Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

¶2017 WC wHept: Nafi Thiam (Belgium) 6784

Collapse

Unconfigured Ad Widget

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • ¶2017 WC wHept: Nafi Thiam (Belgium) 6784

    T&FN form chart and PRs

    1. Nafi Thiam (Belgium) 7013 (’17)
    2. Laura Ikauniece-Admidiņa (Latvia) 6815 (’17)
    3. Carolin Schäfer (Germany) 6836 (’17)
    4. Katarina Johnson-Thompson (G Britain) 6691 (’17)
    5. Claudia Salman-Rath (Germany) 6580 (’17)
    6. Erica Bougard (USA) 6557 (’17)
    7. Anouk Vetter (Holland) 6626 (’16)
    8. Kendell Williams (USA) 6564 (’17)
    9. Yorgelis Rodríguez (Cuba) 6481 (’16)
    10. Sharon Day-Monroe (USA) 6550 (’13)
    Last edited by gh; 08-07-2017, 02:58 PM.

  • #2
    Anyone have a link for one of those multi-event forecasting services?

    Comment


    • #3
      The weather looks like it might be ok during the heptathlon which is good news.

      Comment


      • #4
        I'm really looking forward to this more than I ever imagined. Before Rio I wasn't sure who was going to step up and fill the void from JEH and BTE (if she retired), but the wonderful thing is almost everyone in the chasing pack stepped up. LIA who challenged BTE for the bronze in rio has pushed on more, Schafer has taken another step, KJT has made some big training changes and did get a pb in Gotzis(which although small was her first total score pb since 2014 I think). Vetter's progress continues, there are some like Bougard who've really made quite significant strides.

        I think Thiam is miles the favourite especially because she's now in a category where she can under perform and still be in top, her running in the hurdles and 200m has improved to a stage where they are no longer liabilities, and her 800m isn't bad and we've seen her twice push herself to pb's in Rio and Gotzis when something she wants is on the line. I'm interested in LIA a lot, she's got the speed that Thiam lacks and can match her in the throws (maybe more a Jav than shot girl though) its the jumps where she seems to have her struggles. I was impressed though in Gotzis to finally see her get a good LJ out and turn her speed into distance. So if she can do that again and be in the 6.50 range I can see her as the silver medal lady. If she could get herself to a new pb in the HJ it could get a bit tasty though if Thiam under performs there even by only a height. She could even lead day 1 depending on the HJ due to her having superior speed.

        Schafer too has it in her to lead on day 1 in the same circumstances, good speed like LIA, slightly better HJ pb but both around the same mid 1.80's height, but they make up for some of their losses through their speed advantage over Thiam in the 200. Her Javelin isn't as good at Thiam and LIA and I think that might be where those two pull away from her unless she somehow has a lead coming into that event. The three of them have similar LJ's so that helps keep it interesting especially if day 1 is tight. Also the vast majority of her pb's are from this year so she seems to be in good form and confidence right now which is one of those special intangibles that you can't put a price on.

        KJT is anyone's guess. she has looked much happier this year to me when I've seen her. She's got god people to work off at her new camp. She's got the tools to be in the mix big time, its all going to come down to the throws for her and if she can limit her losses there, and by how much. She's got the problem now though that her weaknesses seem like they matter more now than they did before due to the way Schafer and LIA in particular have narrowed that gap, they have good speed and throw well and have good LJ's, she beats them in the HJ by quite a way but in LJ within the hept setting she's jumped much further than they have she's usually in the 6.50 range, which they can both do. Moreover they throw miles better than she does. So it puts real pressure on her to deliver somewhere in the high 1.90's in the HJ, if she doesn't, I can't see her getting the bronze unless one LIA or Schafer crumbles, and realistically on past evidence she's the more likely to crumble. I would love to see her put something together though at this stage anything 13 plus in the shot would be good and would surely her confidence going into day two that things are working better than before.

        You've got the outsiders and the young guns coming along, Vetter has HJ issues and its her Achilles heel, but if she makes a breakthrough that pushes her up. Bougard is coming along steadily but suffers from the same disease as KJT in the throws, Salman-Rath and Williams there too, Rodriguez is due a bit of a step up too. They're all in that 6600 to 6400 range where someone always seems to jump out and have a great comp.

        I think it could be fascinating to watch, it's great to see so many realistic medal contenders.

        I'm going for Thiam, LIA, and Schafer for the medals, but I can see KJT getting in there if she can conquer some demons, and possibly someone from the larger chasing group, Vetter, Salman-Rath, one of the americans possibly. I am very excited though. Not sure we'll see scores like Gotzis, but it'd be amazing if we did, this crop did deliver in Rio and Gotzis so maybe London will be special too.

        Comment


        • #5
          You have to count the 1-2-3 in Gotzis as the favourites for medals in London, but there are a few things to consider regarding KJT that may make it interesting and can see her challenge for a medal.

          KJT had a foul jump around the same distance as Rath's 6.86 in Gotzis. KJT's 6.53 scored her 1017 pts. Rath's 6.86 scored 1125. So had she not fouled that 6.8, that's already another 100 pts. So she'd be touching 6800.

          Then in the 800 in Gotzis KJT ran 2:11.12 (948 pts). Had she run 2:08 (Bougard ran 2:08.68 for 984 pts) she'd have picked up nearly 40 pts. So she would have ended up on a par with Schafer around 6840.

          These aren't unrealistic or crazy predictions - KJT has jumped 6.8 before, and she did in Gotzis, it was a foul, and she has run faster than 2:08 before. So, in reality, she actually just needs to re-produce her Gotzis marks in all her events, nail the LJ board this time, and run as she can in the 800.

          Now, add to that the fact that she didn't taper for Gotzis, that she was still doing weights two days before (when she would usually stop doing weights 1 month (!) before a meet) and she hadn't long switched locations etc. then I think she will be in better form come London.

          She has also taken a different approach to the 800m in training and racing, going with the pace rather than hang back and sprint finish. Now, this didn't translate into sub 2:10 in Gotzis, but as I said, apparently no tapering, and she'll be stronger come London.

          She'll also have home advantage.

          So, as it has been since Beijing, the LJ really is KJT's critical event. She needs to be beating the other women by 30cm + in the LJ. She has the ability to do this; she just needs the discipline to do it now. That gives her a 100pt cushion in that event.

          Looking at points and day 1/day2, KJT loses around 300 pts to Ikauniece in the JT. She can gain 40 on her in the 800m, so really needs to gain that 30cm (100pts) in the LJ if she can. That means she'd lose around 160 pts overall on Day 2, so needs something like the 216 cushion she had over her in Gotzis after day 1. But that LJ is critical.

          With Schafer, KJT loses around 200pts to her in the JT, but could gain 80pts in the 800m. Again, the LJ is critical.

          I haven’t included Thiam in this at all as she should be a solid bet for gold. Of course, if she throws 54m in the JT again, that’s 80-90 pts less, than Gotzis; if she HJs 1.95 not 1.98 that’s another 40pts less, so she’s down in the high 6800’s. Still probably too much for anyone else to beat though.

          Comment


          • #6
            I agree about Thiam, I think just has a bit too much of an advantage at her best currently that even if she's average she's still very much in the mix for gold.

            KJT has never gotten a legal big LJ though in comp yet, I don't doubt it'll come soon enough her pb is much higher than she's ever done in hept so it should come. But the problem seemed in the past to always be mentality and the pressure on the LJ after the bad shot and with the jav to come. If she can go into it with a fresher mindset that will surely help her, even 10 more cm's gives her something to work with, especially as unlike in Rio aside from Thiam the ones in front of her LIA and Schafer are new to this pressure to medal.

            I'm not sure about LIA in the 800m, she tracked BTE and outsprinted her to the line, and went under 2.10 so I think with another rabbit to chase like KJT I think she could go lower. Schafer definitely loses out in the 800 though to KJT. LIA always had a sub par LJ and Gotzis was really the first time she got anything really over 6.50, so we'll have to see if she has actually turned a corner with her LJ and will now consistently be in the 6.5x area, or if she'll go back to being 20-30 cm lower than that. She jumped 6.12 in Rio so Gotzis was quite a step up.

            I feel like given their strengths and weaknesses, KJT has the better chance of overturning Schafer than LIA but anything can happen when pressure is involved and I think for the first time in a long time the pressure is lessened on KJT due to her previous failures. I feel this could be a bit more like 2014 for her where she's certainly someone people think is in the mix but she's not for the favourite tag, it might help loosen her up to have less pressure.

            I agree on the LJ being very important, but I do honestly think the HJ as well particularly for Schafer and LIA will be pivotal if they can both get into the 1.86 plus range I'm not sure there is much KJT can do in the LJ that can't be rectified in the javelin particularly for LIA. Schafer for me will be very vulnerable though in the 800 if there is less than 5 seconds difference, don't think LIA will I think she'd just track KJT and finish quite close to her.

            To add to the HJ as well, KJT will be helped by having the h2h with Thiam, it seems to have been really good for them to bounce off each other in Rio and Gotzis and in the earlier years too. Plus it gives them a break between jumps to have someone there, and helps keep the crowd involved when there is a contest going on. Helps keep the energy up. I know from a Latvian friend that LIA talked in the media after Rio about enjoying being able to have little h2h's in the javelin with people as well and that helps her to throw further using someone else's throw as a target trying to win the Javelin comp within the hept comp.

            I'm just excited to see this, I feel like 7000 is unlikely for Thiam. I think maybe the hurdles will tell the tale for Thiam if she has the speed to be 13.4 or lower in the hurdles that bodes well for her being in the mid 24's for her 200, and if she can keep those two speed events ticking over nicely the rest sort of takes care of itself. Her shot was under par in Gotzis and her Javelin over, so if those balance out she could get to 7000. LJ has seemed pretty consistent for her since Rio so I think 6.5x range is a reasonable expectation.

            I could honestly see it being a bit like Gotzis with barely anything much between the top group on day 1.Perhaps LIA will be a bit further back unless something good happens for her in the HJ. Compared to each other Thiam has decent hurdles, great HJ, great shot, and decent 200m. LIA has good hurdles, bad HJ, decent/good shot, good 200m. KJT has decent/good hurdles, great HJ, bad shot, great 200. Schafer has good hurdles, bad/decent HJ, good/great shot, good 200m. They're all kind of together just making up the score in different ways which keeps it interesting.

            KJT runs into the problem on day 2 though that whilst she is the best LJ if she can get to those distance cleanly in hept finally she isn't enough better than them in the same way they are better than her in the Javelin, particularly Thiam and LIA. And LIA can run the 800 well, I would even say in the right circumstances with a HJ pb LIA would be the gold dark horse if Thiam is just average across the board.
            Last edited by dinamo; 08-04-2017, 10:45 AM.

            Comment


            • #7
              I do wonder how the crappy timetable will influence the ladies. 10 hours between long jump and 800m is ridiculous.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by norunner View Post
                I do wonder how the crappy timetable will influence the ladies. 10 hours between long jump and 800m is ridiculous.
                Wow I knew it was big but not that big. What's the difference between Javelin and LJ?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by norunner View Post
                  I do wonder how the crappy timetable will influence the ladies. 10 hours between long jump and 800m is ridiculous.
                  I assume this is a result of the truncation of evening sessions. There is no longer sufficient time to fit 2 pools of Javelin and about 4 heats of 800m in the session unless the 800m is the last event of the night. This is not likely to be the case when there is a men's 100m final featuring Bolt on the schedule.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    The LJ is at 10:00
                    The first JT pool is at 11:45, the second at 13:00
                    The 800m is at 20:40

                    Assuming they do the usual approach with the JT pools (separated by SB/PB) then KJT will be in the earlier pool and LIA, Schafer and Thiam in the second pool.
                    The LJ usually takes an hour so KJT will be finishing the LJ and straight over to the JT area. No time to sort her head out of she jumps badly. If she jumps well, she'll be on a high.

                    Of course, this gives the other women an advantage ala Chernova/Ennis in 2011, as they will know what KJT has thrown before they do their event.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I think when it comes to the Javelin, for Thiam and LIA they seem such natural throwers that over 50m is sort of a given for them so KJT's performance may have little to no influence on them, but Shafer who has a pb of just less than 51m might feel some pressure if KJT has managed something over 42m, because she needs a decent buffer over KJT going into the 800m.

                      Also like you say Gabriella2, with the small time gap between LJ and Javelin pool start for KJT it might be a help or a hindrance for her mentally depending on her LJ performance. Will be interesting to see how her mood goes over the two days though, however she performs, she did look much happier in Gotzis, or at least more positive and relaxed. I also thought she looked a little meatier in the shoulder but that might be due to as you say no winding down her training in the run up. But I wonder if a bit more power up top might help her with the throws if she can develop a reliable technique.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by norunner View Post
                        I do wonder how the crappy timetable will influence the ladies. 10 hours between long jump and 800m is ridiculous.
                        Wouldn't more rest time be better than less?
                        Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Powell View Post
                          Wouldn't more rest time be better than less?
                          Multi-event athletes generally prefer to do their different events in a shorter time window (like Gotzis) so they don't have to do a full warm-up each time.
                          Additionally, they cannot really leave the stadium as the travel time to/from their hotels would be too long.
                          So they have to sit there doing nothing, hoping to find a good mattress.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by nico21 View Post
                            Multi-event athletes generally prefer to do their different events in a shorter time window (like Gotzis) so they don't have to do a full warm-up each time.
                            Additionally, they cannot really leave the stadium as the travel time to/from their hotels would be too long.
                            So they have to sit there doing nothing, hoping to find a good mattress.
                            With 7-8 hrs between JT and 800, I would think they'll have enough time to go back to the hotel and have a nap.
                            Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Start lists are up, KJT in the fastest heat for the 100m might mean she gets pulled along to a new pb there. She's slowest in that heat, and its been a while since she really upped that hurdles pb so maybe finally being in the fastest heat will help drag her on.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X