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  • Berlin Marathon 2017

    Reliable source reports a couple of "2nd tier" men - Patrick Makau and Luke Kibet - have scratched. Neither was going to win (or probably even be close).

    Weather forecast: cloudy, 15% chance of rain, high of 63 low of 51 (pre dawn).

  • #2
    Originally posted by Fielding Melish View Post
    Reliable source reports a couple of "2nd tier" men - Patrick Makau and Luke Kibet - have scratched. Neither was going to win (or probably even be close).

    Weather forecast: cloudy, 15% chance of rain, high of 63 low of 51 (pre dawn).
    Will management provide a 'rabbit' that goes out in sub-60 (HM)?

    If the atmospheric conditions (wind, temp, humidity) are conducive to a record, it could go, sub-2 or no sub-2.

    The best conditions I ever ran in (and got a huge PR in my rare 10K forays) was 60 degrees with drizzling rain, low wind.

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    • #3
      Has anyone seen the full elite field listing? I couldn't find it on the website of the meet.
      Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Atticus View Post
        Will management provide a 'rabbit' that goes out in sub-60 (HM)?

        If the atmospheric conditions (wind, temp, humidity) are conducive to a record, it could go, sub-2 or no sub-2.

        The best conditions I ever ran in (and got a huge PR in my rare 10K forays) was 60 degrees with drizzling rain, low wind.
        There is no way they will go 60min for the first half. That will result in a serious carnage in the second half. If the conditions are right, they will probably go 61:15-61:20.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Atticus View Post
          Will management provide a 'rabbit' that goes out in sub-60 (HM)?

          If the atmospheric conditions (wind, temp, humidity) are conducive to a record, it could go, sub-2 or no sub-2.

          The best conditions I ever ran in (and got a huge PR in my rare 10K forays) was 60 degrees with drizzling rain, low wind.
          My guess is that when a sub 2 is run, it will be done with a slight negative split. I'm not sure we are there yet.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by NotDutra5 View Post
            My guess is that when a sub 2 is run, it will be done with a slight negative split. I'm not sure we are there yet.
            I am sure that we are not there yet. The best marathon runner of the era had all of the stars aligned and all the help possible, including not only a lot of pacers in a V continually trading off, but a big wind block in the form of the clock on top of the car, no corners, no competition worries, ... and he was still 25 seconds back.

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            • #7
              I predict 2:02:10-2:02:15

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              • #8
                2:01:55

                Last mile in 3:59.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by 26mi235 View Post
                  I am sure that we are not there yet. The best marathon runner of the era had all of the stars aligned and all the help possible, including not only a lot of pacers in a V continually trading off, but a big wind block in the form of the clock on top of the car, no corners, no competition worries, ... and he was still 25 seconds back.
                  fer craps sake. It was a figure of speech. I'm well aware 2hours isn't happenin at this time.

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                  • #10
                    My fear is that with 3 superstars in it, the race becomes tactical in the second half.
                    Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Powell View Post
                      My fear is that with 3 superstars in it, the race becomes tactical in the second half.
                      I think if they're on WR pace after 15 miles they'll continue that pace. Of course they want to win, but I don't see Bekele or Kipchoge sacrificing a shot at the record for this win. Besides, if either of them is feeling really good, then the best tactic would be to keep the pace on fire.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Karl View Post
                        I think if they're on WR pace after 15 miles they'll continue that pace. Of course they want to win, but I don't see Bekele or Kipchoge sacrificing a shot at the record for this win. Besides, if either of them is feeling really good, then the best tactic would be to keep the pace on fire.
                        Indeed. There is much more acclaim for a WR than there is for the win. In the long run (pun!), more money too.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Karl View Post
                          I think if they're on WR pace after 15 miles they'll continue that pace. Of course they want to win, but I don't see Bekele or Kipchoge sacrificing a shot at the record for this win. Besides, if either of them is feeling really good, then the best tactic would be to keep the pace on fire.
                          You should read Kipchoge's comments about the sub-2 effort. He said that one thing that made a big difference was not having to worry about racing and the compromises that leads to in when and how you push. Also, remember that it was KK who won the dual between Geb and Tergat - and it got a pretty go time mark as well...

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by 26mi235 View Post
                            You should read Kipchoge's comments about the sub-2 effort. He said that one thing that made a big difference was not having to worry about racing and the compromises that leads to in when and how you push. Also, remember that it was KK who won the dual between Geb and Tergat - and it got a pretty go time mark as well...
                            Then I guess we'll just have to hope one of them falls off the pace early.

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                            • #15
                              Sammy Kitwara is one of the pacemakers (half marathon 58:48), expected to go to 32K. The race is being streamed on NBC Gold at 11:30 PDT Saturday night. Of course, several people on this board only care about times, but I'm looking forward to an incredible RACE among these three great runners. Kipsang doesn't have the track credentials of the other two, although he ran 10,000 in 28:31.5 in Nairobi, no mean feat. It seems unlikely that he is going to want to be with Kipchoge and Bekele at 40K.

                              Can't wait!
                              Cheers,
                              Alan Shank
                              back in Woodland, CA, USA

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