bekele, shaheen-cherono-elg 5k

[Cyril]

Re: bekele, shaheen-cherono-elg 5k

Eldrick-

Again, I see where you get the numbers and they seem very much on. It just seems that we may be selling him a bit short - he is a bit different and we don't know how he will modify his training or how his body will adapt to the longer distances. The 1:43 sounds good but maybe he wasn't that fast. 7:20 sounds good but maybe he was faster. I would think that 1:45/3:26/7:18 would move your 5k numbers considerably.

Its all guessing - you are making very educated guesses - and very good ones but we'll still have to wait and see what he can come up with.

[eldrick]

Re: bekele, shaheen-cherono-elg 5k

>Eldrick-

Again, I see where you get the numbers and they seem very much on.
>It just seems that we may be selling him a bit short - he is a bit different
>and we don't know how he will modify his training or how his body will adapt to
>the longer distances. The 1:43 sounds good but maybe he wasn't that fast. 7:20
>sounds good but maybe he was faster. I would think that 1:45/3:26/7:18 would
>move your 5k numbers considerably.

Its all guessing - you are making very
>educated guesses - and very good ones but we'll still have to wait and see what
>he can come up with.


1'45 is too slow for him & doesn't give realistic results with his 3'26

but 1'44 does give just about ballpark figures for your estimates

1'44 \ 3'26 ->

2'12.6
7'16.3
12'36.9

i still think these are far to quick for him

[Cyril]

Re: bekele, shaheen-cherono-elg 5k

1'45 is too slow for him
>& doesn't give realistic results with his 3'26

I agree.

but 1'44 does give just about
>ballpark figures for your estimates

1'44 3'26 ->
>

2'12.6
7'16.3
12'36.9

i still think these are far to quick for him

That's my point we are looking at "ifs" with El G. We really don't know his numbers in events other than the 1500. 7:16/12:37 does sound very fast but we're talking about El G.! A second here or there throws the numbers around considerably in the 5. Let's wait and see.

Still the figures are very intriguing and really show the relationship between speed/endurance.

[eldrick]

Re: bekele, shaheen-cherono-elg 5k

>That's my point we are looking at "ifs" with El
>G. We really don't know his numbers in events other than the 1500. 7:16/12:37
>does sound very fast but we're talking about El G.! A second here or there
>throws the numbers around considerably in the 5. Let's wait and see.

people accuse me of being no. dependent, but my head is grounded in reality

i've seen all virtually all el g's big races & i can firmly state IMHO that there wasn't a hope in hell that he could run those in his 3'26 prime

those figures were based on a 1'44 supposed PB at the time - no way he was that slow !

i use cram as some evidence - he was a slower version of el g - no blistering ovett finish over 200, but long 400 out sustained burst - cram's best race was his 3'46.32 mile ( using accepted conversion of 1.08 = ~ 3'29.6 ) - he had 53s last lap

el g in his fast races : 3'26 - 3'27 finished with similar 53s last laps

so cram a "strength" (not "speed" runner) finishes with a 53 in a 3'29+, whereas el g a similar style of guy finishes with 53 in races 3s quicker

cram had a 1'42.88 PB that season - running it obviously again on strength

on cram's 800 performance, i find it impossible to believe el g was only a 1'44 guy at the time

he must have been at least in cram's ballpark, so i reckon 1'43 is much more likely as his PB ( & by inference his longer distance times become more like 7'20 & high 12'4x - which are much more likely on watching the races)

[Cyril]

Re: bekele, shaheen-cherono-elg 5k

Eldrick-

I'm not one of those accusing you of being number dependant. I do think you have a strong grasp on reality - almost to a fault. The numbers are very much on-the-money and extremely accurate. I think it is very likely that your El G. numbers are also spot-on but, I think there is still A LITTLE more mystery with him than the others. I would agree 12:44 sounds more realistic for him than 12:39 but that is not to say that he won't run 12:39, just that (looking at the numbers) we don't expect him to run that fast.