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  • Conor Dary
    replied
    Oh dear....probably true with applied mathematicians...but not all mathematicians...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6OaYPVueW4
    Last edited by Conor Dary; 09-27-2017, 01:37 AM.

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  • gh
    replied
    Originally posted by 26mi235 View Post
    Not so, the 9s he has implies 320, and I am pretty sure that an order of magnitude more than that would recognize him. I would guess that LetsRun has at least 320, maybe 1000 or more, and this board has quite a few of the regulars.
    mathematicians never were noted for having a sense of humor!

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  • Conor Dary
    replied
    Okee Dokee....so to be conservative 99.999%..would not recognize Kipchoge....

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  • 26mi235
    replied
    Originally posted by gh View Post
    you left out several 9s
    Not so, the 9s he has implies 320, and I am pretty sure that an order of magnitude more than that would recognize him. I would guess that LetsRun has at least 320, maybe 1000 or more, and this board has quite a few of the regulars.

    Leave a comment:


  • TN1965
    replied
    Originally posted by Master Po View Post
    I will be interested to see what Adola does, but I read in one of the race recaps from Berlin, in observing that Adola has the fastest debut ever (record-legal courses), among the 10 fastest debut marathons, only Kipchoge has run faster after the debut (or something like that).
    I think what the recap said was that Kipchoge was the only one to run his second marathon faster than his first. Kimetto should be among the 10 fastest debut marathoners (2:04:16 in 2012), and he has run faster than that twice. But his second marathon was 2:06 in Tokyo.

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  • KDFINE
    replied
    Originally posted by TN1965 View Post
    Kipsang had some stomach issues, according to Toni Reavis.

    https://tonireavis.com/2017/09/24/mo...in/#more-17815
    Thank you for this information.

    Leave a comment:


  • Master Po
    replied
    You are raising your son right. He will be grateful to have a father like you. By comparison, I had to learn all of this stuff the hard way -- by reading Track and Field News. No one in my family knows/knew who any of these persons are. Well, that's not exactly true -- I think most of them know about Jesse Owens.

    ps. Agree w you regarding Kipchoge. I realize anyone can be beaten, and I know the marathon is an unpredictable event, but at this point, he seems unbeatable. As if this recent win, and Monza, were not enough. His only loss required a WR to beat him. Moreover, I find his 2:03:05 in London last year to be as impressive as anything he has done -- beyond the fact that he was 46 seconds up on Biwott, the next fastest winning time at London is 1:24 slower.

    Regardless of wrangling over how old any of these guys 'really' are, going by stated ages in the databases we use, Kipsang and Bekele are both older than Kipchoge. Those two may have other great marathons in them, but it did not look so in Berlin. Most of the other fastest ones are also around these (stated) ages too. Adola is younger, as are several of the other fastest Ethiopians (Tola, Abshero, Abera, Mekonnen, et al.). However, most of those other fastest (after Adola) have achieved their fastest times at Dubai -- not that there is anything wrong with that, but they also have not approached those 2:04:xx from Dubai anywhere else. Kipchoge has run his 8 @ 2:05:30 or faster at five different courses (London, Berlin, Chicago, Rotterdam, Hamburg) -- not to mention his OG win.

    I will be interested to see what Adola does, but I read in one of the race recaps from Berlin, in observing that Adola has the fastest debut ever (record-legal courses), among the 10 fastest debut marathons, only Kipchoge has run faster after the debut (or something like that). Of course, Adola may come out next time and run a WR, but I am not betting on it. On the other hand, assuming good health and no accidents -- and good weather -- I would bet that Kipchoge runs near to the WR both at London and Berliln next year (I am assuming those would be his marathons of choice).
    Last edited by Master Po; 09-26-2017, 10:46 AM.

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  • Karl
    replied
    But regarding the marathon, as a HUGE Bekele fan, his foray into the marathon really has been filled with ups and downs. World record! No, he's done. World record! No, never. World record! Career over.

    Kipchoge is now what Bekele once was on the track.

    Leave a comment:


  • Karl
    replied
    He's 7 and he already well knows who Usain Bolt is! Bolt is his comparison for everyone. "Daddy, are as fast as Usain Bolt?" "Daddy, is the Flash as fast as Usain Bolt?" "Daddy, is Bekele faster than Usain Bolt?"

    I'm just saying, if I raise him right, he'll know who Kipchoge is. If he doesn't know, how can I live with myself as a father?

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  • gh
    replied
    Originally posted by Conor Dary View Post
    You could show his picture and 99.9999% of Americans wouldn't have the slightest idea who he is...so he would be in good company.
    you left out several 9s

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  • Conor Dary
    replied
    Originally posted by Karl View Post
    When my little boy inevitably asks me what consistency means, I'm going to show him a picture of Eliud Kipchoge.

    If he then asks me who that is, I'll probably hang my head in shame.
    You could show his picture and 99.9999% of Americans wouldn't have the slightest idea who he is...so he would be in good company.
    Last edited by Conor Dary; 09-26-2017, 02:33 AM.

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  • thedoorknobbroke
    replied
    Originally posted by Karl View Post
    When my little boy inevitably asks me what consistency means, I'm going to show him a picture of Eliud Kipchoge.

    If he then asks me who that is, I'll probably hang my head in shame.
    if it a few years from now he would probably ask who U. Bolt is.

    Leave a comment:


  • thedoorknobbroke
    replied
    Originally posted by Alan Shank View Post
    So, you got 1-to-2 odds. That would be a fair bet (i.e. no vig) if Bekele had a .33 probability of winning.
    1/3 x -500 = -166.66
    2/3 x +125 = +166.66

    Since his probability of winning was almost certainly considerably lower than that, whoever gave you those odds was foolish, it seems to me. Giving him a .33 probability of winning is like saying that only he, Kipchoge and Kipsang had any chance of winning, and each was equally likely. What about all the other runners, like Adola, for instance?

    If Bekele's probability of winning was .2, a fair bet would be:
    .2 x -500 = -100
    .8 x +125 = +100
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA, USA
    a relatively small casino in a relatively small city in NV...doubt they would do it again

    Leave a comment:


  • TN1965
    replied
    Originally posted by KDFINE View Post
    I'm aware that sometimes a guy gives up the ghost when he doesn't have it, to save himself for another (pay)day. But my query had to do with any actual explanations of causes (e.g. bllster, stomach ailment, leg pain, etc.) rather than simply "I was getting beaten."
    Kipsang had some stomach issues, according to Toni Reavis.

    https://tonireavis.com/2017/09/24/mo...in/#more-17815

    Leave a comment:


  • KDFINE
    replied
    I'm aware that sometimes a guy gives up the ghost when he doesn't have it, to save himself for another (pay)day. But my query had to do with any actual explanations of causes (e.g. bllster, stomach ailment, leg pain, etc.) rather than simply "I was getting beaten."

    Leave a comment:

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