WR Prediction Contest

[5k Guy]

Ok since its off season for most in T&F here is a contest to occupy your time. Predict the year in which the following barriers will be broken in each of these men's track and field events.

I will check back after the last barrier is broken to count up who had the most right, and who was off by the least years in total. Then I will give you the coveted Golden Prognosticator Award (to be named at a later date).

100m 9.75
200m 19.00
400m 43.00
800m 1:40
1500m 3:25
5000m 12:30
10,000m 26:00
Marathon 2:00:00
110H 12.90
400H 46.50
50k W 3:35:00
20k W 1:17:00
HJ 2.50m
LJ 9.00m
DT 75.00m
Jav 100.00m
TJ 18.30m
SP 23.50m
Hammer 87.00m
Dec 9100 points
PV 6.25m

Let the games begin.....

(I may need the assistance of some young people to ensure that one of us is still around to tally the results.)

[tafnut]

Re: WR Prediction Contest

"I will check back after the last barrier is broken"

and a TAFNY nomination goes to 5KG for 'Most Optimistic Promise Made'

[The King]

Re: WR Prediction Contest

Hmmm...let me see...ok here we go:

100m 9.75 (2005)
200m 19.00 (2011)
400m 43.00 (2012)
800m 1:40 (2020)
1500m 3:25 (2015)
5000m 12:30 (2007)
10,000m 26:00 (2013)
Marathon 2:00:00 (2019)
110H 12.90 (2006)
400H 46.50 (2016)
50kW 3:35:00 (2012)
20kW 1:17:00 (2009)
HJ 2.50m (2023)
LJ 9.00m (2012)
DT 75.00m (2015)
Jav 100.00m (2014)
TJ 18.30m (2012)
SP 23.50m (2014)
Hammer 87.00m (2008)
Dec 9100 points (2005)

[Jack Slocombe]

Re: WR Prediction Contest

Hey.....where's the PV?

[5k Guy]

Re: WR Prediction Contest

Oversight in my transcription.

PV 6.25m

will edit original post to include

[Pego]

Re: WR Prediction Contest

Nobody alive will collect. 200, the Marathon and HJ, I am afraid may never get below the mark you propose.

[5k Guy]

Re: WR Prediction Contest

<<< I am afraid may never get below the mark you propose >>>

Pego, my friend, you sound an awful lot like those doctors and scientists 75 years ago who proclaimed it was impossible for a man to go below 4:00 for a mile or the engineer who "proved" that a bumble bee cannot fly.

Its just a matter of evolution, training, and belief that it is possible. It may take a while for some of these to happen but they all will if mankind is around long enough (but thats another debate).

[tafnut]

Re: WR Prediction Contest

Another way to look at this (and it's been done many times before, but it's still 'interesting') is to ask what will WR's look like in 2050 (f'rinstance). 'Ever' is undoable, because we have no way of forseeing what genetic engineering will be capable of.

Here's some guesses:

100: 9.60
1500: 3:20
Marathon: 2:02
HJ: 8-6
LJ: 31'

etc.

[Jon]

Re: WR Prediction Contest

>Another way to look at this....


...would be to put them in the order of which events we think would be broken first through to the ones we think would be last to go. (Just an idea).

[5k Guy]

Re: WR Prediction Contest

When looking at a 2:00 Marathon consider the following:

22 years ago Alberto Salazar was the Marathon WR (2:08 low) holder with the ability to run 4:53 per mile for a marathon and 4:25 per mile for a 10k.

20 years later Terget was the WR holder (2:04 high) with the ability to run 4:45 per mile for the marathon and 4:17 per mile for a 10k.

This trend would seem to indicate that a 2:00 marathoner (4:35 per mile pace) may also be a 25:45 10k runner (4:08 per mile).

Given the progression over the last 25 years in the marathon and 10k and consistency some have been able to obtain around the 2:06 area (Rutto) I think it is logical that 2:00 marathon barrier will be broken before 2050 and probably before 2030.

I would expect it is somewhat possible that the WR will be moved to the low 2:04 to high 2:03 in the next 4 years by either Geb or Bekele.

[Jon]

Re: WR Prediction Contest

I remember someone else saying (probably Eldy) that an athlete would have to be at the 26:00 level (for 10km) if they want to stand a chance of breaking 2:00. I think Bekele could maybe get down to the 26:10 - 26:15 level over the next couple years and then if he has a shot at the Marathon then 2:02 - 2:03 seems about right.

But given all the guys bunched up at the 2:06 mark on the all-time lists, it would be good to see an 'out-there' mark of below 2:04 to REALLY give the top guys something to think about.

[tafnut]

Re: WR Prediction Contest

>>But given all the guys bunched up at the 2:06 mark on the>all-time lists, it would be good to see an 'out-there' mark of below 2:04 to
>REALLY give the top guys something to think about.

I have absolutely no empirical evidence to back this up, but it certainly seems that in my fantime in the sport (68-p), that there really seems to be plateaus in events, where it seems sort sort of contemporary limit has been reached, and then suddenly there's a spate of radically better marks by a diverse group of athletes. This makes one think there really is a large psychological factor in the WR inprovement dynamic. Marathoners would only have to see and believe that 2:00 is eminently doable, before they will train the minds and bodies to do it.

[Jon]

Re: WR Prediction Contest

>Marathoners would only have to see and believe that 2:00 is eminently doable,
>before they will train the minds and bodies to do it.



Completely agree there, and that's precisely what has happened in the women's marathon. Looking at the alltime lists for women's marathon, it's a wonder Kristiansen's WR lasted so long (13 years). But once Tegla Loroupe broke it, within a couple years we saw the first sub-2:20 (Takahashi), closely followed by the first sub-2:19. Paula took it even further, and now we have five women who have ran under 2:20 - all within the last four years! The standard has dramatically increased over the past few years - 37 of the top 50 performances all-time, have been acheived since 2000!

So if Geb, followed by Bekele, could start taking bitesized chunks off the men's WR, then the 2:00 barrier would be well broken by 2050.

[Pego]

Re: WR Prediction Contest

<you sound an awful lot like those doctors and scientists 75 years ago who proclaimed it was impossible for a man to go below 4:00 for a mile or the engineer who "proved" that a bumble bee cannot fly.>

There were also people who declared that "everything had already been invented" over a hundred years ago, an obvious nonsense. That does not mean that people don't have limits, they do, the question is what they are. I'd like to qualify my statement of HJ. With the current technique, I don't think 250 is doable. As far as 200 under 19 or under 2 hour marathon, I don't think anybody alive today will see it.

[tafnut]

Re: WR Prediction Contest

>>That does not mean that people don't have limits, they do, the question is what they are.

but I would counter by saying that whatever we might now consider limits, really aren't, because we have no idea what kind of changes genengineering will bring.