¶2019 wWC Hept: KJT (Great Britain) 6981 (WL)

[cigar95]

That Kendall Williams performance is a perfect example of the thing I love best about sports in general - the moment when an athlete does something truly special and then the sheer joy that follows it. (This might be my #2 "moment", after a figure skating performance by Aren Nielsen back in 1993.)
And the multis are just an added bonus in that the fellowship among the competitors is such that the others were just as thrilled as she was.

I hope she can follow this up with a big score for the 7 events to top it off.

And the flip side is the agony of a moment like Dadic.

[cigar95]

David can you add a quick explanation of where your projections come from? Does it start with a personal assessment, or strictly quantitative?

[Davidokun]

Aren't I glad I picked her for Bronze!
Did I miss something that should have told me she wasn't going to compete?

I doubt it. She was included in the initial start list. I noticed her absence last night.

[Davidokun]

Why do you think Thiam will finish over 200 pts ahead of KJT?

David can you add a quick explanation of where your projections come from? Does it start with a personal assessment, or strictly quantitative?

My projections are based on summing average event performances. For the women, I average over one year (the present year). For the men, I average over two years (the previous year and the present year). Previous experience has shown that these sample periods result in more accurate predictions.

The primary purpose of these projections is to enhance the fan experience by providing some insight into the actual leaders, who may or may not top the leaderboard early in the competition.

The athletes generally outscore these projections because they are peaking for this championship event. The difference may be viewed as a shortcoming of my present methodology. Alternatively, it may be viewed as a measure of successful preparation by coaches and athletes.

[Atticus]

The primary purpose of these projections is to enhance the fan experience . . . The athletes generally outscore these projections because they are peaking for this championship event.

It certainly enhances THIS fan's experience, and I like that they are 'conservative'.

[dinamo]

The battle for bronze looks like it could be wide open now. Schafer not contesting opened the door a lot, but with now Krizsán and Dadic going there is a real opportunity for someone to come through. Vetter might be my pick due to her experience but wouldn't surprise if Preiner, Bougard or Williams get it. Probably come down to a test of nerves. I'll also be interested to see how Ruckstuhl progresses given if she's anywhere near the mix her javelin could give her a boost over the others vying for bronze (aside from Vetter)

[Powell]

KJT obviously feeling confident, choosing not to come in until 1.83 in the HJ.

[cigar95]

It certainly enhances THIS fan's experience, and I like that they are 'conservative'.

Agreed. Media just gives current totals, which are obviously important, but miss an important component.

[Powell]

I like that they are 'conservative'.

I agree; PB projections always make the competition look like a disappointment.

[Trickstat]

It certainly enhances THIS fan's experience, and I like that they are 'conservative'.

I agree. Using PBs alone allows for distortion by outlying performances or an older athlete having some PBs they can no longer match in something like HJ or 1500.

[steveu]

Ahhh... the heptathlon giveth ... and taketh away. Williams misses 1.80 in the HJ and will have to settle for 1.77 after her stunning 12.58 100H. Bougard got it on her 3rd try and moves up to 1.83.

[Trickstat]

Just Thiam and KJT still jumping now.

[Trickstat]

Both over 1.92.

[dinamo]

Both over 1.92.

They seem to be taking turns in who takes more attempts at each height.

[Trickstat]

Both over 1.95!