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  • Bolt Records Longevity

    He says they'll last 15-20 years. I find that disingenuous. He HAS to know his 100 could last 50 years. I'm also of the persuasion that 19.19 is way better than people give it credit for. Lots of talk that VNK would break it this year. Not so much. Blake was 19.26, so it seems feasible. MJ's 19.32 was thought unbeatable, but I do predict the 19.19 will stand longer 25 years.

    But that 9.58, that's faaaaar out there.

  • #2
    I think you're (as is Bolt) underestimating what guys like Coleman, WVN, Simbine, or....might do in the next 3 or 4 years!

    Bolt got his 1st 100 WR of 9.69 just 5 days before his 22nd birthday!
    His 9.58 came exactly one year later---both on August 16!

    Who's to say how fast Coleman et al can run??
    Maybe he'll run 9.72 in 2018!
    BTW, the WR before Bolt was----9.72!!

    As for the 19.19, it's not that much better---if at all!---than the 9.58!

    If someone runs a 9.65 or better, I'd say he could run 19.19 or faster!
    Again, before Bolt, the WR was 19.32.
    Was anyone then predicting someone would come along and run 19.19?

    Let's see how things develop in the next year or two (post-Bolt!!) before we acknowledge Usain as the Nostradamus of T&F!

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    • #3
      I'm with Atticus - Bolt's estimate is the minimum, with decades being more likely. THAT SAID, I'd love to be wrong.


      The comment section on ESPN where I first saw this article are hilarious.
      You there, on the motorbike! Sell me one of your melons!

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by aaronk View Post
        I think you're (as is Bolt) underestimating what guys like Coleman, WVN, Simbine, or....might do in the next 3 or 4 years!

        Bolt got his 1st 100 WR of 9.69 just 5 days before his 22nd birthday!
        His 9.58 came exactly one year later---both on August 16!

        Who's to say how fast Coleman et al can run??
        Maybe he'll run 9.72 in 2018!
        BTW, the WR before Bolt was----9.72!!


        As for the 19.19, it's not that much better---if at all!---than the 9.58!

        If someone runs a 9.65 or better, I'd say he could run 19.19 or faster!
        Again, before Bolt, the WR was 19.32.
        Was anyone then predicting someone would come along and run 19.19?

        Let's see how things develop in the next year or two (post-Bolt!!) before we acknowledge Usain as the Nostradamus of T&F!
        Not quite 9.72 before Bolt. Asafa Powell ran 9.74. It was Bolt who ran 9.72 in NYC to break his WR.

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        • #5
          His 19.19 could be beaten. Yohan Blake stumbled at the start when he ran 19.26. Without that stumble, he could have broken the world Record. But 9.58, nobody is breaking that

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Blaise_n_n View Post
            Yohan Blake stumbled at the start when he ran 19.26.
            MJ stumbled in his 19.32. He was not going to go faster without the stumble and neither was Blake (IMO). If anything, it adrenalized them to running that fast.
            I don't see VNK, Coleman, DeGrasse, Makwala or anyone else on the horizon breaking the 200 record. I think Lyles can be the best, but 19.6 would be my guess at his future PR.

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            • #7
              Mr. Bolt has no idea how long his records will last...

              I think that 200 mark will be attacked quite soon.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by beebee View Post
                Mr. Bolt has no idea how long his records will last...
                I think that 200 mark will be attacked quite soon.
                I will be asking you for stock tips if it goes in my lifetime. I can't see it.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                  I will be asking you for stock tips if it goes in my lifetime. I can't see it.
                  lol...how about asking prophet Bolt?

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                  • #10
                    The big unknown here is doping and where it's headed; if someone comes up with a new wonder drug that improves performances significantly but is hard to detect, Bolt's records (especially the 19.19) might go down surprisingly soon.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by beebee View Post
                      lol...how about asking prophet Bolt?
                      when did he get demoted from god?

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                      • #12
                        I feel it's a futile task to make any specific predictions about the longevity of records, since by definition outliers are impossible to predict. It seems pretty certain that none of the current top guys is likely to threaten Bolt's WR, but there's no way of knowing whether someone who's currently 14 years old might not be the next sprint phenom.
                        Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Powell View Post
                          I feel it's a futile task to make any specific predictions about the longevity of records, since by definition outliers are impossible to predict.
                          My take is that Bolt already represents an extreme outlier, and the likelihood of someone being an even more extreme outlier in the foreseeable future is too low to consider.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                            My take is that Bolt already represents an extreme outlier, and the likelihood of someone being an even more extreme outlier in the foreseeable future is too low to consider.
                            You may be right, but I'd point out that after the Atlanta Olympics, a lot of people were saying the same thing about Michael Johnson.

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                            • #15
                              I predict 50 years for 100m and 25 years for 200m. Would only be shorter if there is some phenomenal technological development either in spikes or diet.

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