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¶2016 OG w800: Caster Semenya 1:55.28 (WL)

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  • ¶2016 OG w800: Caster Semenya 1:55.28 (WL)

    T&FN formchart:

    1. Caster Semenya (South Africa) 1:55.33 (’16)
    2. Francine Niyonsaba (Burundi) 1:56.24 (’16)
    3. Margaret Wambui (Kenya) 1:57.52 (’16)
    4. Melissa Bishop (Canada) 1:57.43 (’16)
    5. Eunice Sum (Kenya) 1:56.99 (’15)
    6. Ajee’ Wilson (USA) 1:57.67 (’14)
    7. Maryna Arzamasova (Belarus) 1:57.54 (’15)
    8. Lynsey Sharp (Great Britain) 1:57.71 (’15)
    9. Kate Grace (USA) 1:59.10 (’16)
    10. Nataliya Pryshchepa (Ukraine) 1:59.08 (’16)
    Last edited by dj; 08-21-2016, 01:44 AM.

  • #2
    1-2 are almost certain. But I think Wambui is beatable.

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    • #3
      Bishop has run well this year and I could see her getting Bronze.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by TN1965 View Post
        1-2 are almost certain. But I think Wambui is beatable.
        Maybe, even more because she is doubling 400 and 800. So she will have at least two 400s on her legs. I don't think she is capable of reaching the fnal in the one lap but she is consistent in the 51 high range so I expect her to pass the heats.

        Comment


        • #5
          Regarding the event outlook, I still see Semenya's sometimes flaky racing style as a risk to her gold prospects. She is not unlike a female Kiprop in this way. the difference is that Kiprop seems to mess up more in ordinary races on the circuit, while Semenya makes bigger blunders at championship events.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Powell
            Niyonsaba ran 1:56 at 19 in 2012, with no known results before that season. She mysteriously disappeared mid season in 2013, reappeared, running rather poorly in 2015, then suddenly started to find form soon after CAS's infamous decision, improving from 2:05 to 1:57 in September. Now she's once again a 1:56 runner. Those are the facts; make of them what you will.
            Wambui never broke 2 minutes before the CAS ruling, though I'm sure in her case, her physical appearance is playing a pretty big role in the speculation, fair or not.

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            • #7
              Having watched how the w400 final turned out, I'm now worried that Ajee' might not even make it to the final. The miscalculation that Allyson made, down the back-straight in the 400, and waiting too long to make that move on the turn, is a regular occurrence with Ajee'; which is why she failed to make the final of the 2014 indoor WC and finished 2nd at the 2016 indoor WC.

              I'm waiting for her to actually try something on the back-straight, after the 500 mark. But I have noticed that, in many of her races, she doesn't make her move until she gets to the far turn. That will not do her any good if Semenya and Niyonsaba (or anyone else, for that matter), have made their move well before the turn.

              Personally, I think she is going to have to pull a Pamela Jelimo if she wants a medal; that is, make that move to the front at the 400 mark, and put some distance between her and the pack by the time she gets to around 550. Semenya and Niyonsaba are likely to go with her, maybe Sum. The rest, I don't think so.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by CookyMonzta View Post
                Personally, I think she is going to have to pull a Pamela Jelimo if she wants a medal; that is, make that move to the front at the 400 mark, and put some distance between her and the pack by the time she gets to around 550. Semenya and Niyonsaba are likely to go with her, maybe Sum. The rest, I don't think so.
                This is assuming Semenya doesn't hit the bell at 55 right?

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                • #9
                  26 out-of-line posts purged from here; many of them by people who should know a lot better than that.

                  This thread is about the racing in Rio, end of story.

                  Thank you

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by ATK View Post
                    This is assuming Semenya doesn't hit the bell at 55 right?
                    What is Ajee's 400 PR?

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by CookyMonzta View Post
                      What is Ajee's 400 PR?
                      54.43 from 2013.

                      Semenya has her 50.74 from this year.
                      In Monaco, I think the pacer was about 55 high and Semenya was right behind.

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                      • #12
                        Wilson has a slim chance to medal anyway given her current form. Even if we dismiss the big 3, Bishop and Sum seem to be the better contenders for medal. But of course 800m can produce very unexpected results.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by ATK View Post
                          54.43 from 2013.

                          Semenya has her 50.74 from this year.
                          In Monaco, I think the pacer was about 55 high and Semenya was right behind.
                          given how few full-blown 400s Wilson has ever attempted, that 54.43 is most likely not remotely representative of her true speed.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by gh View Post
                            given how few full-blown 400s Wilson has ever attempted, that 54.43 is most likely not remotely representative of her true speed.
                            I agree, especially considering she ran 54.51...... in 2010

                            But Its tough, if not impossible to determine what she can actually run. Heck, we debate what actual 400m runners can do all the time.

                            And the same can be said for Semenya who has not attempted many 400's.

                            If Semenya goes out at 56.00 or better, barring injury/tripping, I don't see any scenario allowing Wilson, (or any American) to hold on with Semenya even to 600m, let alone putting distance on them.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by ATK View Post
                              This is assuming Semenya doesn't hit the bell at 55 right?
                              She doesn't typically lead does she? She'll need someone running that 55 in all likelihood which I don't see right now.

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