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2018 European Championships Combined Events

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  • 6816 wl

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    • For what it's worth, for the 22 athletes who finished the event, the average difference between the actual scores and my initial projected scores is 41 points, or 0.66%.

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      • Interesting stat. Obviously the lower ranked athletes perform nearer to your predictions, as much bigger differences with those top 8. I guess it shows the top girls rise to the occasion better than the others.

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        • Perhaps it is the other way around: the women who "rise to the occasion better" end up at the top. (8—{D

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          • Originally posted by Davidokun View Post
            Perhaps it is the other way around: the women who "rise to the occasion better" end up at the top. (8—{D
            I think it is partly that. Also some of the lower-placed athletes have probably peaked early to qualify.

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            • Originally posted by Trickstat View Post
              Apparently they were in an official event car when the accident happened.
              On the BBC they said they were in an official minibus.

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              • Originally posted by Trickstat View Post
                I think it is partly that. Also some of the lower-placed athletes have probably peaked early to qualify.
                The more I think about it the more difficult this task becomes.

                As I understand it, Davidokun used a recent average of heptathlon scores for his projections.

                The problem with this approach is that this will tend to obscure improvements in individual events due to natural improvement, comeback from injury and special focus on problematic events (KJT).

                It also doesn't take into account the issue of people not going all out in all events every time esp 800m.

                I think the only way to address this would be to build a model based on individual event performance, then aggregate to total score.

                IT would also allow some sort of time-based weighting like the IAAF rankings, giving you a much better projection of current event performance.

                If you then combined that with expected difference between PB and combined event PB (eg historical average LJ in LJ competition is 20cm better than Hep LJ) you might get a more reliable outcome.

                Given the significant extra workload this would require, I would happily nominate anybody who's not me to do the all work!

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                • Mayer has announced he'll go for an O'Brien.

                  see story on home page

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                  • Davidokun -- thanks for doing so much work on this thread. Much appreciated!

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                    • You're welcome, Master Po. Always happy to be of service to a fellow denizen of these message boards.

                      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNWoTBILfQw

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                      • Originally posted by Master Po View Post
                        Davidokun -- thanks for doing so much work on this thread. Much appreciated!
                        Yes, thanks a lot. The sessions were so tightly packed it was hard for me to post and watch at the same time, so douple plus good for being able to give us updates.

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                        • Thank you, Davidokun, for another great job with the multi events. I look forward to your expert analysis every time there is a major competition.

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                          • Originally posted by TWalsh View Post
                            Thank you, Davidokun, for another great job with the multi events. I look forward to your expert analysis every time there is a major competition.
                            I echo this. Always wonderful to see people interested and invested in multi eventing. Always engaging and informative work from you Davidokun.

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