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Who will be the Democratic Nominee?

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  • #16
    Originally posted by jeremyp View Post
    Trump is the only POTUS whose popularity has never gone over 50%. It's been stuck in the low 40%. This means he's not gaining voters. What the Dems have to do is attract people who went from long time Dems to vote for him (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) and to get out the youth vote. Joe can get the former back if he keeps clear of promising the world.
    Biden has serious shortcomings as a candidate, but that's pretty much the key to his electability argument. He's the right kind of candidate to appeal to lost voters and swing voters in the Midwest, and if Democrats can't flip those states back they're pretty much losing even if another candidate works better for turning out the base en masse elsewhere.

    (In theory, if Democrats won all the states from 2016, plus Arizona which could well be in play, plus either Florida or both North Carolina and Georgia, that would be enough without flipping anything in the Midwest. But Trump's popularity is holding up better in Florida than it is in the Midwest; so if the Democrats successfully flip Florida they probably flipped several other states too. Likewise, if the Democrats flip Georgia they're probably winning all over the place. And Democrats can't rely on all the states from 2016, even if they gain support overall.)

    Biden's certainly not the only candidate who'd play well in the Midwest; someone like Klobuchar could flip those states back; but Klobuchar isn't winning the nomination.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by jeremyp View Post
      Trump is the only POTUS whose popularity has never gone over 50%. It's been stuck in the low 40%. This means he's not gaining voters. What the Dems have to do is attract people who went from long time Dems to vote for him (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) and to get out the youth vote. Joe can get the former back if he keeps clear of promising the world.
      Biden has serious shortcomings as a candidate, but that's pretty much the key to his electability argument. He's the right kind of candidate to appeal to lost voters and swing voters in the Midwest, and if Democrats can't flip those states back they're pretty much losing even if another candidate works better for turning out the base en masse elsewhere.

      (In theory, if Democrats won all the states from 2016, plus Arizona which could well be in play, plus either Florida or both North Carolina and Georgia, that would be enough without flipping anything in the Midwest. But Trump's popularity is holding up better in Florida than it is in the Midwest; so if the Democrats successfully flip Florida they probably flipped several other states too. Likewise, if the Democrats flip Georgia they're probably winning all over the place. And Democrats can't rely on all the states from 2016, even if they gain support overall.)

      Biden's certainly not the only candidate who'd play well in the Midwest; someone like Klobuchar could flip those states back (and be sure of not losing Minnesota); but Klobuchar isn't winning the nomination.

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      • #18
        I think who the Democratic nominee will be is largely immaterial. 55-60% of polled population disapprove of Trump. The question is if they show up to vote.
        "A beautiful theory killed by an ugly fact."
        by Thomas Henry Huxley

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Pego View Post
          I think who the Democratic nominee will be is largely immaterial. 55-60% of polled population disapprove of Trump. The question is if they show up to vote.
          Who the Dem's nominee is will be instrumental in how many show up to vote.

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          • #20
            The Democratic nominee will likely only matter on the margins; but it's also very possible that the election will be decided on the margins; the last one was.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by 18.99s View Post
              Who the Dem's nominee is will be instrumental in how many show up to vote.
              Not sure that is the case as the hatred for Trump is immense.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by LopenUupunut View Post
                The Democratic nominee will likely only matter on the margins; but it's also very possible that the election will be decided on the margins; the last one was.
                The issue is how much the Russians, Israeli, Saudi, NK, and Chinese hackers can turn the vote, mess with voter registrations, and influence thoughts through a barrage of false propaganda.

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                • #23
                  Warren/Booker
                  Harris/Castro

                  Throw Mayor Pete in the mix as well.

                  Any combination of those (With the women top of ticket obvs).

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Flumpy View Post
                    Warren/Booker
                    Harris/Castro

                    Throw Mayor Pete in the mix as well.

                    Any combination of those (With the women top of ticket obvs).
                    Forgot Castro who is magnificently boring but did well in the debate.

                    Mayor Pete is such an interesting candidate I hope he lasts until we get to better debates.

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Flumpy View Post
                      Any combination of those (With the women top of ticket obvs).
                      It was be so karmic if a woman beats his misogynistic butt. He would stroke out.

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                      • #26
                        Its a long ways out, but I still think Biden wins this. As for the general election, who the heck knows.

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                          You know who I like? Kamala Effin Harris!
                          YAAASSSSS!!!!!!! Mark my words: Kamala will be the Dem nominee in 2020, and will subsequently be the first female President of the US.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                            It was be so karmic if a woman beats his misogynistic butt. He would stroke out.
                            And if he doesn't, is karma delayed?

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                            • #29
                              The virtue signaling is strong in this thread.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                I don't think she'll be the nominee but Tulsi Gabbard is my choice ideologically. We need someone to dismantle the Empire once and for all. I thinks it's interesting how China continues to prosper and grow without an empire, and in my lifetime their economy will surpass ours.

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