The Great 800 Showdown

[JohnG]

A twist on previous discussions: Let's assume that the all-time greats of the last, say 30 years, lined up against each other. Imagine all have equal ability and are capable of running in perfect conditions with pacemakers, 1:41. It's an Olympic final. Given the preferred tactics and big-race temperaments of the participants how does the race unfold (spilts etc), who wins and what's the time?

Random lane order:
Kipketer
Coe
Juantorena
Cruz
Boit
Borzakovskiy
Ovett
Ereng
Konchellah

[eldrick]

i havea sneaky feeling ereng surges past them in the stretch - i'll never forget what he did to a near 1'43-flat barbosa in that indoor final - it's possibly best 800 performance i ever saw

[tandfman]

And I have a sneaky feeling that Snell, Doubell, and Whitfield might somehow find their way into that final.

[SQUACKEE]

I like that Cuba dude.

[dukehjsteve]

COE

[trackworld]

If his malaria doesn't flare-up, Kipketer

[Hector Dole]

COE

Coe finished second in three straight major 800m championships (two OG's plus the '82 Euros) during the peak years of his career. I don't know who would win this race, but I doubt it would be Coe.

[SQUACKEE]

If his malaria doesn't flare-up, Kipketer

I love kip but with the heats and such i see him floating out there in 49 and change but he is caught and passed on the last 100 by that Cuba dude. Or he isnt and im talking out of my ass.

[kuha]

"Imagine all have equal ability"

Cool! A ten-way tie for first!

[dukehjsteve]

COE

Coe finished second in three straight major 800m championships (two OG's plus the '82 Euros) during the peak years of his career. I don't know who would win this race, but I doubt it would be Coe.

He's due, he's due....

[eldrick]

If his malaria doesn't flare-up, Kipketer

I love kip but with the heats and such i see him floating out there in 49 and change but he is caught and passed on the last 100 by that Cuba dude. Or he isnt and im talking out of my ass.

he ran solo 1'43.9i & 1'42.6i two days later - at his peak, i doubt heats represented a problem

[JohnG]

"Imagine all have equal ability"

Cool! A ten-way tie for first!

Assuming they all cope equally well with the pressure, make no tactical mistakes and race over the worlds first 800m track with no bends, then you're absolutely right.

This is a very serious subject and I won't stand for any flippant remarks!!!!!!

[Daisy]

This is a very serious subject and I won't stand for any flippant remarks!!!!!!

Its clear to me that Borzakovskiy and Ereng would take the lead early fighting for the inside line and going through 400m in 48.

After that i'm sure the pack will start to real them in. With 300m to go Ovett finds himself boxed in and gives Billy Mills a huge shove as he attempts to get to the front.

With 50m to go Ovett looking good for win waving down the home straight but hold on.

IT'S MILLS, IT'S MILLS, IT'S MILLS!!!

[JohnG]

Daisy is actually relaying to us David Coleman's commentary (he also refers earlier to Ereng as Kiprotich). I'll come back to you with a more accurate description of the race later.

But first here's some background: (in my parallel universe all 9 athletes have been magically taken from the year they peaked as an 800m runner to the 9 lane London Olympic venue).

Kipketer (97 vintage) is 24 and is in his 4th year as one of the world’s best. He’s a joint favourite with Coe, who is the only person he’s worried about. Calmness personified, he can win off a fast or slow pace. Having seen the draw he is worried about being boxed and has decided that he will drop back at the break and find space on the outside down the back straight. He’ll watch Coe for the first 400. He’s not sure if he can outkick him if it is left to the last 100m so, he plans on getting a jump on him with 200 to go.

Coe (81 vintage) is also 24 and in his 4th year amongst the elite. Having started as a front runner with a tendency to die in the last 100, he has developed a fearsome kick and enters the race with a confidence boosting 400 pb. Fears Kipketer and, in a slow, physical race, Ovett. Worried about the physical nature of a championship race and will focus on staying clear of trouble for the first 400. If it’s slow he’ll kick at 300 to go; if it’s fast he’ll plan to be on the leader’s shoulder off the final bend.

Juantorena (77 vintage) is 26 and in only his second year as an 800 runner. Runs the race like an extended sprint. Expects Cruz or Boit to take it out but plans to be in the lead no later than the 600m mark.

Cruz (84 vintage), emerged last year as a committed front runner who usually was picked off in the final 50m. Older and wiser, he’s now 21 and although he needs a fast pace, will let Boit or Juantorena lead.

Boit (77 vintage) is considered a veteran at 28. Expected to lead but not win. Nevertheless there are signs that he may be entering the form of his life. He thinks that having Cruz and Juantorena in the race increases his chances.

Borzakovskiy (04 vintage) hasn’t fulfilled his potential due to a tendency to mis-time his runs and the lack of a killer instinct. Everyone else knows however, that is he got a clear run in a fast race his even split tactics might pay off. He’s now 23 and there’s a feeling of “now or never”.

Ovett (78 vintage) was a promising 800 runner who moved up last season to 1500. Now 22 he has untapped potential at 800 but the general feeling is that if it’s fast he won’t feature. If it becomes a kicker’s race however ………………… Treating the race as a warm up for his main event later in the week. Crowd’s favourite but UK press are rooting for Coe.

Ereng (88 vintage) is a complete novice and unknown quantity. Not quick over the first half he’ll hang on and hope to close in the latter stages. Only Eldrick has noted his potential. Came third in Kenyan trials behind Bit and winner, Konchellah

Konchellah got arrested on the warm-up track for reasons that are not yet known and does not start.

[SQUACKEE]

If his malaria doesn't flare-up, Kipketer

I love kip but with the heats and such i see him floating out there in 49 and change but he is caught and passed on the last 100 by that Cuba dude. Or he isnt and im talking out of my ass.

he ran solo 1'43.9i & 1'42.6i two days later - at his peak, i doubt heats represented a problem

And you gotta add one more heat. Im not saying he's gonna bomb out. Im saying he's not gonna run 1:41.1 because if he does theres no doubt he'll win.

If he instead runs mid 42 you gotta open the door for at least a few guys.

And with all those "kickers" salivating for the gold i think Kip needs at least a 5m lead at the top of the last straight. In an olympic final i dont know if theyre gonna give that up.

Id pay a lot of money to see this race. Is it on the archives on wcsn?