Berlin Marathon 2017

[gh]

note from "Professor of Marathon" (Sean Hartnett), on the ground in Berlin: <<my biggest concern is the rising dew point that looks to be 52 or 53 for the race.>>

[Alan Shank]

Good grief, folks! This is NOT rocket science.
2 hr = 120 min
120 / 42.195 = 2.844 - 2 = .844 * 60 = 50.63, so 2:50.63/kilo
2.844 * 5 = 14.22 - 14 = .22 * 60 = 13.2, so 14:13.2 for 5K

Or, just do it like 120 / 42.195 * 5 = 14.219.!

The only fact you need is that the marathon is 42.195 meters (or 26.21875 miles)
Sheesh,
Alan Shank

PS I threw together a spreadsheet with kilo, mile and 5K splits for every time between 2:03 and 2:00, every 10 seconds. If anyone wants a copy (which you should be able to easily adapt for any set of times), send me a private message. I also have a spreadsheet that takes input of every 5K split, then projects the final times two ways -- average pace and current pace (i.e. last 5K split).

[aaronk]

Hang on--I'm trying to do the calculation for sub-2 if they run perfectly even half splits. nearly there.

14:09.8 per 5000!
Brings you to 42K at 1:58:57.2!
Last 385 yards would be 62.7 (1:59:59.9)

[exdrake]

Hang on--I'm trying to do the calculation for sub-2 if they run perfectly even half splits. nearly there.

[Fielding Melish]

In Toni Reavis story Berlin's dream race it says, "With its uber fast two-loop course. . ."

Incorrect. Take a look at map. One big loop around the city.

[Conor Dary]

Per Jon Gault over at LRC:

"Jos Hermens -- agent for Bekele and Kipchoge -- told me the plan is for pacers to hit halfway in 60:50. For reference, 61:28 is WR pace and 61:11 is the fastest first half split ever in a marathon (not counting Breaking2)"

Still amazing that Steve Jones was 61:42 32 years ago and without a rabbit.

[Atticus]

here's the pace for 2:02:24---as close as I could figure it!
10K in 29:00

Oofda!
So a 2:02:19 is sub-29 10Ks all the way!! That sounds really fast to me.

[imarunr]

There is no way they will go 60min for the first half. That will result in a serious carnage in the second half. If the conditions are right, they will probably go 61:15-61:20.

Per Jon Gault over at LRC:

"Jos Hermens -- agent for Bekele and Kipchoge -- told me the plan is for pacers to hit halfway in 60:50. For reference, 61:28 is WR pace and 61:11 is the fastest first half split ever in a marathon (not counting Breaking2)"

[aaronk]

slightly off topic

Does the newest edition of Big Gold Book have the marathon pace pages showing sub 2:03 paces?

Don't know, as I own the 2012 edition!!
But here's the pace for 2:02:24---as close as I could figure it!

2:54 per K
5K at 14:30
10K in 29:00
15K in 43:30
20K in 58:00
Half in 1:01:12
25K in 1:12:30
30K in 1:27:00
35K in 1:41:30
40K in 1:56:00
Last 2195 meters in 6:24

Per Mile pace is about 4:39.6

[Atticus]

several people on this board only care about times

Present!
Except for the OG/WC 'thons, I only look at the times.
I know I'm not alone.

[wineturtle]

slightly off topic

Does the newest edition of Big Gold Book have the marathon pace pages showing sub 2:03 paces?

[Alan Shank]

It's also on NBCSN at midnight, PDT, Saturday night, but undoubtedly horribly cut up by commercials, most of which are scheduled for right when someone makes a big move. >:-)
Cheers,
Alan Shank

[Alan Shank]

Sammy Kitwara is one of the pacemakers (half marathon 58:48), expected to go to 32K. The race is being streamed on NBC Gold at 11:30 PDT Saturday night. Of course, several people on this board only care about times, but I'm looking forward to an incredible RACE among these three great runners. Kipsang doesn't have the track credentials of the other two, although he ran 10,000 in 28:31.5 in Nairobi, no mean feat. It seems unlikely that he is going to want to be with Kipchoge and Bekele at 40K.

Can't wait!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
back in Woodland, CA, USA

[Karl]

You should read Kipchoge's comments about the sub-2 effort. He said that one thing that made a big difference was not having to worry about racing and the compromises that leads to in when and how you push. Also, remember that it was KK who won the dual between Geb and Tergat - and it got a pretty go time mark as well...

Then I guess we'll just have to hope one of them falls off the pace early.

[26mi235]

I think if they're on WR pace after 15 miles they'll continue that pace. Of course they want to win, but I don't see Bekele or Kipchoge sacrificing a shot at the record for this win. Besides, if either of them is feeling really good, then the best tactic would be to keep the pace on fire.

You should read Kipchoge's comments about the sub-2 effort. He said that one thing that made a big difference was not having to worry about racing and the compromises that leads to in when and how you push. Also, remember that it was KK who won the dual between Geb and Tergat - and it got a pretty go time mark as well...