eldrick

[Texas]

Just so I can get a feel for how things really were/are....ok?

In your opinion what would Jesse Owens or any 9.4 guy from the 30's run the 100m in 2009.

How would the 4x1 team of...

Jesse Owens..Eulace Peacock..Mack Robinson..Ralph Metcalfe

do vs...

Nesta Carter..Michael Frater..Usain Bolt..Asafa Powell

Give me the order of finish, all things being equal

lane

1.Archie Hahn
2.Charles Paddock
3.Bob Hayes
4.Usain Bolt
5.Carl Lewis
6.Bobby Morrow
7.Valery Borzov
8.Jesse Owens
9.Bernie Wefers
10.Hal Davis

[paulthefan]

where is Charlie Paddock?

All other things being equal Id say that:
Owens/Peacock/Robinson/ Metcalfe beat the JAM team by a yard.

[Texas]

where is Charlie Paddock?

All other things being equal Id say that:
Owens/Peacock/Robinson/ Metcalfe beat the JAM team by a yard.

You don't see Paddock in lane two?

So none of those Jamaicans would have been 9.4ish sprinters back in the 30's?

[eldrick]

only question of interest to me is jesse

if he went 9.4

- add 0.24s for auto -> 9.64

- add difference to 100m from 100y : 100 - 91.44 = 8.56m & they normally cover last 10m of a 100m in about 0.88 - 0.90s = 0.75 - 0.77s ->

10.39 - 10.41

- then conversion from dirt/synthetic which i've seen as 1s/lap, therfore knock of 0.25s

-> ~ 10.14 - 10.16

i'd say somewhere between 10.1 - 10.2 if transported in a time-machine

[Texas]

only question of interest to me is jesse

if he went 9.4

- add 0.24s for auto -> 9.64

- add difference to 100m from 100y : 100 - 91.44 = 8.56m & they normally cover last 10m of a 100m in about 0.88 - 0.90s = 0.75 - 0.77s ->

10.39 - 10.41

- then conversion from dirt/synthetic which i've seen as 1s/lap, therfore knock of 0.25s

-> ~ 10.14 - 10.16

i'd say somewhere between 10.1 - 10.2 if transported in a time-machine

So Owens was in that 10.15 world....hmm?

I doubt you'll find this interesting but...

So what does Tyson Gay run in 1936?

[eldrick]

on dirt, maybe 8.9 & bolt obviously 8.8 ( hand times )

[eldrick]

tex

more interest is what potentially jesse wouda run if born in modern era

as you keep pointing out, the kids nowdas are bigger, meaner, uglier than ole days - due to cheap bargain buckets, etc

now, normally, each generation is ~ 1" taller than before & a generation is ~ 25y

jesse ran ~75y ago or about 3 generations ago & couda expected to be ~ 3" taller if born in '80s

he was ~ 5'9 in '36 & probably wouda been 6'0 if born in '80s

simplistic analysis is if he was just scaled up from 5'9 to 6'0 that suggested 10.15 woud be

~ (5'9/6'0) * 10.15 = 9.73

that may be optimistic ( but maybe not )

another more refined analysis suggests power doesn't keep up exactly with size increase & in that case a factor of ^(2/3) is better

that ->

~ (5'9/6'0)^(2/3) * 10.15 = 9.87

i think you have to go with him being at worse a high-9.8 guy if born in this era

[Texas]

tex

more interest is what potentially jesse wouda run if born in modern era

as you keep pointing out, the kids nowdas are bigger, meaner, uglier than ole days - due to cheap bargain buckets, etc

now, normally, each generation is ~ 1" taller than before & a generation is ~ 25y

jesse ran ~75y ago or about 3 generations ago & couda expected to be ~ 3" taller if born in '80s

he was ~ 5'9 in '36 & probably wouda been 6'0 if born in '80s

simplistic analysis is if he was just scaled up from 5'9 to 6'0 that suggested 10.15 woud be

~ (5'9/6'0) * 10.15 = 9.73

that may be optimistic ( but maybe not )

another more refined analysis suggests power doesn't keep up exactly with size increase & in that case a factor of ^(2/3) is better

that ->

~ (5'9/6'0)^(2/3) * 10.15 = 9.87

i think you have to go with him being at worse a high-9.8 guy if born in this era

Now we are no longer talking about Jesse Owens. We are talking about somebody totally different. If he were bigger maybe he's not as fast. I lost some speed when I bulked up for football.

We can put Hayes in 68 and Smith in 72 but we really can't take somebody from 1936 and put them in 2009 and come up with anything actually real. Keep in mind in 1936 there were few sprinters. Nothing like we see today. There could have been some kid on a plantation in Mississippi that could have blown Owens, Metcalfe etc away. He had to work instead. Today it's pretty hard to hide the speed.

[eldrick]

Now we are no longer talking about Jesse Owens. We are talking about somebody totally different. If he were bigger maybe he's not as fast. I lost some speed when I bulked up for football

that was addressed somewhat in last estimate using ^(2/3)

increase size/muscle but power increase doesn't keep up because of effect of bulk

whichever way you slice/dice it, he was an exceptional talent ( no matter who was lurking in a swamp )

high-9.8 makes him probably the 5th best guy in the world behind the big-3 & dix/thompson who shoud be low/mid-9.8 guys

[Texas]

Now we are no longer talking about Jesse Owens. We are talking about somebody totally different. If he were bigger maybe he's not as fast. I lost some speed when I bulked up for football

that was addressed somewhat in last estimate using ^(2/3)

increase size/muscle but power increase doesn't keep up because of effect of bulk

whichever way you slice/dice it, he was an exceptional talent ( no matter who was lurking in a swamp )

high-9.8 makes him probably the 5th best guy in the world behind the big-3 & dix/thompson who shoud be low/mid-9.8 guys

No doubt Owens was an amazing athlete. Fantastic long jumper! As just a sprinter he wasn't really all that dominate however. You could actually make a case for Metcalfe being his superior as a sprinter. He definitely was as an NCAA athlete. He was a double Oly silver medalist and came close to Owens in that 36 final. If he would have won?

[eldrick]

what's to say metcalfe wasn't also a high-9.8 guy ?

if you have genetic potential to run fast, rest is just training/nutrition/etc

america really does have enough population/talent pool to have had at least a coupla "equivalent" 9.8 guys/generation thruout history

[Texas]

what's to say metcalfe wasn't also a high-9.8 guy ?

if you have genetic potential to run fast, rest is just training/nutrition/etc

america really does have enough population/talent pool to have had at least a coupla "equivalent" 9.8 guys/generation thruout history

My problem is that I know there weren't all that many who could follow an athlectic career or go to college back then. So the "competition pool" was shallow. Tolan, Metcalfe,Owens and Peacock simply didn't have the flock of competitors like we saw later on. Look at TCU in 1936. Since the 60's they have had a ton of speed. To me it's all about competition. Look at Frankie Fredericks in Namibia. He could win their Nationals up into his what...50's? Jean Louis Ravelomantsoa in Madagascar had who pushing him? Would Owens etc be the stud we saw back then, if there had been as many speesters able to actually compete as we see today? There were how many sub 10.10 guys in 2008? How many sub 9.6/10.3 guys in 1936?

1936

1 Jesse Owens USA 10.2
2 Foy Draper USA 10.3
2 Sam Stoller USA 10.3
2 Ralph Metcalfe USA 10.3
5 Whitley Cox USA 10.4
5 Adrian Talley USA 10.4
5 Harvey Wallender USA 10.4
5 George Boone USA 10.4
5 Mack Robinson USA 10.4
10 Rozia Singletary USA 10.5

All he had to run was a 10.3=10.54 to be competitive.

Big difference in 2008

1 Tyson Gay USA 9.77
2 Travis Padgett USA 9.89
2 Darvis Patton USA 9.89
4 Walter Dix USA 9.91
5 Ivory Williams USA 9.94
6 Rodney Martin USA 9.95
7 Mark Jelks USA 9.99
8 Xavier Carter USA 10.00
9 Jeffery Demps USA 10.01
10 Leroy Dixon USA 10.02

[paulthefan]

My problem is that I know there weren't all that many who could follow an athlectic career or go to college back then. So the "competition pool" was shallow. ..

This is a good point, College is not just for students or student-athletes as it was in Jesse's day. It is also a place for just athletes. Curriculum have expanded to accommodate and grades are inflated to keep all on board.

Your placing of 1936 times besides 2007 is funny. Jesse beats Gay head to head.

[eldrick]

competition doesn't detract from intrinsic talent

if jesse had spent a college career running against 9.7 guys, it woudn't have stopped him running 9.4s

sprinters run flat-out

a guy breathing down your neck may squeeze out another few 100ths out of you, but you shoud still ran pretty damn fast with no one near

those guys also chased the clock...

[Texas]

competition doesn't detract from intrinsic talent

if jesse had spent a college career running against 9.7 guys, it woudn't have stopped him running 9.4s

sprinters run flat-out

a guy breathing down your neck may squeeze out another few 100ths out of you, but you shoud still ran pretty damn fast with no one near

these guys also chased the clock...

My point was do we see Owens rise above a flock of speedsters instead of just two...Metcalfe/Peacock. All he had to deal with was beating them. As we know he lost to them about as much as he beat them. What if there had been a dozen-sixteen 10.3ish guys in 36? Would Owens have stood out when we saw him struggle vs the two with his kind of speed.