Bucking the odds

[eldrick]

i got that figure assuming 20 teams thruout the last 100y ( that figure has changed )

take the average no. of teams in past 100y: N

odds of them going back-to-back in '17/'18 are

~ 0.5 * [ N^2 / (N - 1) ]^2

then either not winning for 87y, you have to multiply by

~ [ N / ( N -2 ) ]^87

& then you finally multiply by first formula again ( as they've gone back to back again )

i can try to simplify it later

whoops ! now it's ~ 470,000,000 to 1

i give up

[Daisy]

Re: I'll bite

isn't this all assuming that each team has an equal chance of making the playoffs at least? If so then team's like the Brewers and Tampa will throw off your calculation since they have zero odds of making the playoffs. At least it looks that way.

[wineturtle]

Bookie makes money on the handle not the outcome

:mrgreen: once in 5,116,644 draws :wink:

[guru]

Re: I'll bite

2.5 gazillion to 6. Howz that?

Only if you include "and both teams are variants of mens hosiery"


Which I didn't, so you're a tad on the high side Honus :roll:

[Honusonthesound]

I'll bite

2.5 gazillion to 6. Howz that?

'course as any high school math student knows, that's got no bearing upon the actual game-by-game odds of on-the-field play. I'm likin' the Sox' odds against whichever team should emerge from the NL playoffs. With the ghost of Shoeless Joe roamin' left field, how can they lose?

[guru]

i'll go

~ 265,000 to 1

?

as 1st shot

Too low. It's over 1,000,000 to 1.

[eldrick]

i'll go

~ 265,000 to 1

?

as 1st shot

[guru]

SHOULD the White Sox go on to win the Series, the odds of two teams winning titles in 1917 & 1918, then not winning another title between them until they go back-to-back again in 2004 & 2005(Red Sox being the other team of course) are......

Why should I make it easy and tell you? YOU tell me 8) .


edit: I do know and will put it up if no one comes up with it, just curious if any math-types out there can get it.