Berlin Marathon 2017

[Atticus]

I think if they're on WR pace after 15 miles they'll continue that pace. Of course they want to win, but I don't see Bekele or Kipchoge sacrificing a shot at the record for this win. Besides, if either of them is feeling really good, then the best tactic would be to keep the pace on fire.

Indeed. There is much more acclaim for a WR than there is for the win. In the long run (pun!), more money too.

[Karl]

My fear is that with 3 superstars in it, the race becomes tactical in the second half.

I think if they're on WR pace after 15 miles they'll continue that pace. Of course they want to win, but I don't see Bekele or Kipchoge sacrificing a shot at the record for this win. Besides, if either of them is feeling really good, then the best tactic would be to keep the pace on fire.

[Powell]

My fear is that with 3 superstars in it, the race becomes tactical in the second half.

[NotDutra5]

I am sure that we are not there yet. The best marathon runner of the era had all of the stars aligned and all the help possible, including not only a lot of pacers in a V continually trading off, but a big wind block in the form of the clock on top of the car, no corners, no competition worries, ... and he was still 25 seconds back.

fer craps sake. It was a figure of speech. I'm well aware 2hours isn't happenin at this time.

[Karl]

2:01:55

Last mile in 3:59.

[measurer]

I predict 2:02:10-2:02:15

[26mi235]

My guess is that when a sub 2 is run, it will be done with a slight negative split. I'm not sure we are there yet.

I am sure that we are not there yet. The best marathon runner of the era had all of the stars aligned and all the help possible, including not only a lot of pacers in a V continually trading off, but a big wind block in the form of the clock on top of the car, no corners, no competition worries, ... and he was still 25 seconds back.

[NotDutra5]

Will management provide a 'rabbit' that goes out in sub-60 (HM)?

If the atmospheric conditions (wind, temp, humidity) are conducive to a record, it could go, sub-2 or no sub-2.

The best conditions I ever ran in (and got a huge PR in my rare 10K forays) was 60 degrees with drizzling rain, low wind.

My guess is that when a sub 2 is run, it will be done with a slight negative split. I'm not sure we are there yet.

[TN1965]

Will management provide a 'rabbit' that goes out in sub-60 (HM)?

If the atmospheric conditions (wind, temp, humidity) are conducive to a record, it could go, sub-2 or no sub-2.

The best conditions I ever ran in (and got a huge PR in my rare 10K forays) was 60 degrees with drizzling rain, low wind.

There is no way they will go 60min for the first half. That will result in a serious carnage in the second half. If the conditions are right, they will probably go 61:15-61:20.

[Powell]

Has anyone seen the full elite field listing? I couldn't find it on the website of the meet.

[Atticus]

Reliable source reports a couple of "2nd tier" men - Patrick Makau and Luke Kibet - have scratched. Neither was going to win (or probably even be close).

Weather forecast: cloudy, 15% chance of rain, high of 63 low of 51 (pre dawn).

Will management provide a 'rabbit' that goes out in sub-60 (HM)?

If the atmospheric conditions (wind, temp, humidity) are conducive to a record, it could go, sub-2 or no sub-2.

The best conditions I ever ran in (and got a huge PR in my rare 10K forays) was 60 degrees with drizzling rain, low wind.

[Fielding Melish]

Reliable source reports a couple of "2nd tier" men - Patrick Makau and Luke Kibet - have scratched. Neither was going to win (or probably even be close).

Weather forecast: cloudy, 15% chance of rain, high of 63 low of 51 (pre dawn).