four events for a total improvement of 111 points.
      Chances – the main problem of Scantling is to bring it all where it counts. After finishing his collegiate career without a single title will the trails be the place when it all comes together?
      Zachary Ziemek (AKA ZZ) – The third member of the elite post Eaton generation is the ever improving ZZ. He started his collegiate career scoring typically 100-200 points less than Scantling and for every improvement that Scantling had, ZZ answered with an improvement of his own. ZZ is one of the best pole vaulters in game with a PB of 5.45.
      This year – won the iNCAA against Scantling, added a Silver (behind Victor) in the outdoor season in the process substantially improving his PBs in the endurance events that used to be his weakness. Improved his PBs in five events for a total of 140 points.
      Chances – While probably still behind Taiwo and Scantling as far as current potential, ZZ has shown that he can perform when it counts. If Hardee DNF he has a good chance to qualify.
      Curtis Beach – my dark horse for this competition is Curtis Beach. Beach is one of the best ever runner-jumper in the history of the event. However, his throws are so horrible that it deteriorates him below the level required to make the team.
      This year – broke two PBs in the 110h and the SP (indoor). However, performed well below par in many events. Major concern is the JT when his SB is only 40.96 meter! His speed in the 100 (10.88) is also far from his best.
      Chances – dark horse sometimes win, but usually stay in the dark. In my opinion very unlikely to make the team but I hope I am wrong.
      Group 3 - young talented but need few more years.
      Solomon Simmons, Davon and Harrison Williams (no particular order) are three talented collegiate that will most likely have to wait for the next Olympic cycle to have a realistic chance to represent the US. All three are capable to score 8,100+ and I will include them in my projections.
      Group four – The forgotten group
      The bottom half of the decathletes include decathletes on the comeback and collegiate hopeful. These athletes are (very) unlikely to score the required 8,100 points so even if all above fail they will not go to Rio. I will not provide projections for this group.

      Comment


      • #4
        I'm with Olorin regarding Eaton's score. In my four man pool, I projected 8723. When Ash set the WR in 2012, he had a monster first three events and just continued to build upon them. My guess is that the real contractual bonus money comes with winning the Olympics and Olympic or World records in Rio. There's no point in killing himself to win the USATF since there's no one near him competitively and why risk injury with Rio so near.

        Comment


        • #5
          To help enjoy the fight for Rio I used similar methodology to the one I use in the NCAA. For each group of decathletes (see my previous post) I set a target mark. These targets marks are:
          Group 1 (Eaton) 8,800
          Group 2 (Hardee, Scantling, Taiwo, ZZ , Beach) 8,400
          For each decathletes I calculated the revised sum of PBs giving less weight to old PBs. Then I divided the target scored by the revised sum of PBs score. I time this ratio with the number of point that his PB worth and finally rounded the corresponding mark.

          For example, Scantling’s revised sum of PBs is 8664, therefore his ratio is 8400/8664=0.97
          Scantling PB in the 100 is 10.66 that is equal to 938. The number of points that Scantling need to score in the 100 (in order to be in 8400 pace) is 0.97*938=910 points, which is roughly equal to 10.78.

          In short this method gives all the contenders (save Eaton) the same target based on their ability in each individual event and (hopefully) makes it easier to evaluate their progress.
          The Targets for the first day are:
          Eaton (8800 pace) – 10.45, 7.90, 14.50, 1.97, 46.00
          Hardee – ..10.66, 7.20, 15.20, 1.95, 49.00
          Scantling – 10.78, 7.10, 15.50, 2.10, 49.50
          Taiwo – …..10.93, 7.45, 14.70, 2.18, 48.20
          Ziemek –… 10.64, 7.55, 14.50, 2.05, 49.5
          Beach – ……10.60, 7.80, 13.10, 2.05, 47.2
          Last edited by olorin; 07-02-2016, 04:37 PM.

          Comment


          • #6
            Awesome, olorin! Did you mean to include Beach in the "projections"? Also, since Devon Williams already has a score over 8100 this year, it might not be a terrible idea to include him as well. I realize pegging him to 8400 like the others will most likely make him immediately fall off that pace once this thing gets going.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by tgs3 View Post
              Awesome, olorin! Did you mean to include Beach in the "projections"? Also, since Devon Williams already has a score over 8100 this year, it might not be a terrible idea to include him as well. I realize pegging him to 8400 like the others will most likely make him immediately fall off that pace once this thing gets going.
              Beach is now added to the projections. I will add more decathletes if one of them will threaten the top three.

              Comment


              • #8
                Thank you for the great preview.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Eaton 10.34
                  Hardee 10.54
                  ZZ 10.60

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    ZZ gets a small advantage with a 10.60, 10.34 for Eaton and Hardee good at 10.54 (and does this mean that he is in good, and solid, form?).
                    Last edited by 26mi235; 07-02-2016, 05:04 PM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      An Eaton WR is not likely, but we have a seemingly healthy Hardee

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Can Hardee get through the LJ unscathed? If he can it raises the odds on his finishing.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Eaton...make the team with a good score(his standards) and go for the WR in Rio.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Against projection:
                            Eaton (8800) +26

                            Hardee (8400) +28
                            ZZ (8400) +10
                            Taiwo (8400) -2
                            Scantling (8400) -18
                            Beach (8400) -35

                            D.Williams (8200) +18
                            H. Williams (8200) +9

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by booond View Post
                              Can Hardee get through the LJ unscathed? If he can it raises the odds on his finishing.
                              Question is---
                              Is Hardee hearty & hardy, or hardly so?
                              LOL

                              Comment

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