First American to break 30:00, 28:00 in 10,000m?

[eldrick]

his current best 2 times are 3'34/8'07

the best times i get extrapolated for this ( assuming he runs the other distances "just as well" ) are

~ 7'31, 13'01, 27'21

[26mi235]

Tegenkamp in 2009

I don't think Teg runs the 10,000.

With his marks getting down to 3:34/8:07(~7:31)/13:04 he seems to be pushing the fast end of the spectrum, not the long end. Also, he is pretty tall, which is not a big plus in the 10,000, although it has been done.

I had an interesting 'observation' last month when looking at Footlocker footage (HS champ race in US). Tengenkamp was running with Dobson and was WAY shorter, looking like 5'7" but not sure. He is now about 6'1-2". That is a lot to grow in college and apparently a key reason why when he tried to do high mileage he came up injured.

The link here is that his training stays in the (high) double digits and he looks a little more the 5000 type than the 10,000. His current 5000 PR of 13:04 and his 'possible' future one ~12:58 put him right in line with the 5000/10,000 projection of 28:00 (2 x 5000time + 1 min).

[rikitikitavi]

Tegenkamp in 2009

I don't think Teg runs the 10,000.

[Bruce Kritzler]

Add Alan Webb's name to the list of Americans who could break 27. Probably won't happen, but off his debut performance....

[BYU grad]

Very optimistic, considering that Rupp has improved his 5000m PB by 7+ seconds since 2004 and has yet to break 13;30.

But Rupp ran 27:33.48 before his 21st birthday. There's no doubt in my mind that he has the potential to go under 27. The greater uncertainty is whether he'll be the first American to do so.

I like to be optimistic. BTW didn't say Rupp was a sure thing to break 27:00, only a maybe...but, like Tandfman says (above) he has the potential.

[Master Po]

Only two US born athletes have run under 27;30 (Nenow and Virgin) and their bests were in 1980 and '86.

I thought "Salazar" then realized he may have been born in Cuba, which indeed he was. Anyone know at what age he moved to the US?

One biographical sketch I have of Salazar isn't precise on this, but describes the family's move from Cuba to the USA in such a way that it sounds like they moved in 1960, which would make Salazar about 2yo.

[DrJay]

Only two US born athletes have run under 27;30 (Nenow and Virgin) and their bests were in 1980 and '86.

I thought "Salazar" then realized he may have been born in Cuba, which indeed he was. Anyone know at what age he moved to the US?

[ed gee]

Rupp has not done anything that would lead me to think he can run remotely close to 27 minutes for 10,000 meters. His 27;33 is an outlier compared to anything else he has done.

Only ~eight non-Africans have run under 27;20 and none have been close to breaking 27.

27:08.23 Arturo Barrios MEX 12 12 1962 1 Berlin 18 08 1989

27:12.47 António Pinto POR 22 03 1966 3 Stockholm 30 07 1999

27:13.81 Fernando Mamede POR 01 11 1951 1 Stockholm 02 07 1984

27:14.44 Fabián Roncero ESP 19 10 1970 1r1 Lisboa 04 04 1998

27:16.50 Salvatore Antibo ITA 07 02 1962 1 Helsinki 29 06 1989

27:17.48 Carlos Lopes POR 18 02 1947 2 Stockholm 02 07 1984

27:18.14 Jon Brown GBR 27 02 1971 4 Bruxelles 28 08 1998

27:18.59 Armando Quintanilla MEX 19 04 1968 3 Oslo 22 07 1994

27:20.56 Mark Nenow USA 16 11 1957 1 Bruxelles 05 09 1986

[tandfman]

Very optimistic, considering that Rupp has improved his 5000m PB by 7+ seconds since 2004 and has yet to break 13;30.

But Rupp ran 27:33.48 before his 21st birthday. There's no doubt in my mind that he has the potential to go under 27. The greater uncertainty is whether he'll be the first American to do so.

[EPelle]

Yep.

[ed gee]

Very optimistic, considering that Rupp has improved his 5000m PB by 7+ seconds since 2004 and has yet to break 13;30.

Only two US born athletes have run under 27;30 (Nenow and Virgin) and their bests were in 1980 and '86.

I would be pleasantly surprised if Rupp and/or Ritz ever run under 27;20.

IMO, Bernard Lagat is the US runner most capable of breaking 27.

Isn' t the fastest non-African born 10,000 meter runner still Arturo Barrios from 1989?

[BYU grad]

Re: who might break 27:00....I agree Tegenkamp has a good chance if he decides to give the 10,000m a serious try...and 2009 sounds about right...after a good 5,000m result in Bejing. Teg has the speed and the talent to do it...just needs to train for more strength and get in the Brussels race!

Rupp....yes, is a "maybe", Ritz also a maybe and Ryan Hall a maybe, except he probably won't focus on 10,000m. I think Hall could run 27:20-25 off his marathon training, but would have to concentrate on the event exactly 20 miles short of his specialty to approach 27:00 or under.

[BYU grad]

Thanks Bambam, I'll check out [email protected].

[tandfman]

Maybe Rupp.

[slowcat]

Tegenkamp in 2009