What must Usain do?

[EPelle]

Repeating, for the final time:

His body did not run the average of 13,73-13,80 seconds/100m over the entire distance of either 2.000m or 3.000m - no matter what a conversion table states. He ran 2.000m at 14,24/56,96 pace and 3.000m at 14,77/59,08 pace. Nothing complicated. A point is attempting to be made that had El Guerrouj been able to run week-in and week-out at 13,73-13,80 pace, he:d have had a remarkable ability to recover and run fast - elements required for a triple at the Olympic Games. Not going to find it in listing a 2.000m and a 3.000m for value, when the paces are so much slower.

woud anyone in their sane mind believe that if he'd lined up for a 1500 instead of 2k/3k in the form exhibited over 3k & 2k that he woudn't have gone 3'26/3'37 ?!

actually, scrub that question - there cannot be anyone that stoopid on this board that they woud even question his ability to do it

Nope. It would be silly of anyone to believe he couldn:t run between 3.26 and 3.37, as noted.

[joeltetreault]

i see you are still firing on all 1 1/2 cylinders

3:43.13 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 1 Roma 07.07.1999

3:27.65 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 1 Sevilla 24.08.1999

7:23.09 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 1 Bruxelles 03.09.1999

4:44.79 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 1 Berlin 07.09.1999

look at last 3 & convert last 2 to 1500 times using iaaf tables

To be totally accurate, even if you assume that he could have run 3:27 in place of the final two performances, the 4 marks are stretched over 2 months, which makes for an average of 3:27 every two weeks or so, not week/in, week/out which I take to mean in the span of four weeks. Given the long break he has between races, I don't think it necessarily follows that he could have run similar performances in a much more compressed time (one week), especially where the 800m semis don't leave a lot of room for error (ie. he would have to run fairly fast to make the final).

[eldrick]

now it's been edited to 3'26/3'27, same question is asked again

woud anyone be idiotic enough to believe that hicham in 4'44/7'23 shape not be able to run 3'26/3'27 if he'd run 1500s instead of 2k/3k on those occasions ?

A point is attempting to be made that had El Guerrouj been able to run week-in and week-out at 13,73-13,80 pace, he:d have had a remarkable ability to recover and run fast - elements required for a triple at the Olympic Games. Not going to find it in listing a 2.000m and a 3.000m for value, when the paces are so much slower

err...

please explain then why kennster who ran 26'25 this year didn't have the indicated quick enough pace exhibited in his average pace of that 10k to finish off a 5k in 7'36/4'56/2'25/53.8 ?

obviously, "listing a 10k for value" was completely pointless in predicting a 5k for him when pace in a 10k is so much slower ???

[eldrick]

To be totally accurate, even if you assume that he could have run 3:27 in place of the final two performances...

i did say look at timespan of last 3 races...

my definition of week in/week out differs from yours - 3 weeks is sufficient for my definition ( & he stopped there as that was last big meet on euro circuit )

[EPelle]

Alas, El Guerrouj didn:t run 2.000m or 3.000m pace at 1.500m pace. Could he have dropped in 3.26 or 3.27? Likely. Did he? No, not once during that time frame, as he chose to run 2.000m and 3.000m - races which equate to a time equivalent of 3.26 and/or 3.27, but races which did not require his body to put in the work or suffer the consequences thereof in recovery from such pacing. By running "crap pacing", he didn:t have to put in the requisite hard splits and then kick like is required of the equivalent at the 1.500m distance.

As a matter of fact, El Guerrouj, who has nothing to do with this thread about Usain Bolt, only once actually did RUN 1.500m at/under 3.27,00 "week-out", but not "week-in", back in 2002, when he was able to put three under his belt with several weeks between those efforts.

To define "week-in" and "week-out" based on three races in 1999 -- and done so after the fact is convenient.

[joeltetreault]

To be totally accurate, even if you assume that he could have run 3:27 in place of the final two performances...

i did say look at timespan of last 3 races...

my definition of week in/week out differs from yours - 3 weeks is sufficient for my definition ( & he stopped there as that was last big meet on euro circuit )

Sorry I missed your subsequent post. I agree those are great performances back to back, but I have trouble mapping that into three Olympic golds when you consider the heats and semis he would have to run, and inevitably some of those races are going to have to be on the same day. If you take this year's Olympic schedule he'd have to do:

Day1: 1500 qf
Day2: rest
Day3: 1500 semi
Day4: rest
Day5: 1500 final
Day6: 800 heat followed by 5000m semi an hour later
Day7: 800 semi
Day8: rest
Day9: 800 final followed by 5000m final 40min later

That's grueling! Especially what he needs to accomplish on Day 9 after a full week of racing.

By the time he got to the 5000 final, I don't think he'd be able to match Bekele over a 4:56 final 2k. Or even in 2004, I am not sure he would have the same wheels remaining for the 5000 to overtake Bekele in a tactical race, nevermind the fact that the m5000 immediately followed the m800 in the 2004 program.

The 800 would also be problematic all to itself since I don't think he is the same speed as the other 800 guys - true he could probably run 1:43+ but the race won't be a time trial and it is more like that the 400-800 types would go by him in the last 50m. But just my opinion! I think if anyone could pull off this type of triple in the last twenty years it would be him, then Aouita. Morceli would be out because of how fast the 1996 800m Oly final was. (I'm assuming they run against people from their era and you take the easiest Oly year to win all three events at).

[eldrick]

Alas, El Guerrouj didn:t run 2.000m or 3.000m pace at 1.500m pace

so you think it's "likely" he woud have gone 3'26/3'27 on those occasions of running 2k/3k

now you've given your answer, why are you wasting my time with hogwash about slower pacing in 2k/3k ???

as for "crap" pacing, either you didn't see that 3k or didn't understand what it did to him

iirc they went out far too slow, something like 2'29/2'30 ( i remember thinking record attempt is dead, just cruise in for a 7'25 - 7'27 & have another go next year ) & then put in something like an incredible 2'23/2'24 next km leaving him comletely wasted for last 1k & running out of gas on last lap

if you don't think that 2'23/2'24 isn't a "hard split" then you are dreaming -i've only seen him ever put in similar effort just once in his career - the initial 1200m in rieti

[eldrick]

Sorry I missed your subsequent post. I agree those are great performances back to back, but I have trouble mapping that into three Olympic golds when you consider the heats and semis he would have to run,...

i did say it all depended on the timetable

he woudn't have attempted it as i can never recall a meet where you didn't have to run 2 races in 1 day involving 800/1500/5k ( & as you've posted a sample timetable to illustrate )

he was capable of 1'43 & he'd need a fast race, but in slow tactical 800s it comes down to 400 speed - he probably was 47-high whereas some of the others were likely 46-high/low-47 - he's not going to outkick them in a race going out in 53/54