Who will be the Democratic Nominee?

[Atticus]

Biden and Bernie are done. Warren is damaged goods to many. Buttigieg is too nice a guy.

You know who I like? Kamala Effin Harris!

[Conor Dary]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilve...31180519337984

[Tuariki]

Pity someone can’t find a “genuine” fake 1986 birth certificate for AOC

[mump boy]

Warren would be my favourite and i don't think her damage is insurmountable but Harris certainly has the aura of a winner and i don't think Trump can rattle her

But we're only 1 debate down, everything could change after July 31st

[jeremyp]

Do not rule out Biden. One debate means nothing. This is a marathon and calling the winner in the first few miles is nonsensical. If Trump is to be beaten the party has to put forth a moderate. Pete is not ready for Prime Time now, but he is the most likeable of the challengers and the least politic. Harris was a prosecutor and A.G. which means stuff will be brought up, such as refusing to use death penalty against a cop killer. Warren is just too busy with plans. Bernie needs to be put out to pasture.

[LopenUupunut]

I would not count either Biden or Bernie out. They're dropping in the polls, but they're still leading; and Biden has two pretty good sources of solid support, 1) conservative/older Democrats and 2) Democrats who just want someone, anyone, to beat Trump and think Biden has the best chance (the "electability" voters). The latter could certainly change if Biden is weak in future debates (which is very possible, even likely), but even so he still has a pretty good base.

Bernie is pretty much running as a factional candidate but he actually has quite good favorables outside his base, and if Biden's support drops I suspect more of his people would move in the Bernie camp than seems intuitive thinking just in terms of left/right. They have different policies and different rhetoric but also have plenty in common (older, big names, white, male, Democrats), and the "Biden can beat Trump" people would look at the national polls and see Sanders polling next-best against Trump. (Sanders does poll next-best against Trump, largely because of his name recognition, but that's a pretty subtle point to appreciate. And the electability people are basically looking for a straight white guy anyway, which Sanders is and Harris, Warren, Booker and Buttigieg aren't.)

Not saying one of them will win; it certainly wouldn't surprise me if neither of them ended up making a real splash; but it also wouldn't surprise me if one of them did get nominated.

[Atticus]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilve...31180519337984

Good points made there.
I also forgot about Booker - he could emerge as the top one.

[tandfman]

It occurred to me the other day that if they could agree to cease quibbling over some questionable occurrences of the distant past, a Biden/Harris ticket would be very attractive to a lot of voters.

[jeremyp]

It occurred to me the other day that if they could agree to cease quibbling over some questionable occurrences of the distant past, a Biden/Harris ticket would be very attractive to a lot of voters.

I agree and Joe could step down in his third year

[user4]

It occurred to me the other day that if they could agree to cease quibbling over some questionable occurrences of the distant past, a Biden/Harris ticket would be very attractive to a lot of voters.

actually it doesnt even mattet how hard they hit each other now, there will be plenty of time for the two top candidates to join forces. But honestly, when that time comes I doubt dusty delaware Joe will be around .

[Master Po]

I will vote for Democratic nominee Whoever when the time comes, but I don't think it will matter, as I expect Trump to be re-elected. Defeating an incumbent is difficult in any case, and the Democratic Party regularly proves itself to be the best gift the Republicans could ever wish for. Unless something really really significant occurs in the next 16 months to change Trump's fortunes, I expect him to be President for a second term.

[jeremyp]

Trump is the only POTUS whose popularity has never gone over 50%. It's been stuck in the low 40%. This means he's not gaining voters. What the Dems have to do is attract people who went from long time Dems to vote for him (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) and to get out the youth vote. Joe can get the former back if he keeps clear of promising the world. Pete can get out the latter, but he's not going anywhere until he interests the Blacks.
Too many men and conservative women are just not ready for a "strong" woman yet. Get a woman VP and then things might change.
In the end it is Trump himself who will decide the vote. He has many hurdles. The disastrous immigrant time bomb, Iran, the economy (which is too hot not to cool down). Global warming disasters are too far away. If his popularity doesn't budge he's in trouble....if people vote.

[Atticus]

Unless something really really significant occurs in the next 16 months to change Trump's fortunes, I expect him to be President for a second term.

I was so 100% positive that Trump was unelectable (I had him at 35% BEST) that I have lost all faith in logical outcomes, ergo, I agree with you.

[booond]

I was so 100% positive that Trump was unelectable (I had him at 35% BEST) that I have lost all faith in logical outcomes, ergo, I agree with you.

But you didn't count the Russians or James Comey or voter denial across the country. And 35% is a pretty good batting average.

[booond]

Biden is done. He's liked but his problem is he's old and sounds old. Bernie is old but doesn't sound it. Warren is going to be tough to beat. Harris has the Cali advantage in that Cali's primary is much sooner and she should siphon off plenty of votes. Mayor Pete does a good job on TV but might be a little too Mr. Rogers. Booker is the person to watch. Smart, personable, has good ideas, isn't as liberal as Bernie/Warren and people might think he's Obama #2.

Everyone else needs to find something else to run for.