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  • JRM
    replied
    Originally posted by 26mi235
    If you divide the polls into those that poll cell phones and those that do not, the ones that poll cell users are 5% higher -- do you really think that the landline group is the same as the much younger (and hipper?) cell-only crew? This is the last election that they make that mistake.
    Aha! Another Nate Silver fan.

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/ ... inued.html

    Leave a comment:


  • 26mi235
    replied
    Originally posted by Marlow
    Most polls had Obama with a 6% lead 52-46 several days ago, but they've already started to close together. I'm hoping that it gets down to 50-48 by tomorrow night, so we'll have a record turn-out, which I think favors Obama . . . a lot. If people think Obama's win is a done deal, that could increase the Pucker Factor a lot! :shock:
    "Narrowing" is hardly happening on the Fox poll and the one by Investors Business Daily, and even these are growing relative to the recent past. One poll showed tightening when a vastly under-sample 18-25 group was filtered (likely voter models) to be 75/25 M/O; about as likely as a regular on this board winning NYC next year.

    If you divide the polls into those that poll cell phones and those that do not, the ones that poll cell users are 5% higher -- do you really think that the landline group is the same as the much younger (and hipper?) cell-only crew? This is the last election that they make that mistake.

    Leave a comment:


  • mojo
    replied
    Thanks for the pic. i hope I am not the only one touched by it. Oh yeah you are all he-mans around here. :wink:

    Obama handles everything with such grace and strength. 8-)

    Both he and McCain must be exhausted but for Obama to have to deal with on top of everything else. :cry: :cry:


    I loved both his books but "Dreams of My Father" where he talks about his grandmother's life and her influence on him was very moving.

    I really wish his mother was here as well.

    Leave a comment:


  • jazzcyclist
    replied
    Originally posted by mojo
    I have heard his latest speech so many times I know most of it by heart but his latest in North Carolina was so strong. I teared up when he did talking about his grandmother.

    I have not felt this kind of connection to a public figure, especially a politician, ever. ops: 8-)

    I am too nervous to believe he is actually going to win- I mean I know he will but i am afraid he won't. :? :?
    Mojo, check out this picture of Obama talking about his grandmother today. I think it will move you.
    http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2008-1 ... cjh105.jpg

    Leave a comment:


  • mojo
    replied
    Originally posted by rasb
    350 - Obama, 188 - McCain.
    And if I thought that all 'Mericans watched the speech that Obama just gave in Cleveland, the numbers would be higher. Very, very powerful. And, yes, of course I realize it's only words, but "that one" is very, very bright.
    I have heard his latest speech so many times I know most of it by heart but his latest in North Carolina was so strong. I teared up when he did talking about his grandmother.

    I have not felt this kind of connection to a public figure, especially a politician, ever. ops: 8-)

    I am too nervous to believe he is actually going to win- I mean I know he will but i am afraid he won't. :? :?

    Leave a comment:


  • LongTimeSubscriber
    replied
    344 - Obama 190 - McCain

    I wouldn't be surprised to see one protest electoral vote for Al Gore

    Leave a comment:


  • Marlow
    replied
    Most polls had Obama with a 6% lead 52-46 several days ago, but they've already started to close together. I'm hoping that it gets down to 50-48 by tomorrow night, so we'll have a record turn-out, which I think favors Obama . . . a lot. If people think Obama's win is a done deal, that could increase the Pucker Factor a lot! :shock:

    Leave a comment:


  • rasb
    replied
    350 - Obama, 188 - McCain.
    And if I thought that all 'Mericans watched the speech that Obama just gave in Cleveland, the numbers would be higher. Very, very powerful. And, yes, of course I realize it's only words, but "that one" is very, very bright.

    Leave a comment:


  • JRM
    replied
    I just read an interesting tidbit: the election could be over shortly after 7pm EST, when the polls close in VA.

    If Obama takes the expected states on the east coast (New England, Tri-State, MD+DC), he'll get 117 EVs. Add in the other expected states in the mid-west and west (MI, IL, MN, WI, IA, NM, CA, OR, WA, HI), and he has 264.

    VA would give him 13 EVs. Even if he doesn't win all of ME's EVs, or even NM, it could be a done deal before us west coasters get home from work!

    Leave a comment:


  • lonewolf
    replied
    Ok, you heard it here first:
    McCain 272
    Obama 266

    :P :P

    Leave a comment:


  • Daisy
    replied
    Originally posted by gm
    MSNBC calls it: 1,026 Our Lord and Savior.... -425 That Old Man We Hate
    Fox has it as a statistical tie.

    Leave a comment:


  • gm
    replied
    Originally posted by gh
    Originally posted by dukehjsteve
    The chances of Garry allowing this are slim and none, and Slim just left town.
    Read the rules: this forum is down & dirty, for a few more days... do as you please on it

    (it =Forum, not Board).
    Oh, ok then.

    MSNBC calls it: 1,026 Our Lord and Savior.... -425 That Old Man We Hate

    Leave a comment:


  • JRM
    replied
    I say McCain doesn't break 200. I think it would be great if Obama took AZ as well (that may be as likely as GA at this point).

    Leave a comment:


  • Mighty Favog
    replied
    I'm going all-in. 404 to 134. Side bet: Georgia goes Obama.

    Leave a comment:


  • dukehjsteve
    replied
    I like round #'s:

    O 300

    M 238

    Leave a comment:

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