bekele, shaheen-cherono-elg 5k

[dougja burke]

reuters reported today that shaheen cherono plans to run both the steeple and 5k in helsinki, el g has already said he will move up to 5k and bekele wants redemption in the 5k, should be a great race.

[kuha]

Re: bekele, shaheen-cherono-elg 5k

Of course, we also had our hopes sky-high for the Athens 5000...

[MJD]

Re: bekele, shaheen-cherono-elg 5k

"“I will be running the 5,000 metres and steeplechase in Helsinki next year,” he said afterwards."

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.as ... 004_pg2_30

I wonder if he hopes to still run 7:45.

[slowcoach]

Re: bekele, shaheen-cherono-elg 5k

That's a great line-up. What about the reigning world 5k champion?

[black bear]

Re: bekele, shaheen-cherono-elg 5k

Sounds like a great race except that they will all probabley jog the first 2k then start racing leaving it to EL G again especially if he is only racing the 5000.

[eldrick]

Re: bekele, shaheen-cherono-elg 5k

>That's a great line-up. What about the reigning world 5k champion?


coachy

does it really matter ?

they'll still run 11.5 laps in 13'00 & have 10 guys bunched at the bell - kennster will make the start ( terrified of el g), el g will shoot past leaving a broken kenny behind choge & cherono fighting for 2nd...

[runninfool]

Re: bekele, shaheen-cherono-elg 5k

No way. Bekele will push the pace, guaranteed. He's learned he's not the fastest guy on the block if the pace is slow. But he likely is the best 5,000-meter runner -- it will be much more like the 10,000 was in Athens.

[eldrick]

Re: bekele, shaheen-cherono-elg 5k

>No way. Bekele will push the pace, guaranteed. He's learned he's not the
>fastest guy on the block if the pace is slow. But he likely is the best
>5,000-meter runner -- it will be much more like the 10,000 was in Athens.

maybe kenny is that dumb

he may try to sit back & try to outkick el g off a slow pace every time

it could turn out to be another ceplak/mutola story - ceplak at her her low-1'55 peak had the ability to grind mutola into the dust, but tried each time to outkick her of a 1'58 pace - a complete waste of time

now,ceplak could use the excuse of of being a dumb blonde,so what is kenny's going to be ?

[EPelle]

Re: bekele, shaheen-cherono-elg 5k

Bekele will be competing against an athlete focussed on the 5,000m, not the 1,500m. El G trainers this year stated that El G was completely set on winning the 1,500m gold in Athens, and that he had not concentrated on the 5,000m at all. That revelation could be both positive and negative.

Positive: Full concentration could produce a WR (LR homepage has a link on top to an El G WR article). Negative: full concentration could make him a good distance runner with some speed, rather than a great middle-distance runner with range.

[eldrick]

Re: bekele, shaheen-cherono-elg 5k

>Bekele will be competing against an athlete focussed on the 5,000m, not the
>1,500m. El G trainers this year stated that El G was completely set on winning
>the 1,500m gold in Athens, and that he had not concentrated on the 5,000m at
>all. That revelation could be both positive and negative.

el g still would stand little chance against kenny in a fast 5k

for a start, he needs to more-or-less give up on the 1.5k & build up his 5k endurance

currently,he's probably ~ 3'27 guy

he needs to give up on the speed & let this drift to the 3'28 - 3'29 level & start running ~7'20 for 3k to show he's building up the longer distance stamina

however, even

3'28 - 3'29 \ 7'20 ->

12'40.4 - 12'42.8

i would suggest that el g will never come close to the 5k WR, let alone even crack 12'40

1 guideline - he needs to break the 3k WR, before we can even consider him even the slightest threat to kenny in a 5k WR race

[eldrick]

Re: bekele, shaheen-cherono-elg 5k

a few more figures, which might be of slight interest

i suppose el g will run a lot of 3k's next year to gauge his 5k potential

well,here are some estimates:

3'28 - 3'29 with

7'22 -> 12'46.1 - 12'48.6

7'21 -> 12'43.2 - 12'45.7

7'20 -> 12'40.3 - 12'42.8

7'19 -> 12'37.4 - 12'39.9

7'18 -> 12'34.5 - 12'37.0

the bad news i get for el g, is that he better be in ~ 7'18 shape before he can even dream of chasing the 5k WR

[Grazerism]

Re: bekele, shaheen-cherono-elg 5k

If Shaheen runs a disciplined race, he could beat them all.

[eldrick]

Re: bekele, shaheen-cherono-elg 5k

>If Shaheen runs a disciplined race, he could beat them all.

much as i'd love to see him do it, i'd reckon you better have big sub-7'25 ability before you even dream of lining up against kenny in a 5K WR attempt

looking at his figures:

http://www.tilastopaja.com/db/atm.asp?ID=41748

he has a long way to go

even if you give him rough figures of 3'33 \ 7'25, this still only comes out at at ~ 12'45

it really is difficult to make an argument for any guy to get within 5s of kenny currently

[EPelle]

Re: bekele, shaheen-cherono-elg 5k

Eldrick -- thanks for the figures. I see El G as a possible 12.43-12.45 performer, and think it will take something out-of-this-world to dip into the 12.30s.

[kuha]

Re: bekele, shaheen-cherono-elg 5k

On a good day, Kipchoge and/or Shihine could also be in there... If championship races tell us anything, it's that expectations are often turned on their heads...