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¶2017 WC w5000: Hellen Obiri (Kenya) 14:34.86

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  • ¶2017 WC w5000: Hellen Obiri (Kenya) 14:34.86

    T&FN formchart and PRs

    1. Hellen Obiri (Kenya) 14:18.37 (’17)
    2. Genzebe Dibaba (Ethiopia) 14:18.86 (’15)
    3. Almaz Ayana (Ethiopia) 14:12.59 (’16)
    4. Senbere Teferi (Ethiopia) 14:29.82 (’16)
    5. Yasemin Can (Turkey) 14:36.82 (’16)
    6. Sifan Hassan (Holland) 14:41.24 (’17)
    7. Laura Muir (Great Britain) 14:49.12 (’17)
    8. Shannon Rowbury (USA) 14:38.92 (’16)
    9. Letesenbet Gidey (Ethiopia) 14:33.32 (’17)
    10. Marg. Kipkemboi (Kenya) 14:43.89 (’17)
    Last edited by dj; 08-13-2017, 06:47 PM.

  • #2
    Ayana is the HOOOOJ x-factor here.

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    • #3
      I will make predictions after seeing Ayana's form in the 10000.

      The Americans have zero chance of medaling, but I'm intrigued to see who will rank the highest.

      Huddle (former AR and one of the best american female track distance runner for the couple of years) VS Rowbury (AR holder) VS Houlihan (US champion). I pick Rowbury.

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      • #4
        If Ayana is fit, I wonder how she'll approach this 5000 given the way she cracked in Rio? Obviously given her lay off she's not likely to go as fast in the 10000 as there but still she did really explode in that 5000 so maybe it'll make her more circumspect in her tactics which might make it easier for people to cling onto her? Or make it harder if she waits longer but goes much harder? I feel Obiri is quite versatile so should still be favourite, plus Ayana is unlikely after this injury hit season to be in the shape she was last year.

        Honestly I have no idea, but I have enjoyed her emergence on the distance scene and the way its changed the distance races which are now races from the start and not jogs till over half way.

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        • #5
          After the 1500 semis and 10,000, it looks like "Baby Baby" is not in best form, and Ayana is, but will she save enough energy to tackle a fresher Obiri?
          Cheers,
          Alan Shank

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Alan Shank View Post
            After the 1500 semis and 10,000, it looks like "Baby Baby" is not in best form, and Ayana is, but will she save enough energy to tackle a fresher Obiri?
            Assuming that Ayana is not super-sore after that 10000 (anyone in shape to destroy a field like that, should be able to recover quickly). Obiri is phenomenal, but Ayana looked other-worldly! I picked her for second here, but would probably amend that to first now, if I had the chance. Obiri can't out-kick a runner that is 100m ahead of her with one lap to go. <:0

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            • #7
              So it looks to me like Obiri and Ayana have the top 2 spots, who do you all think is the favorite for 3rd? Dibaba (even after her 1500 performance)? Hassan(who needs it to be a slow race to be in contention)? Or Teferi(who is capable of running sub 14:30)?

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              • #8
                Originally posted by romado33 View Post
                So it looks to me like Obiri and Ayana have the top 2 spots, who do you all think is the favorite for 3rd? Dibaba (even after her 1500 performance)? Hassan(who needs it to be a slow race to be in contention)? Or Teferi(who is capable of running sub 14:30)?
                Or Muir

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                • #9
                  I have no idea how this will play out, but that ignorance makes speculation all the more liberating ... especially before seeing how the heats play out, and how fast-slow they go.

                  I would agree that it does seem Ayana and Obiri are 1-2, one way or the other. Hard to imagine anyone else being up there. OTOH, I thought Ayana would win the 5k in Rio, and in the actual event, she 'only' earned the bronze. So, as always, what do I know -- but it does look like those two for silver and gold.

                  As for bronze medal candidates, were I obligated to suggest some 'dark horse' I might look for someone who does not have either the 1500 or 10k on her legs. G. Dibaba has 3 @ 1500 on her legs (and ran slower in each). Also, Hassan and Muir have 3 @ 1500. Can has the 10k on her legs. So I would probably go with Teferi, but who knows -- maybe Rowbury an outside chance.

                  I will be very curious to see how the heats go.

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                  • #10
                    The Americans---

                    Huddle
                    Strength is over several laps, not final sprint!
                    Weakness---slowest 1500/mile PR's of the US trio!

                    Rowbury
                    Her AR in the 1500 probably more indicative of her 5K potential than her 5K AR!!
                    I believe---given perfect shape, weather, pacing---she has low 14:20's potential!

                    Houlihan
                    Recently ran PR's of 4:03 & 8:37.
                    Hasn't broken 15 in the 5K yet, but those times indicate she can go at least 14:50!
                    Also, my "gut" tells me she has most potential of the 3!
                    Whether she realizes it in London is the Big Question!
                    But she's on a roll---and seems fearless!

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                    • #11
                      I just looked at the start lists for the w5k heats, and in Heat 1, I see: Ayana, Obiri, Teferi, Can, and Muir. And then, Susan Krumins, who has run 14:53 this year. (And Rowbury, by the way, since I mentioned her above.) I realize IAAF doesn't seed by TFN's Formcharts but that's 6 of the top 8 on the Formchart, and most of the ones mentioned for possible medals (and Krumins); among those mentioned so far here, Heat 1 is absent G. Dibaba and Hassan (and then of course the last 2 from the Formchart). Who knows how it will play out, but with Heat 1 competitors not knowing what sorts of times will get through on "q" there might be a very fast Heat 1. Of course, the opposite of that is also just about equally possible, as always. But given that 5 get through on Q, Heat 2 just does not look very deep to me, and not as risky for the top candidates.

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                      • #12
                        Obiri is fresh, and given how hard Ayana went in that 10k she must be feeling it a bit. There are a bunch of people in this who did either the 10k or the 1500 so mixed in with fresh athletes who are only doing the 5k.

                        Obvously Ayana didn't go as hard as she did in Rio, but she's also not had the season she had in 2016 and hasn't been able to put in the work. We know how she'll run it, at some point she will go and start amping up the pace and churning out the laps. Question is when will she go, will she have learnt from Rio about how to back up the 10k in the 5 in a championship? Will Obiri go with her, or do more like Cheriyot and do her own pace and stay close so that if Ayana does crack she can sweep her up like Vivian did?

                        There isn't a huge difference in Obiri and Ayana's pb's, so it should be a closer race than the 10k. Bronze seems wide open, be nice to see a few pb's in there, any race with Ayana is primed to be a tough one, she can't run them any other way, she needs them all gone before the final lap.

                        Heats as you say will be interesting Master Po, especially if the fresher athletes try and push the pace on a little to see how the athlete who have already raced are feeling. Someone might be gone before the final even begins, Dibaba got worse with each round, but maybe the slower pace of a 5k might suit her more? No idea, depends on what was wrong in the 1500, she just didn't seem able to go up a gear and sustain it.

                        Wonder if Obiri will just track Ayana in the heat? Or if she'll stick with the pack and just sprint to her Q, especially due to the fact Ayana still goes a bit in heats to drop everyone so she guarantees her place because she can't leave it to a sprint.
                        Last edited by dinamo; 08-09-2017, 04:15 PM.

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                        • #13
                          social media chatter is that G. Dibaba is out of the race
                          Tom Hyland:
                          "squack and wineturtle get it"

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                          • #14
                            FWIW she seems to still be on the start list but IAAF is historically slow to report last minute withdrawals on the start list
                            Tom Hyland:
                            "squack and wineturtle get it"

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                            • #15
                              It wouldn't exactly be a shock if she was out, she didn't exactly shine in the 1500.

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