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What coud/woud Keino's 3'34.9A been worth at sea-level ?

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  • What coud/woud Keino's 3'34.9A been worth at sea-level ?

    let's see...
    0
    3'34.0 - 3'35.0
    0%
    0
    3'33.0 - 3'34.0
    0%
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    3'32.0 - 3'33.0
    0%
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    3'31.0 - 3'32.0
    0%
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    3'30.0 - 3'31.0
    0%
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    3'29.0 - 3'30.0
    0%
    0
    <3'29.0
    0%
    0

  • #2
    does anyone have this book ?

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/3046228/Lore- ... f-Contents

    section 9.5.3 ( page 573 ) promises a possible answer

    Comment


    • #3
      Keino, at MLK International Freedom Games two years after OG, eaten up by Liquori. Keino went out at WR pace, split ca 59 3/10, 1.56,6, 2.39, 2.55 5/10 then ate it... badly. His body wasn't going to give him that 3.30-3.32. Built up early lead in South Lake Tahoe (altitude) the year before the same way as this race.

      http://www.racingsnailclub.com/video/19 ... es1500.wmv

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      • #4
        the keino of '70 was a far different animal from that of '68...

        Comment


        • #5
          You're right! He became a steeplechaser in 1972.

          Good bio on Keino:
          http://external.barker.nsw.edu.au/athle ... 0Keino.doc

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          • #6
            3:34.x

            I'm not convinced, after all these years, that Keino was affected as much as everyone believes all runners should be.

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            • #7
              3:33. something, during that race, if at sea level, with Ryun chasing him home.

              Comment


              • #8
                this is the data source in noakes's book - it looks like the only relevant study anybody has done

                this peronnet guy is very respected in his field, but his figures are overly optimistic - however, if you add the ~ 2s for reduced air-resistance for 1500m race at mexico ( ? he forgot to add - use jrm's 400m calculator ), it gives a 3'29

                "The effect on performance is shown on a table which went to the ACTrun email group. It's from 'A theoretical analysis of the effect of altitude on running performance' - Peronnet et al. J Appl Physiol.1991; 70: 399-404.

                Here it is, for distances of 800 metres and over:
                • Location + altitude in metres 800m 1,500m 5,000m 10,000m Marathon
                  Sea Level - 0 1:41.73 3:29.46 12:58.39 27:08.23 2:06:50.00
                  Munich - 520 1:42.11 3:31.24 13:09.07 27:32.52 2:08:57.58
                  Calgary - 1,045 1:42.40 3:32.76 13:18.61 27:54.36 2:10:52.93
                  Albuquerque - 1,507 1:42.73 3:34.33 13:28.14 28:15.97 2:12:46.21
                  Colorado Springs - 1,823 1:43.07 3:35.71 13:36.16 28:34.00 2:14:19.67
                  Mexico City - 2,240 1:43.71 3:38.10 13:49.58 29:03.89 2:16:53.15
                  La Paz - 3,658 1:48.67 3:54.10 15:14.93 32:10.83 2:32:37.87
                  4,000 1:50.78 4:00.64 15:49.28 33:25.38 2:38:52.13
                "

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                • #9
                  The trouble with ANY formula is that it does not take into consideration that humans are not automatons. They are all uniquely different and respond differently in different circumstances. I don't think I'm being a USAian homer by saying that the altitude was MUCH more detrimental to Ryun than Keino. Keino MAY have been slowed .5 seconds and Ryun 1.5 seconds. That said, I think Keino DID have Ryun's number that day. He simply was not the machine he was in 1967, and Keino was indeed a beast in 1968.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    For me, all the empirical evidence says that Keino's physiology didn't feel much of anything at Mexico City (in the 1500, not the longer events).

                    That also means that he would get some of the same benefits as sprinters did, cutting through thinner air. So one might even argue that he would have been slower at sea level!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      jrm does do a 400m calc which accounts for that part

                      http://myweb.lmu.edu/jmureika/track/wind/400alt.html

                      3'34.9 is 57.3s/400m

                      input that for mexico -> 57.8 basic

                      or scaled up to 3.75 laps gives advantage of 1.875s

                      obviously, everyone in field got same/similar advantage of this

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        abstract for perronet's article

                        http://jap.physiology.org/cgi/content/abstract/70/1/399

                        A theoretical analysis of the effect of altitude on running performance is presented using a mathematical model we have recently described and validated (J. Appl. Physiol. 67: 453-465, 1989). This model relates the average power output available over a given running time for a given combination of anaerobic capacity, maximal aerobic power, and endurance capability. For short sprinting distances, the contribution of aerobic metabolism to the energy requirement is small and the speed sustained is high. The reduction of maximal aerobic power with altitude is, thus, negligible, whereas the reduction of aerodynamic resistance is beneficial. Accordingly the performance steadily increases with altitude (e.g., average speed for 100 m at Mexico City is 101.9% of the average speed at sea level). On the other hand, the reduction in maximal aerobic power with altitude is associated with a reduction in performance over middle and long distances (800 m to marathon). For 400 m an improvement in performance is observed up to an altitude of approximately 2,400-2,500 m (average speed approximately 101.4% of sea level speed). Beyond this altitude the reduction in air density cannot compensate for the reduction in maximal aerobic power, and the performance deteriorates. Tables of performances equivalent to the current world records for selected altitudes ranging from 0 to 4,000 m are proposed

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Marlow
                          I don't think I'm being a USAian homer by saying that the altitude was MUCH more detrimental to Ryun than Keino. Keino MAY have been slowed .5 seconds and Ryun 1.5 seconds.
                          You're not. In fact, Ryun appeared to have attempted to make up for any differential by training in Flagstaff prior to the 1968 Olympics - a hope that he'd have a least a semblance of what the Mexico City races would feel like. I thought some athletes protested of the choice of Mexico City for the Games, stating that athletes like the Kenyans had an altitude-training advantage.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by gh
                            For me, all the empirical evidence says that Keino's physiology didn't feel much of anything at Mexico City (in the 1500, not the longer events).

                            That also means that he would get some of the same benefits as sprinters did, cutting through thinner air. So one might even argue that he would have been slower at sea level!
                            Yes. And I fully admit that it was gh who brought me around to this point a few years ago.

                            It's really not rocket science... We all "know" that sprinters up to about 400 meters are significantly aided by the thinner air. And we "know" that at 800m distance, the effect for most runners is a wash--the reduced air resistance and the reduced amount of oxygen in the air balance each other out. And, we've also "known" that above 800 "all" performances are negatively impacted by the thinner air.

                            But, where is that dividing line between "a wash" at 800m and "a disadvantage" at longer distances?

                            Perhaps for some athletes, that dividing line is 700m; for others 785m, or even 875m. Our "thesis" is that, for Keino--for whatever unknown reason--that dividing line was way further out--maybe 1450m or, heck, from what he looked like crossing the line at Mexico City, 1650m. Who knows?

                            Keino clearly DID have such a dividing line, and it very clearly came well before the 5000m finish line!

                            However, the evidence at hand suggests very strongly that the altitude had absolutely minimal impact on him in the MC 1500 final.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Yes...That is why I hedged my bet/guess, by saying that Keino could have gone faster on that day at sea-level, IF REQUIRED...
                              I think he was unbeatable that day, and I think Ryun might have gone much faster at sea-level, and I think Keino would still have won.....thus, perhaps something under 3:34, but certainly not in the 3:30 range.

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